Alert archive / Illinois / Special Weather Statements in 2011

Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

July 11, 2011Schuyler County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this special weather statement at Jul 11, 2011, 6:53 AM CDT for Schuyler County, Illinois. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 11, 2011, 6:53 AM CDT (11:53 UTC)
Expired
Jul 11, 2011, 7:45 AM CDT
In force
52 min
Issued by
NWS Lincoln, IL

County Schuyler County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2011-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3733 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2011-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 84 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3733 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-2 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
850 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
165 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.4
Supercell composite
14.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 11, 5:53 AM CDT, 1 hour earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 5:53 AM CDT, 1 hour before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TODAY...AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE WELL
ABOVE 100 DEGREES. FURTHER OUT...ATTENTION TURNS TO CONVECTION
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM MINNESOTA TO NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A 35 TO 40KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SCENARIO PARTICULARLY
WELL...SO SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL BE BASED PRIMARILY ON LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS BASIC CONCEPTUAL MODELS.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. VERY WARM/SUBSIDENT AIR BENEATH THIS RIDGE HAS
CREATED A HEALTHY CAP...CHARACTERIZED BY 700MB TEMPS OF 14 TO 16C.
CAP IS WEAKER FURTHER NORTH FROM MINNESOTA E/SE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THINK THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY ZONE OF CONVECTION TODAY.
EARLY MORNING STORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL LIKELY TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...POSSIBLY
BRUSHING THE FAR NORTHERN KILX CWA. AFTER THAT...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE HARD TO COME BY TODAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED.
THINK MOST LOGICAL MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE LOCAL WRF...WHICH KEEPS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AFTER 18Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY DROP INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY...MAINLY TO FOCUS HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-74. HAVE BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER
SOUTH.

BIG STORY TODAY WILL BE THE HEAT...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. DEWPOINTS REACHED THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF AN ADVANCING
WARM FRONT...AND EXPECT SIMILAR READINGS TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH POTENTIALLY
HIGHER NUMBERS IN EXCESS OF 110 SOUTH OF I-70. WILL THEREFORE
EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THE ENTIRE AREA...INCLUDING
PEORIA/GALESBURG WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN LEFT OUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING POTENTIAL OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORM
COMPLEX ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
AREAS SOUTH OF I-70...AS THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING THERE.

COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH...WILL FEATURE CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SPC HAS INDICATED SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THINK MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MAY ALSO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH A FEW OF
THE STORMS...BUT OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY NOT BE THAT
GREAT. FRONT WILL GET PUSHED FURTHER SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING
A COOLER/LESS HUMID E/NE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HIGH TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. AFTER THAT...UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST WITH GUSTO OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING A 599DM HIGH CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS RISE AND THE FRONT
GETS PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD...MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 550 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING
ACRS THE NORTH...AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO CENTRAL IL.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRACK ENE ACRS EASTERN IOWA WITH THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT PIA AS THEY WILL BE
THE CLOSEST TO THE ACTIVITY AND MAY BE AFFECTED BY THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN THE 12Z-14Z TIME FRAME. FURTHER SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY WELL CAPPED WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER FROM 850-700 MB.
LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND HAZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE ANY TSRA TODAY. AFTR 20Z ACRS THE PIA AREA...IT APPEARS
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
BREAK THE CAP AND BRING AT LEAST WDLY SCT TSRA TO THE AREA. FOR
NOW WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT PIA AND BMI AFTR 19Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY.
SCATTERED TSRA PSBL INTO THIS EVENING WITH A DIURNAL WEAKENING
TREND EXPCTD AFTR 03Z. MVFR VSBYS PSBL AGAIN LATE TNT IN FOG/HZ.
SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AT AROUND 10 KTS
AND THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTN AT 10
TO 15 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT WILL TREND MORE TOWARDS A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.

SMITH
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 11, 5:00 AM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
500 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>042-047>051-121100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
500 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A
FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HAVANA DOWNSTREAM WILL
REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 92 IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 102 IN
THE SOUTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAY BE SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FROM 300 PM UNTIL 900 PM.

ILZ043>046-052>057-061-121100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MACON-MOULTRIE-
PIATT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
500 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO 105 TO 110 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SLIGHT COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF BETWEEN 96 AND 102 DEGREES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE WEAK COOL FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. A FEW
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE SEVERE
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRIMARILY FROM 400 PM UNTIL 10 PM.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-121100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
500 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 106 TO 111 DEGREES.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON
TUESDAY BUT BY WEDNESDAY...A COOL FRONT MAY BRING SOME TEMPORARY
RELIEF TO THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT EDGES SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING FROM DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 600 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

SMITH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 11, 6:53 AM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
653 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

ILZ036-040-041-047-111245-
CASS-FULTON-MASON-SCHUYLER-
653 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CASS...SCHUYLER...
SOUTHWESTERN FULTON AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM
CDT...

AT 649 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSHVILLE...
  BROWNING...
  ASTORIA...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...FREDERICK...SNICARTE AND BLUFF
CITY.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4034 9025 4006 9015 3999 9061 4002 9062
      4005 9068 4007 9068 4008 9071 4010 9071
      4010 9077 4015 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1152Z 262DEG 32KT 4008 9064

SMITH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 11, 7:15 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementILXFulton60 min
Jul 11, 2:14 PM CDTExcessive Heat WarningILXClay, Crawford, Effingham, Jasper, Lawrence, Richland29 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Illinois, 2011Every special weather statement in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.