Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
355 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO BUILD IN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT ARE AFFECTING
MIDDLE OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A FEW
SVR AND SEVERAL SPS SO FAR. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN EARLY
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN
WITH HIGH PRESSURE. CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 50S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH SINKS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. READINGS WILL DROP AS LOW AS
50 MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DISCUSSION TODAY CUT A LITTLE BIT SHORT BY ONGOING STORMS.

THIS PERIOD OF FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE SCALE
PATTERN FEATURING A WESTERN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION...WITH
OVERALL LITTLE THREAT OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION.

BEGINNING OF PERIOD FINDS THE LARGE RIDGE STILL ANCHORED OVER NEW
MX/AZ WITH A SLOWLY DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ATOP THE RIDGE IN NRN
MN. THIS TROUGH ACTS TO TEMPORARILY PUSH ERN CONUS TROUGH AXIS OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC...SO HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING QUICKLY ON TUESDAY
WHICH SHOULD SPELL A GOOD WARMUP IN THE AFTN ON TUESDAY BACK INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RESIDUAL DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER FOR EFFICIENT HEATING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

STILL SEE A SIGNAL FOR AN MCS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND REMNANTS OF THIS
COULD PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO PETER OUT QUICKLY ON WED MORNING...AND
ANY REIGNITION OF STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH/WEST OF AREA ALONG THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MUCH MORE COHESIVE
MODEL SIGNAL NOW EXISTS THAT THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SO CONTINUED THE
STORM CHANCE IN THESE PERIODS. VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ECMWF/GFS BLENDS INDICATING 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS /C/. IN
FACT...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TECHNIQUES AND MIXING 850MB TEMPS TO THE
SFC ON WED/THURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INDICATE SOME LOW 90S
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL STAY SHY OF THOSE VERY WARM VALUES IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN COMPLICATIONS OF CLOUDS/POSSIBLE STORMS.

WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO COME NORTH INTO THE SERN CONUS. RIDGING AND
DEVELOPING ERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF IRENE WILL TEND SQUASH
WHAT REMAINS OF THE WEAK FRONT...SO HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT HOW COOL/LESS
HUMID IT MAY BECOME. SOME DETERMINISTIC DATASETS NOW KEEPING RATHER
WARM TEMPS ESPECIALLY SRN CWA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. WON/T GO QUITE THAT WARM...BUT WILL GO
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NW OHIO AND NORTHERN INDIANA BY
MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND THEN WILL DISSIPATE. OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR. EXPECT MVFR CIG/VSBY
AND SOME IFR VSBY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE TEMPO TSTM GROUP IN
TAFS FOR FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS AND THEN USED CB AS EXPECT COVERAGE TO
DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT AND/OR LOSS OF HEATING.

AFT 01Z-03Z VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT MVFR VSBYS 09Z-13Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES MON.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...PARKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1255 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-221700-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1255 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

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