Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Wilmington, OH

Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Auglaize County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Miami County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Preble County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Union County, OH, Warren County, OH

093 
WWUS41 KILN 101458
WSWILN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
958 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-
101600-
/O.CAN.KILN.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-110210T1600Z/
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...KENTON...CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...
BELLEFONTAINE...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...
SPRINGFIELD...LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...
XENIA...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...
HAMILTON...LEBANON...WILMINGTON
958 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN A LITTLE FROM THEIR MORNING LOWS...ALLOWING
WIND CHILL READINGS TO RECOVER ALSO. WINDS HOWEVER ARE
LIGHT...MINIMIZING THEIR CHILLING AFFECT. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE AN
ISOLATED READING BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 10 BELOW
ZERO...THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS NO LONGER EXPERIENCING WIND CHILLS
THAT COLD. THEREFORE THE ADVISORY HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

$$


SITES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1239 AM EST THU FEB 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A STRONG W-E PUSH OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. EARLIER 8 PM REPORTS FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CWA SHOW
THAT SNOW HAS BARELY MEASURED AN EIGHTH OF AN INCH EVEN THOUGH
CONSISTENT HEAVIER RETURNS ARE PRESENT. SNOW WAS A VERY FINE
CONSISTENCY IN THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE A STRONG DROP BEFORE
DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. ACTUALLY RAISED MIN TEMPS FOR
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THIS LOCATION...WHILE DROPPING THEM A DEGREE OR
TWO IN THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF TIME TONIGHT. THOUGHT THAT TRULY CLEAR SKIES IN THE
SOUTHEAST WOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL LATE AND THE RADIATION WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO DROP AS LOW AS WE HAD IT ADVERTISED.

THIS BROUGHT A TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT OVER THE CWA...PARTICULARLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR. EXPECT TO OPEN UP A RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS THESE TRUE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER A
FRESH SNOWPACK NIGHTS REALLY SEE A TREMENDOUS VARIATION FROM LOW
LYING AND ISOLATED AREAS VERSUS MORE URBAN AND/OR FORESTED REGIONS.

WILL NOT UNDO THE WIND CHILL MENTION IN THE HWO THOUGH I THINK
THAT ASOS 10 METER /30 FOOT/ WINDS WILL NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
CALM SURFACE WINDS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE PRESENT. SPS HANDLED THIS
COMBINATION WELL. BTW...ITS GONNA BE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACRS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AS
ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NW
TO THE MID 20S FAR SOUTH/SE.

AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING S/WV AND RETURN WAA FLOW WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AT THIS POINT AS
TO HOW MUCH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD
FORMATION. THUS...HAVE EITHER GONE PARTLY CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLEAR
ATTM.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND DEPARTING
HIGH ALONG WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING S/WV WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACRS THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BUT BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH VARIOUS FEATURES THAT CREATE SOME
UNCERTAINTY GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

WILL START THINGS OFF SATURDAY WITH LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING
EAST...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL AFTER THIS. SEVERAL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL CUT
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK...AND AT THIS POINT THE SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. THE GFS
DEEPENS THESE FEATURES...DRIVING THEM FURTHER SOUTH (ACROSS
MICHIGAN) AND PRODUCING MORE PRECIPITATION. THIS ALSO ACTS TO
SUPPRESS WARM ADVECTION AND KEEP TEMPS QUITE COOL. WAS NOT AS HAPPY
WITH THIS SOLUTION...THINKING THAT THESE DISTURBANCES WERE BEING
DRIVEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND NOT ALLOWING SURFACE CONDITIONS TO
RESPOND PROPERLY TO THE WARM ADVECTION.

THE ECMWF LINES UP MORE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND ALSO
WITH HPC...SO USED ITS DEPICTION AS A BASIS FOR THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS KEEPS TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK...AND KEEPS
PRECIP MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS DID NOT FORCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH DEEP MEAN TROF ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH CLOUDS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW MOVG THRU THE THE DEEP SOUTH TO EXIT THE REGION YIELDING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. IN NW FLOW PATTERN...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN OVERNIGHT AND BUILDS ACRS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KTS DURG THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
429 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
080-102200-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-
429 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO IN
SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 5
AND 10 MPH WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS COINCIDING WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE. WHILE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL BE AWARE OF THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND DRESS
APPROPRIATELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL DRESS APPROPRIATELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-082-088-102200-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
429 PM EST WED FEB 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.