Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
312 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 310 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

INITIAL FORECAST CONCERN IS STRONG MCS OVER CENTRAL IL THIS
MORNING AND DEALING WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN AREAS.
REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN IL WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. 00Z MODELS TAKE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THU KEEPING MOST OF ITS CONVECTION NORTH OF CENTRAL IL.
WARM FRONT COMING BACK NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL IL TO RETURN CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH MORE MCS
ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL DURING THIS FATHERS DAY
WEEKEND TO RETURN SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WHICH LINGERS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS SIMILAR EXCEPT MAV
TRENDING WARMER THU/FRI OVER CENTRAL IL AND USED A BLEND HERE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

MCS OVER CENTRAL/NW IL INTO EASTERN IA AND CENTRAL MO WITH LEADING
EDGE OF CONVECTION APPROACHING I-57. STRONGER CELLS PRODUCED PEA
TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL INCLUDING AT OUR NWS OFFICE IN LINCOLN AT 219
AM. VERY HEAVY RAINS AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WITH RAINFALL RATES AS
HIGH AS 1-1.25 INCH PER HOUR IN STRONGER STORMS. PEORIA HAD 2.21
INCHES IN THE PAST TWO HOURS. FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
ALONG AND NW OF THE IL RIVER BETWEEN 2 AND 8 AM. WILL CONTINUE THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTERN AREAS UNTIL 7 AM. EASTERN AREAS FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE HIGHER WHICH HAVE NOT SEEN NEARLY AS
MUCH RAIN WAS WESTERN AREAS YESTERDAY MORNING. CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AS MCS WEAKENS AT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 1009
MB LOW OVER CENTRAL IA THROUGH CENTRAL MO TO MOVE EAST ACROSS IL.
SPC HAS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE WABASH RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KY AND
MID/EASTERN TN. HIGHS TODAY 75 TO 80F WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL IL AND MID 80S SE IL FOR MID JUNE.

LINGERED JUST A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
MID EVENING OVER EASTERN IL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES EAST OF IL.
OTHERWISE DRY ACROSS CENTRAL IL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NW AND
LOWER 60S SE IL.

CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TO TRACK
ESE INTO WI OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT AND SOUTHERN LOWER MI BY THU
AFTERNOON. MOST OF ITS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY NE OF
CENTRAL IL THU...THOUGH DID CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THU AFTERNOON NE AREAS. SPC HAS 5% RISK FROM
CHAMPAIGN TO TERRE HAUTE NE THU AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP HIGHS BACK TO
NORMAL THU IN THE LOWER 80S CENTRAL IL AND MID 80S SE IL.

FOR THU NIGHT KEEP BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF CENTRAL IL WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT
WESTERN AREAS. THIS IS DUE TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE MO
VALLEY AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SW OF IL.

CARRIED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI ESPECIALLY BY
FRI AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FROM CHAMPAIGN NE DUE TO
APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE SW. SPC HAS A 5% RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER IL...WHILE 15% RISK OVER THE
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SPEED OF THIS
WARM FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL IL LATE THIS WEEK. BUT THIS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY
FRI INTO FATHERS DAY WEEKEND. SEASONABLE HIGHS FRI IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S AGAIN.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO IL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RETURN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THINKING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL IL SAT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SHIFTING MORE INTO NORTHERN IL SUNDAY AND
INTO WI MON AS TEMPS HEAT UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. 00Z ECMWF MODEL HAS
TRENDED SLOWER WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROF MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING IL WED WITH
QPF. 00Z GFS MOVES THIS SYSTEM INTO IL A DAY SOONER ON TUE.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUE AND
TUE NIGHT.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1202 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM INTO WESTERN IL AT THIS TIME.
EASTWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN SLOW THIS EVENING...BUT EXPECT THIS TO
SPEED UP SOON AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ENTERING NORTHWEST MO GIVES STORMS
A KICK. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH
DAWN LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR NORTHEASTWARD INTO
AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY HAVE STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL. TOWARD 09Z-12Z...STRONG STORMS MAY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN
AREA OF LIGHTER RAIN...THUS INCREASING THE AVIATION HAZARD. DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE HAS PROGRESSED INTO EASTERN KS AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO IL AFTER 12Z...PUSHING MOST OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF
THE AREA BY 15Z. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MO SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN OK WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL IL
18Z-21Z WED...WHICH WILL BRING DEEPER LAYER DRYING/SUBSIDENCE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PD.

04
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ036-040-041-
047>052.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
211 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 AM     HAIL             ELKHART                 40.02N 89.48W
06/15/2011  E0.88 INCH       LOGAN              IL   MESONET

&&

BAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
218 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 AM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 40.15N 89.37W
06/15/2011  M0.88 INCH       LOGAN              IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

&&

BAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
221 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

ILZ038-042-043-150800-
DE WITT-LOGAN-MCLEAN-
221 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MCLEAN...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN DE WITT COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 218 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLOOMINGTON...ALSO MOVING
NORTHEAST.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. WINDS AROUND
50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

PEOPLE IN DE WITT...LOGAN AND MCLEAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF LINCOLN...ATLANTA...WAYNESVILLE...MCLEAN AND BLOOMINGTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4062 8857 4062 8849 4056 8846 4003 8931
      4020 8940 4075 8881 4075 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 226DEG 31KT 4017 8932

CHURCHILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
302 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PEORIA                  40.74N 89.61W
06/15/2011  M2.30 INCH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

            4 HOUR TOTAL SINCE 11 PM TUESDAY.

&&

BAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
431 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

ILZ044-045-151030-
CHAMPAIGN-PIATT-
431 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAMPAIGN AND SOUTHERN PIATT
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 427 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEMENT...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TOLONO...
  SEYMOUR...
  SAVOY...
  URBANA...
  CHAMPAIGN...
  PHILO...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...MILMINE...IVESDALE...SADORUS...
WILLARD AIRPORT...FLATVILLE AND ROYAL.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4011 8794 3988 8838 3988 8846 3983 8847
      3979 8854 3979 8858 3992 8871 4040 8798
      4040 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0931Z 232DEG 38KT 3990 8854

BAK