Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Lincoln, IL

135 
WWUS53 KILX 231421
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
921 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

ILC095-123-143-175-231445-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-110823T1445Z/
MARSHALL IL-PEORIA IL-STARK IL-KNOX IL-
921 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
KNOX...STARK...NORTHERN PEORIA AND WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL
945 AM CDT...

AT 916 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PRINCEVILLE...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF PEORIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN PEORIA COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4124 8979 4124 8972 4094 8941 4081 8998
      4113 9010 4116 8997 4116 8988 4121 8987
      4124 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1422Z 316DEG 30KT 4089 8972
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

HJS

106 
WWUS53 KILX 231434
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
934 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

ILC095-123-143-175-231444-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-110823T1445Z/
MARSHALL IL-PEORIA IL-STARK IL-KNOX IL-
934 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KNOX...STARK...
NORTHERN PEORIA AND WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4124 8979 4124 8972 4094 8941 4081 8998
      4113 9010 4116 8997 4116 8988 4121 8987
      4124 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1434Z 316DEG 30KT 4080 8965

$$

HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
656 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 237 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...BUT STILL SEEING
SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF IT AS FAR WEST AS ILLINOIS. HAVE SEEN
TEMPERATURES DIP AS LOW AS THE MID 50S ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER
EARLY THIS MORNING. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING MCS
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER LESS-INTENSE MCS WAS UPSTREAM ALONG THE MINNESOTA/NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER...NEAR A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS QUITE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN INVOLVES THE MCS EVOLUTION...AND ITS
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL TODAY. THIS INCLUDES SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY IS ALSO A CONCERN...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING COLD FRONT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

MCS HAS TAKEN A DEFINITE SOUTHEAST TURN RECENTLY...AND CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THIS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE. LATEST HRRR...AS
WELL AS AWIPS TIME-OF-ARRIVAL TOOL...SUGGESTS STORM ARRIVAL IN
THE GALESBURG AREA TOWARD 8 AM. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL JET IN THIS
AREA IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IT IS FURTHER BACK IN IOWA...SO
SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE MCS ARRIVES. HRRR SUGGESTS THE
REMNANT RAINFALL MAY REACH AS FAR AS CHAMPAIGN BY LATE MORNING...
BUT INSTABILITY THAT FAR EAST IS MUCH LESSER AND CONFIDENCE IN
THAT SCENARIO IS LOW. RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO EVENING...AS THE REMNANT OUTFLOWS
FROM THE TWO MCS SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH THE RECOVERING AIR
MASS...AND THE UPPER WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND
ILLINOIS. SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT PLACES THE
SLIGHT RISK FROM ABOUT I-72 NORTH.

ARRIVAL OF THE ACTUAL FRONT LAGS BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE
CONSIDERABLY...WITH 00Z MODELS FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH A WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING PASSAGE. PLENTY OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
TAKE PLACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 90S...FIRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AGAIN...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY
BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH THE ENTIRE CWA EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. BEHIND IT...THE NEXT
WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LATEST GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BREAKING DOWN THE HIGH AND PRODUCING SHOWERS/STORMS
ON SATURDAY...ALBEIT NORTH OF OUR AREA. ECMWF FEATURES A
DISSIPATING SURFACE FRONT...WITH NO RAINFALL. WITH A RATHER
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR AREA...THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS
MORE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE IRENE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
BOTTLENECK THIS WEEKEND...IN ANY FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THIS APPEARS TO HELP CARVE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BY MONDAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT
FORECAST RANGE.

GEELHART
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 656 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

WHILE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN POINT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF VALID
TIME...THE BULK OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. A STORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING WILL PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS THAT
MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS
KPIA/KBMI/KCMI...BUT EVEN THERE THE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO GO ABOVE A VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH DIURNAL MIXING LATER TODAY...WITH THE GUSTS FALLING
OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING IS LOST.

BAK
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
618 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>046-241100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-
PIATT-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
618 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ARE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

ILZ047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-241100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-
SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
618 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BAK