Areal Flood Warning 19, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MCS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW SIGNS OF EVOLVING INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE AS IT ACCELERATES
EASTWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE LOOPS...IT APPEARS
BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH
OF THE KILX CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE DECIDED TO
ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY TO EXPIRE
AT 12Z. WILL HOWEVER CARRY LIKELY POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70...AS NORTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS
AREA. FURTHER NORTH...WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA. ONCE THE EARLY MORNING MCS PUSHES FURTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. HAVE THEREFORE ONLY MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS CONCERNING POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
TONIGHT. AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES...WEAK RIDGING
WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT
THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS FURTHER NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DESPITE
PRESENCE OF FRONT...STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED
FURTHER WEST IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...AS WEAKER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARY.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...SO HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BEST FORCING. THINK THIS CHANCE WILL BE
FOCUSED PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING...WITH HOT/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
EVERYWHERE BY AFTERNOON.

AS ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...IT WILL GRADUALLY
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS
FRONT WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN ADVANCES
IT FURTHER EASTWARD ON TUESDAY. VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE
OF THE BOUNDARY CHARACTERIZED BY LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -8 TO -10C
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER PRIMARY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BE
LOCATED FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...BUT AM
RELUCTANT TO GO TOTALLY DRY UNTIL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
THEREFORE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE E/SE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...ENSURING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

BARNES
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1202 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

MCS CURRENTLY GETTING ORGANIZED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MO LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND STAY PRETTY MUCH SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES. OTHER ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MO MAY SKIRT THE
SPI-DEC-CMI TERMINALS...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS OVER IL IS MORE HOSTILE
TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS A ROUGH
ARRIVAL TIME AT SPI OF 0645Z ASSUMING THE STORM NOW CROSSING THE MS
RIVER SOUTHWEST OF PPQ SURVIVES. WILL USE THIS TIMING AND GIVE SPI
AND DEC A TEMPO FOR THUNDER 06Z-09Z...AND CMI A VCTS FOR 10-14Z.
RADAR SIMULATIONS FROM THE HRRR AND WRK-NMM MODELS BOTH KEEP
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF PIA/BMI. THERE WILL ALSO EXIST A RELATIVE
LULL IN PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
TONIGHTS MCS. THEREFORE WILL INDICATE A DRY TAF AFTER 14Z SUN AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z MON. WILL INCLUDE SOME 5SM BR AROUND SUNRISE
WITH WEAK WINDS RICH SURFACE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS MAY MITIGATE THIS SOMEWHAT.

04
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ049>052-061-
066-067-071>073.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
109 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

ILZ049-050-190715-
MORGAN-SCOTT-
109 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MORGAN AND SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL
215 AM CDT...

AT 106 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHAPIN...
  MURRAYVILLE...
  WOODSON...
  JACKSONVILLE...
  FRANKLIN...
  ALEXANDER...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...RIGGSTON...MERRITT...LYNNVILLE...
SOUTH JACKSONVILLE...LAKE JACKSONVILLE AND JACKSONVILLE MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3988 9021 3988 9000 3979 9000 3978 8998
      3976 8998 3971 8998 3966 8996 3960 8995
      3953 9048 3973 9057
TIME...MOT...LOC 0609Z 252DEG 24KT 3965 9043

AUTEN