Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
914 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 913 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

TWO BOW ECHOES CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA TONIGHT. THE
FIRST ONE IS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA WITHIN AN HOUR. A LARGER BOW
ECHO...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...IS TIMED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z. WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE INCREASING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...WITH
THE WESTERN BOW RACING ALONG AT 60-65 MPH.

FORECAST UPDATES HAVE BEEN TO REFINE THE RAIN TOTALS AND POPS.
OTHER PARTS OF THE FORECAST CURRENTLY STILL LOOK ON TRACK. GRID
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT...AND NEW ZONES WILL BE SENT SOON.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN AND ITS AFFECT ON CIGS/VSBYS LATE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH ACRS CENTRAL MO LATE THIS AFTN AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACRS CENTRAL IOWA
LATE THIS AFTN AND EXPECT THAT TO FILL IN FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
APPROACH PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL IL AFTR 02Z...AFFECTING PRIMARILY
SPI LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS THEN EXPCTD
TO PUSH SE INTO THE AREA AFTR 06Z AND PRODUCE MVFR CIGS FOR A
BRIEF TIME...WITH CMI THE LAST TO SEE THE ACTIVITY...PROBABLY NOT
IN THEIR AREA UNTIL AFTR 09Z.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFF TO OUR EAST DURING THE
MORNING WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME LATE IN THE AFTN. FOR THAT REASON...WL ONLY
INCLUDE A VCTS/CB GROUP FOR LATE AFTN. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT...BUT BRIEFLY STRONGER IN ANY
INTENSE STORM THAT MAY PUSH ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 15 KTS.

SMITH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 305 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COMPLEX MULTI-BOUNDARY SURFACE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST AS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MODULATE THE WEAK SYNOPTIC
FEATURES. ONE OF THE MORE RELEVANT BOUNDARIES IS A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN IL NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE...WITH
STRONGER STORMS OVER THE SD/NEB AREA WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS
STRONGER. MCS DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TONIGHT OVER THAT AREA WITH
THE COMPLEX RIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF IL LATE TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS...SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
WHERE FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ALREADY LOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MORE INFORMATION ON THAT IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION
BELOW. SINCE THE AFFECTS OF TONIGHT/S STORMS ON THE WEATHER MONDAY
IS UNCLEAR IN THE MORNING...WENT WITH A GENERAL HEALTHY CHANCE POP.
BY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WHICH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER UPSWING IN STORM COVERAGE. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE PUT LIKELY
POPS OVER THE WEST HALF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY EVENING. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WITH IT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE MADE TUESDAY DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.
THIS WILL BE THE START OF A WELCOME STRETCH OF MAINY DRY WEATHER
WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WORKWEEK.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN FOR
THE LONG TERM. THIS FEATURES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES ALONG THE NORTHERN
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND TOPS THE RIDGE...
REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THIS TIMING WAS ALSO
SEEN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS GOING FOR SATURDAY. SOME MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE MAY SPREAD BACK WESTWARD ON SUNDAY...PLACING IL IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE FRONT MIGHT CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE RIDGE IN
PLACE A LITTLE LONGER AND TURNS THE SURFACE FRONT STATIONARY OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SINCE LONG RANGE MODELS TYPICALLY HAVE TROUBLE
RESOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES THAT FAR IN ADVANCE... WILL KEEP
20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AND REEVALUATE AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE OF MODEL
RUNS.

04

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ILZ040-047-049>051.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ILZ029-036-037-041-271100-
FULTON-MASON-PEORIA-TAZEWELL-
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING...AS STORM A COMPLEX MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE
WEST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN
WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES.

MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...DOWNSTREAM OF PEORIA...WILL REMAIN
IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND ALSO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ILZ040-047-049-050-271100-
CASS-MORGAN-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING...AS STORM A COMPLEX MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE
WEST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN
WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES.

MUCH OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...DOWNSTREAM OF PEORIA...WILL REMAIN
IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND ALSO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ILZ027-028-030-031-038-042>046-048-052>057-061>063-066>068-073-
271100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-KNOX-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SHELBY-STARK-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING...AS STORM A COMPLEX MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE
WEST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN
WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND ALSO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ILZ051-271100-
SANGAMON-
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING...AS STORM A COMPLEX MOVES INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS FROM THE
WEST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN
WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND ALSO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ILZ071-072-271100-
CLAY-RICHLAND-
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS
EVENING...AS STORM A COMPLEX MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS FROM THE
WEST. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE FLASH FLOODING...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED PLENTY OF RAIN
WILL NEED TO REMAIN PARTICULARLY ALERT TO FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBILITIES.

THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER NEAR CLAY CITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN THIS EVENING AND ALSO
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

ILZ027-036-041-270400-
FULTON-KNOX-MASON-
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FULTON...KNOX AND NORTHERN MASON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 955 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MONMOUTH TO INDUSTRY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

PEOPLE IN FULTON...KNOX AND MASON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
AVON...VERMONT...ABINGDON...ASTORIA...IPAVA...KNOXVILLE...LONDON
MILLS...GILSON...CUBA AND FAIRVIEW...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN. TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

LAT...LON 4114 9000 4063 8999 4062 8996 4044 8994
      4020 9017 4020 9042 4029 9045 4116 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 270DEG 27KT 4085 9054 4035 9054

SMITH