Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
606 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 332 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SFC AND UPPER
AIR PATTERN...BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS WITH TEMP PROFILES AND
LOCATION OF GREATEST QPF. MAIN CONCERN IS THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE AFFECTING THE CWA TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...WITH A WIDE
RANGE OF WEATHER.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOW PRSS AREA IN EASTERN CO WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
AND REACH SOUTHEASTERN IL BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN WESTERN PA BY
TOMORROW MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND PCPN WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WHILE CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. FORCING APPEARS
TO BE CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...BUT WITH CONVECTION
AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...WILL LEAVE HIGH POPS IN
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. PCPN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SMALL...MAYBE...3HR PERIOD OF A MIX RAIN/SNOW AND
SLEET. FREEZING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE IF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THE
SURFACE BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. BELIEVE THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO WILL NOT ADDED ANY FREEZING RAIN AT
THIS TIME. CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST AND TOMORROW MORNING IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS WILL BE SMALL AND THINKING OF A HALF INCH OR
LESS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST COULD RECEIVE
UP TO AN INCH BY MORNING. PCPN WILL END BY NOON ACROSS THE AREA.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION SO NOW WINTER
HEADLINE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED WILL
CAUSE RISES IN AREA RIVERS. ALREADY HAVE ESF OUT SO WILL KEEP THAT
GOING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE LOOKS HIGH ENOUGH...AND STORMS SHOULD
BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH...THAT FLASH FLOOD WATCH DOES NOT SEEM
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH
PRSS PUSHES INTO THE AREA AND SLIDES EAST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BE DRY AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE
CUTOFF FROM THE SYSTEM.

TEMPS WILL WARM TONIGHT BUT REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY GIVEN ALL THE
PCPN...CLOUDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TOMORROW. COOLER TEMPS
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WARMING BACK UP AS HIGH PRSS DOMINATES THE
WEATHER FOR MID WEEK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER IN THE
WEEK AND MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.
PCPN COULD ALSO LINGER LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTED. SO WILL HAVE CHC PCPN FOR FRI THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SAT NIGHT.

TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AIR IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY/

AUTEN

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 600 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011...FOR THE 00Z TAFS

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE APPROACHING WESTERN IL AT ABOUT 65
MPH. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HIGH WINDS TO 50 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PATH OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE PIA AIRPORT...AS PIA IS ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS WILL WEAKEN THE FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
COLD AIR THEY GO. WILL KEEP LIFR VIS AND SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
IN THE TAFS BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. HAVE INCLUDED THOSE HAZARDS IN BMI AS
WELL. WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDER AND HEAVY RAIN AT SPI/CMI/DEC FOR
NOW...UNTIL THE PATH OF THE STRONGER STORMS BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

SOME LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE IS
RAIN MONDAY MORNING...SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIP
BETWEEN 15Z-19Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST TONIGHT THEN BECOME NORTH BY MON MORNING.

SHIMON
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
323 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

ILZ027>031-281200-
KNOX-MARSHALL-PEORIA-STARK-WOODFORD-
323 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH SOME REMAINING OR CLIMBING
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-281200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-FULTON-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-
MACON-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-
SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
323 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...BEGINNING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH
WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...SMALL HAIL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE EARLY THIS WEEK DUE
TO THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH SOME REMAINING OR CLIMBING
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 7 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
715 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             RUSHVILLE               40.12N 90.57W
02/27/2011  M1.00 INCH       SCHUYLER           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KHUETTL

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