Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

MCS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH AN INTENSE BOW ECHO JUST
CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM IOWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. MAIN STORY FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA ALREADY IN THE LOWER 80S.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
THOSE TO BE AFFECTED BY THE RAIN.

GEELHART

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL INTO MID MORNING THROUGH
ABOUT 14Z-15Z (9-10 AM) WITH LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND LOWEST AT
BMI. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR INTO MID MORNING AT PIA AND
BMI WITH THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY NEAR PEKIN AND JUST NORTH OF
NORMAL AND MOVING NE. A LARGER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORSM OVER CENTRAL AND SW IA INTO FAR NW MO WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL BETWEEN 14-18Z AND POSSIBLY
REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS PIA AND BMI WITH IFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION INTO MIDDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY NORTH OF THE I-72 TAF SITES THIS
MORNING WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AS WARM
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF I-72 LIFT NORTH TOWARD THROUGH CENTRAL IL BY
LATE MORNING AND NEARING I-80 DURING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT E/NE
WINDS TO TURN BREEZY SOUTH BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS BY AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION STAYING NORTH OF CENTRAL
IL CLOSER TO WARM FRONT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO
DIMINISH TO 12-15 KTS BY SUNSET.

HUETTL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2011
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM MORE CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM
FRONT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WEATHER THIS MORNING AS THE SFC
REFLECTION TO THE SOUTH SAGS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS A LITTLE BIT
BEHIND THE 925 MB FRONT...WHERE CONVECTION IS FIRING IN RESPONSE
TO A LLJ AND WAVE PUSHING OUT OF THE PLAINS. THIS CONVECTION...ITS
EVOLUTION INTO ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER LATER
THIS MORNING...IS THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST. NEXT WILL BE
THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE INTO A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS EXPECTED AS A LOW DIGS IN OVER THE DESERT SW.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING ON THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IN CONCERT
WITH THE LLJ ENHANCEMENT TO THE WEST. NAM/WRF BRINGS A ROUND OF
PRECIP IN WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE OUT
OF NEBRASKA SLOWLY PROGRESSES TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING/NEAR NOON. TROUBLE IS THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE WITH THE ATMOSPHERE ALREADY BEING WORKED
OVER WITH THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY. WITH WEAK WAVES JUST TO THE WEST
AND SW WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OVER THE WEST COAST...NOT
WILLING TO PULL ANY POPS OUT UNTIL WELL UNDER THE DEVELOPING RIDGE
LATER IN THE EVENING.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
PACIFIC COAST LOW DEEPENING RAPIDLY...EVIDENT FROM INCREDIBLE
SPEED SHEAR/CYCLONIC INFLUENCE ON SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...GOING
FROM 40KTS TO OVER 120KTS IN A MATTER OF VERY FEW MILES. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES...PUSHING UP INTO THE
MIDWEST KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE FIRST FIVE DAYS MORE OR LESS
DRY AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT IT WILL
NOT BE HUMID. ALREADY A BIT MOISTURE RICH...WILL LIKELY SEE THE
DWPTS HOLD IN THE 60S THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE
LOW 90S. CONCERN THAT THE MOS/MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT WARM ENOUGH
AND THAT THE TEMPS HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT. COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TRIES TO
MAKE IT THOUGH THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOVING A WEAK FRONT
INTO A 596 DM 500 MB HIGH...FEEL THAT THE MORE SCANT THE
POPS...THE BETTER. FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS UP FOR
DEBATE...BUT EITHER WAY...A BOUNDARY WILL EXIST TO FOCUS ANY
ACTIVITY THAT FIRES AND JUST NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL
ENTIRELY AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUES/TUES
NIGHT... PARTICULARLY TUE/TUE NIGHT.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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