Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
644 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR THIS
EVENING. DUE TO GREATER INSTABILITY THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE FA AND LESS ACROSS SE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
HOWEVER DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
EXISTS AS WELL. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AS WELL. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATER IN
THE EVENING ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ACROSS THE FA WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO BE GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MILES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH WIND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 TO 35 MILES PER HOUR. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF GOING HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT
TERM TIME PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND THEREFORE
USED A BLEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION
AND MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SE PORTION OF THE FA.
THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME HIGH
WATER CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO
FOR THE SE HALF OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW
DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WITH
A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL. BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE. SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT. 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL NOT GET VERY FAR
SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
FAST MOISTURE AND THUS CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE REINTRODUCED CHANCE POPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST IS CONTINUING TO FILL IN EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THERE IS NOW A FAIRLY SOLID LINE EXTENDING FROM
AROUND EVANSVILLE TO CLEVELAND. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITIES AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUS...EXPECT LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TAF
SITES...PRIMARILY AFFECTING THEM DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS. AS WE LOSE THE BETTER INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
THUNDER CHANCES TO DIMINISH BUT WE COULD SEE SOME PCPN LINGER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE NEXT
WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT ON TUESDAY BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
REDEVELOP FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
421 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-070-152130-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-
421 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>093-OHZ063>065-071>074-077>080-082-152130-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
421 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEARS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS. THIS RAINFALL
COULD CREATE HIGH WATER ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

KYZ094>100-OHZ081-088-152130-
OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
421 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES APPEARS
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS. THIS RAINFALL
COULD CREATE HIGH WATER ISSUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
739 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             LEWISTOWN               40.42N 83.88W
11/14/2011  E0.50 INCH       LOGAN              OH   PUBLIC

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     FLOOD            JACKSON CENTER          40.44N 84.04W
11/14/2011                   SHELBY             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREET FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF COLLEGE ST AND
            BUCHANAN ST...AND ALSO AT INTERSECTION OF SR 274 AND
            ELDER ST.

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
813 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

KYZ091>093-OHZ054-062>064-071-072-077>080-150200-
KENTON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-BROWN OH-CLINTON OH-FAYETTE OH-
GREENE OH-HAMILTON OH-MADISON OH-PICKAWAY OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-
HIGHLAND OH-
813 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
HIGHLAND...CLERMONT...SOUTHERN WARREN...PICKAWAY...SOUTHERN
MADISON...EASTERN HAMILTON...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...FAYETTE...
CLINTON...NORTHWESTERN BROWN...CAMPBELL...BOONE AND KENTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 900 PM EST...

AT 810 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH SOLON TO BELLEVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...READING...BLUE ASH...
BURLINGTON...MONTGOMERY...CINCINNATI...OAKBROOK...DEER PARK...
NORWOOD...LOVELAND...VILLA HILLS...LUDLOW AND MORROW.

ALSO...ELMWOOD PLACE...SHADY GROVE...LANDEN...ST. BERNARD...
PAINTERSVILLE...AMBERLEY...DILLONVALE AND LUMBERTON ARE NEAR THE PATH
OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3978 8366 3977 8283 3951 8321 3952 8326
      3943 8333 3897 8402 3898 8484