Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 249 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

A RETURN TO HOT CONDITIONS WILL HIGHLIGHT THE WEEKS FORECAST.
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY HAS LEFT
OUR DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALREADY TODAY...WITH A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS SHOULD NOT RISE MUCH
MORE...BUT TEMPS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 90 TODAY TO 90 TO 95 WED
AND THURS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL COME CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA EACH DAY /105-110F/...BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
POINT.

A ROBUST CU FIELD DEVELOPED TODAY...WHICH WORKED TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPS IN CHECK AFTER AROUND NOON. THAT CU FIELD REDEVELOPMENT ON
WED AND THURS MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLL IN KEEPING OUR HIGH TEMPS JUST
LOW ENOUGH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NEEDED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXTENDING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR DOWN ALONG THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER TO MISSISSIPPI.
WIND SPEEDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF INSTABILITY AND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS ISOLATED STORMS THAT ROLLED SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS HAVE ALREADY REDEVELOPED NEAR THAT
BOUNDARY AT 2 PM...AND THAT ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING.
LATER TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE EAST...CLOSER
TO THE RIDGE AXIS WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND WED...WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEIGHT RISES AND WARMER
AIR TEMPS. ONE SAVING GRACE WILL BE A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
OVER THE RIDGE AS IT BUILDS NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SHOULD HELP
TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP OUR AREA FROM
GETTING INTO THE VERY HOT AIRMASS.

IT APPEARS THE STORMS FROM THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR AREA...SO WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING.

ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES BEHIND THE WED SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE RIDGE
FROM BUILDING FARTHER NORTH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER RESULT
OF THE WAVES WILL BE A REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ON
THURSDAY...WITH A STORM TRACK ACROSS OUR NW COUNTIES. WE KEPT
CHANCE POPS FROM CANTON TO PEORIA AND NORTHWEST FOR THURS...THEN
EXPANDED THE CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTHEAST THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY
IN CONCERT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION. MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE SCATTERED STORMS
PROGRESSING WITH THE FRONT.

PW VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...CAUSING SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ANY STORMS WILL WORK TO KEEP THE HEAT IN CHECK...WHICH COMPLICATES
TRYING TO PREDICT WHERE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED WED-
THUR...AND EVEN FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST OF I-70 WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF REACHING CRITERIA THROUGH THE TIME.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE FRONT SHOULD BE INTO SOUTHEAST IL. STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE SE THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-70. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. DEWPOINTS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 BY SUNDAY.

HOWEVER...MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS BACK IN THE L-M 70S. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT TRIES TO REACH NW IL ON TUESDAY...SO STORMS MAY ARRIVE FOR
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

SHIMON
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

SCATTERED TO BROKEN TOWER CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS WITH BASES FROM
3.5-5K FT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL TERMINAL
AIRPORTS. TROPICAL AIRMASS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES PEAKING FROM
4000 TO 5000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX AROUND -10C. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS NEAR I-74 AND WILL DISSIPATE/WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL IL
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT SLOWLY PRESSES SOUTH. VERY WEAK LIFT ALONG
WITH BOUNDARY AND VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SO ONLY EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND
DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL FROM I-74 SOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE TOO ISOLATED (LESS THAN
30%) TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH RADAR CLOSELY.
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY SUNSET LEAVING FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST AIR MASS TO DEVELOP LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR VSBYS UNTIL 14 OR 15Z. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN AFTER 15Z/10 AM WED WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS
BY LATE WED MORNING. STRONG 592 500 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO EXPAND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WED AND KEEP
CONVECTION CHANCES NORTH OF CENTRAL IL WED.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
406 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047-048-271100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
406 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR UNTIL SUNSET. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW BUT GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO
105 DEGREES WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...IN AREAS WHERE
STORMS DO NOT OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ044>046-049>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
406 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW...THOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE LIKELY EACH
AFTERNOON...FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A
COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GEELHART

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
428 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     EMDEN                   40.30N 89.49W
07/26/2011                   LOGAN              IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OCCURRING ALONG BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. SEVERAL REPORTS
            FROM NWS EMPLOYEES AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

&&

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
429 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

ILZ037-038-041>043-048-262330-
TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-MENARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...HAVANA...LINCOLN
429 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...FUNNEL CLOUDS SIGHTED OVER NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY...

AT 425 PM...WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEES AND TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS
REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR EMDEN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTH OF
LINCOLN.

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES EXIST OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS...FROM STORMS THAT
HAVE OCCURRED THE LAST FEW HOURS. THESE BOUNDARIES FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS AND OTHER CIRCULATIONS.

LOW HANGING CLOUDS CAN ALSO APPEAR TO DIP UP AND DOWN AT
TIMES...BUT THEY WILL NOT SHOW SIGNS OF ANY RAPID ROTATION. AN
ACTUAL FUNNEL CLOUD WILL EXHIBIT SPINNING IN A COUNTER CLOCKWISE
DIRECTION.

IN RARE INSTANCES THESE FUNNELS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCHDOWN. STAY ALERT
AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A SAFE SHELTER IF A FUNNEL CLOUD APPROACHES
THE GROUND.

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
435 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             ELKHART                 40.02N 89.48W
07/26/2011  E0.50 INCH       LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GEELHART

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
457 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

ILZ045-262230-
CHAMPAIGN-
457 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SIDNEY...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CHAMPAIGN...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BROADLANDS...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3988 8796 3988 8826 4009 8820 4008 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 016DEG 21KT 3999 8810

GEELHART