Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

July 29, 2011Cumberland County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this special weather statement at Jul 29, 2011, 7:08 PM CDT for Cumberland County, Illinois. It was in force for 67 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2011, 7:08 PM CDT (00:08 UTC)
Expired: Jul 29, 2011, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 67 min
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL

County Cumberland County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1826 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 816 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 2.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 29, 6:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 29, 6:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PROGRESSED TO A LINE FROM NEAR KEOKUK TO
LAFAYETTE. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CU
DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND
INSTABILITY NOT NEARLY AS FAVORABLE AS FURTHER SOUTH. SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE INSTABILITY IS
GREATER...WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT SEEN IN THE SURFACE-BASED PORTION OF
THE PRECIPITATION. WITH A MORE HOSTILE AND CONVECTIVELY CONTAMINATED
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OVER CENTRAL IL...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
MENTION FOR THE FAR NORTH AFTER 00Z. MODEL DATA DOES NOT INDICATE
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SURVIVING AS FAR EAST AS THE IL RIVER.
MEANWHILE...A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY HAS EVOLVED SOUTH OF THE
THICK MID/HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS OF MORNING STORMS AND LIES FROM JUST
SOUTH OF ST. LOUIS TO TERRE HAUTE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CU HAS BEEN
BUILDING IN THIS AREA WHERE MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 3000
J/KG AND CINH IS WEAK. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NEGLIGIBLE THOUGH...SO
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DOWNBURSTS DUE TO PRECIPITATION
LOADING. WILL KEEP HEALTHY CHANCE POPS GOING DOWN THERE AS SHORT
RANGE RADAR SIMULATIONS DEVELOP DEEP MOIST CONVECTION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL BE COMING SOUTH WITH THE FRONT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70. SOME
AREAS MAY FOG UP WHERE SKIES CLEAR LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE
MAINLY AN AVIATION HAZARD SO WILL NOT MENTION IN PUBLIC GRIDS UNLESS
WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE BECOME LIKELY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING...SUFFICIENT PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR STORMS
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

ONCE THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING...A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE HOLD FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RATHER WEAK...SO ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DRIER...AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WARM UP WILL BEGIN IN ERNEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BOOST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 TO 110...AND AN ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BECOME FLATTER. THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION WITH CANADA. THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN IL BEFORE STALLING
OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS LIGHT PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT CLOSER TO THE RIDGE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...
WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY HANGING AROUND A FEW DAYS
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT COMES TO A HALT. THIS IS ASSUMING THE
FRONT DOES INDEED TURN STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN IL. A MINORITY OF
THE LONGER RANGE MODELS REBUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND
PLACES THE MIDWEST WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD GIVE A
FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT. SINCE A FLATTER RIDGE IS THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...WILL HAVE CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT THIS EVENING...THEN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WILL BE WITH LATE NIGHT FOG. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAS A WEAK COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
STILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AT BMI AND PIA BUT EXPECT THOSE TO
GIVE WAY TO SOME VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TRACK ACRS THE AREA. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT LATE TNT ALLOWING
FOR THE PSBLTY OF SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AFTR 08Z. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF SATURDAY MRNG AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF A NORTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTION...AND THEN EAST AT 10 KTS OR LESS ON SATURDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ062-063-066>068-
071>073.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 29, 3:09 PM CDT, 3 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-301100-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ040>057-061-301100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-
MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-301100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
309 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 105 DEGREES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY...BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE TUESDAY WHEN HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMB WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 29, 1:50 PM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
150 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ROANOKE                 40.80N 89.20W
07/29/2011  M1.20 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BRADFORD                41.18N 89.66W
07/29/2011  M1.11 INCH       STARK              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W PRINCEVILLE         40.93N 89.79W
07/29/2011  M1.54 INCH       PEORIA             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0616 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ABINGDON            40.82N 90.40W
07/29/2011                   KNOX               IL   MESONET

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. SWOP

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     YATES CITY              40.78N 90.01W
07/29/2011                   KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NUMEROUS CORN FIELDS FLATTENED BY STRONG THUNDERSTORM
            WINDS AROUND YATES CITY.

0630 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ELMWOOD                 40.78N 89.97W
07/29/2011                   PEORIA             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 8 IN ELMWOOD.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       KNOXVILLE               40.91N 90.29W
07/29/2011  M1.01 INCH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

            RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 5 AM TO 7 AM. SWOP

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW CAMP GROVE         41.06N 89.66W
07/29/2011  M1.03 INCH       STARK              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NE DAHINDA            40.96N 90.09W
07/29/2011  M1.64 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0704 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GILSON                  40.87N 90.20W
07/29/2011  M2.11 INCH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

            SWOP REPORT

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
07/29/2011  M1.00 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   MESONET

            TOTAL MORNING RAINFALL. SWOP.

&&

BARNES

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 5:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
528 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ILZ057-063-292330-
CLARK-EDGAR-
528 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN EDGAR COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARSHALL...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM IN ADDITION TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARSHALL...
  OLIVER...
  DENNISON...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3935 8753 3933 8755 3933 8759 3931 8784
      3945 8787 3954 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 255DEG 14KT 3939 8776

SMITH

Special weather statement, Jul 29, 7:08 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
708 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

ILZ061>063-067-300115-
CLARK-CUMBERLAND-JASPER-SHELBY-
708 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN
JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

AT 706 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR STEWARDSON...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF
EFFINGHAM...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. RAINFALL RATES WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEOGA...
  TOLEDO...
  JEWETT...
  GREENUP...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...TROWBRIDGE...SIGEL AND WOODBURY.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3917 8802 3918 8847 3922 8847 3922 8855
      3934 8863 3937 8801
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 268DEG 9KT 3925 8854

SMITH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 29, 7:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Cumberland, Effingham, Shelby	62 min
Jul 29, 7:32 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Coles, Cumberland	6 hr
Jul 29, 8:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Crawford, Jasper	52 min
Jul 29, 8:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Jasper	26 min
Jul 29, 9:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Crawford, Lawrence	59 min
Jul 29, 9:06 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILX	Clark, Crawford, Cumberland, Effingham, Jasper	6 hr
Jul 29, 9:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Crawford, Jasper, Lawrence, Richland	52 min
Jul 29, 9:17 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Clark, Crawford, Jasper	6 hr
Jul 30, 1:25 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	ILX	Cumberland	6 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2011 Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.