Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
747 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY ALONG A DEW POINT
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...RESULTING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...USHERING IN A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A DEW POINT BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. WITH STORMS ENTERING SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS THERE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
REST OF AREA HAS LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS SINCE IT APPEARS
STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...A SHORT WAVE ADVANCING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND WILL ALLOW CAPE TO REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE
RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS DUE RATHER VIGOROUS WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 70 BY 6 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT A LULL IN CONVECTION TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S...BEFORE FALLING
TO THE 60S FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SIMILAR WITH FORECAST CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE GFS. THE REGION COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW PATTERN STARTING AT MIDWEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A MODERATION IN THE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE A DEEP TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE HUDSON BAY WILL PRODUCE
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST 3 WEEKS OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS OVER THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF
THE FORECAST. CANNOT RULE OUT CONDITIONS BELOW MVFR WITH THESE
STORMS BUT IF THAT OCCURS IT SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF. THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE
NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ALTHOUGH ITS FORMATION IS UNCERTAIN. APPEARS THAT IF THIS OCCURS
THAT IT WILL BE CLOSE TO 12Z. IN ADDITION THERE SHOULD BE SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN MIST. IF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP THEN THEY
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER DURING THE MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO LAST LONGEST AT THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...PARKER
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
457 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-090900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
457 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
808 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N LEBANON               39.43N 84.21W
08/08/2011                   WARREN             OH   PUBLIC

            ONE LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
812 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

KYZ092-093-OHZ070-071-077-090045-
KENTON KY-CAMPBELL KY-BUTLER OH-HAMILTON OH-WARREN OH-
812 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...
HAMILTON...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...CAMPBELL AND NORTHERN KENTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

AT 807 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONFORT
HEIGHTS EAST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...FINNEYTOWN...NORWOOD...
WYOMING...MARIEMONT...FOREST PARK...FAIRFIELD...READING...DEER
PARK...MADEIRA...SPRINGDALE...BLUE ASH AND SHARONVILLE.

ALSO...MOUNT HEALTHY HEIGHTS...PLEASANT RUN...TURPIN HILLS...GOLF
MANOR...FAIRFAX...GREENHILLS...PLEASANT RUN FARM AND ARLINGTON
HEIGHTS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3941 8451 3930 8422 3927 8424 3927 8426
      3922 8432 3921 8431 3921 8428 3899 8443
      3913 8471

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
828 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORT THOMAS             39.08N 84.45W
08/08/2011  E50 MPH          CAMPBELL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MANY SMALL BRANCHES BROKEN. ALSO DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

KURZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
829 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E MIDDLETOWN            39.51N 84.37W
08/08/2011                   BUTLER             OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE LIMBS DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
830 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             5 E FORT THOMAS         39.08N 84.35W
08/08/2011  E0.88 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
845 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

OHZ062-071-072-090115-
CLINTON OH-GREENE OH-WARREN OH-
845 PM EDT MON AUG 8 2011

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN WARREN...
SOUTHERN GREENE AND NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 841 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTH LEBANON TO BUTLERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WAYNESVILLE AND
WILMINGTON.

ALSO...MIDDLEBORO...GENNTOWN...OREGONIA...CLARKSVILLE...OGDEN...
CAESAR CREEK STATE PARK...CORWIN AND HARVEYSBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3965 8402 3947 8370 3926 8406 3926 8408
      3935 8426