Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 843 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

MAIN COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM MOLINE
TO WEST OF QUINCY. A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN SEEN AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM NORTHEASTERN OK AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. OTHER WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM PITTSFIELD
TOWARD PEORIA...AND ALSO ROUGHLY ALONG I-55...ARE ALSO SEEING
DEVELOPMENT. CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH MEAN STORM MOTIONS NORTHEASTWARD AT
AROUND 50 MPH. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN PLACE AS THE STORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET KICKS IN AND FORCES MORE PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

04
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

LEAD SURFACE BOUNDARY/DRY LINE EXTENDS FROM MLI-EOK-COU AND WILL ACT
AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION ALREADY STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE...WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINE. EXPECT STORM
CHANCES TO INCREASE AT PIA BY 01Z...THEN PROGRESS THROUGH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND REACHING CMI AROUND 04Z. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CATCH UP WITH THE DRYLINE AND
CLEAR OUT THE PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND 06Z AT PIA. AFTER A
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A VFR DRY SLOT...WRAP-AROUND LOW CLOUDS WILL
COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A CHANCE
THAT CEILINGS COULD RISE INTO THE VFR RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON.

04
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 229 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL HAS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
OUTLOOKS. OUR ENTIRE AREA STILL REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK...MAINLY
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE HIGHER TORNADO THREAT AREA
HAS SHIFTED NORTH INTO WI/E MN...CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. FOR OUR AREA...THE CAP APPEARS TO
REMAIN STRONG UNTIL MID EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. THEN STORMS WILL
ERUPT OVER WEST CENTRAL IL AND MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR CWA...EVOLVING
INTO A LINE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR OUR AREA
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER, BUT THE LONG TRACK STRONG
TORNADOES WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT WISCONSIN...WHERE THE MODERATE RISK
IS CENTERED.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH AND SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OUR AREA IS FIRMLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH OUR 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING 20C AIR TEMPS AT 800 MB AND
12C AT 700MB. THAT AMOUNT OF WARM AIR WILL BE HARD TO ERODE THROUGH
JUST PRE-FRONTAL DYNAMICS...SO OUR STORM INITIATION IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL MOST LIKELY DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT BY 9 PM.
THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
EAST...BUT SPEED SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA...AND 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 65 KT.

PLENTY OF SURFACE WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WITH AIR COLUMN PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING THREAT
WILL BE HIGHER SE OF I-70 WHERE THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STORM
TRACKS WILL BECOME MORE 'TRAINING' IN ORIENTATION.

SINCE OUR INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE THE CAP...THE STORMS
WILL HAVE TROUBLE TAPPING INTO THE SURFACE WARMTH/MOISTURE. UPDRAFTS
IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER /EML/ ABOVE THE CAP WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAMAGING WINDS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SINCE THE CAP WILL RISE AND THE LIFTED CONDENSATION
LEVEL /LCL/ WILL LOWER WITH TIME. THAT WILL ALLOW ANY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS DURING THE INITIATION PHASE TO BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED
AS A SQUALL LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OUR WEATHER STORY GRAPHIC HAS A
GOOD OVERVIEW OF STORM TIMING AND HAZARD COVERAGE TONIGHT.
BASICALLY...THE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 01Z-04Z WEST OF
JACKSONVILLE TO PEORIA...03Z-06Z CENTRAL CWA...06Z-09Z EASTERN
CWA...WITH STORMS/RAIN LINGERING SE OF I-70 INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE
TO A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING NE ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

THAT WAVE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON MONDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-70. LOWER CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE
BACK AS FAR AS I-55 DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY AFTERNOON RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AT 2.5-4K FEET...AND
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHORT WAVES PASSING OVER THE COLDER LOW LEVEL
AIR. WE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AND CHANCE POPS EAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT POP UP ON THE COLD
AIR.

WINDS ON MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER ISSUE...AS WEST WINDS INCREASE TO
20-30 MPH BY MIDDAY. WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY CLIMB OVER 30 MPH.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...ALL PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD COME TO AN
END...AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS FROM TUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING OUR AREA LATER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM
THE PLAINS INTO MISSOURI. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OCCLUDING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SOME VERY CHILLY AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...WITH A COUPLE
OF MODELS TRYING TO SPIT OUT SOME SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. IT TAKES A
LOT OF COLD AIR FOR SNOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WE WILL NOT JUMP ON
THAT JUST YET. HOWEVER...ITS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT LOWS WILL DIP
INTO THE 30S FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
321 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-111100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
321 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES REMAIN FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

ILZ038-042-043-051>053-111100-
CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-SANGAMON-
321 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES REMAIN FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
321 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...THEN WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 2 AM.

BARNES

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
950 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

ILZ029>031-036-037-110330-
FULTON-MARSHALL-PEORIA-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
950 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
TAZEWELL...NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD...PEORIA AND SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 949 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST. DAVID...OR NEAR CANTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN FULTON...MARSHALL...PEORIA...TAZEWELL AND WOODFORD
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ST. DAVID...CANTON...GLASFORD...
HANNA CITY...BARTONVILLE...BELLEVUE...WEST PEORIA...PEORIA...
GERMANTOWN HILLS AND SPRING BAY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4099 8955 4084 8928 4040 9001 4055 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 229DEG 51KT 4052 8998

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
955 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

ILZ036-037-040>042-047-110345-
CASS-FULTON-LOGAN-MASON-SCHUYLER-TAZEWELL-
955 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MASON...NORTHWESTERN CASS...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN...SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER...SOUTHERN FULTON AND
SOUTHERN TAZEWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 953 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RUSHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE IN CASS...FULTON...NORTHWEST LOGAN...MASON...SCHUYLER AND
TAZEWELL COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
BROWNING...BATH...HAVANA...MANITO...GREEN VALLEY AND SOUTH
PEKIN...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4052 8966 4032 8949 3997 9050 4012 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 240DEG 57KT 4010 9045

SMITH