Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
315 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT IS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WITH LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT CROSSING NORTHWEST COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL JET AND
INSTABILITY ARE STRONG ENOUGH SO THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720 IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 AM. THIS WATCH INCLUDES DAYTON AND COLUMBUS. MAIN THREAT
IS DAMAGING WINDS WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

ONCE LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN AREA OF PERSISTENT FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE GRADUALLY ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE WEST ALONG A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY IN A NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE
TO 90 ON FRIDAY UNDER A SMALL AMOUNT OF WARM ADVECTION AND AIRMASS
MODIFICATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MODELS
CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND A BIT. THE LATEST RUN BRINGS THE
STRONGEST FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD FAVOR A WETTER SOLUTION...WITH THE
PEAK HEATING AIDING STRONGER CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SATURDAY TO A 50/50 CHANCE ACROSS MOST ZONES WHERE THE PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WELL
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THAT AREA.

SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
FOR MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION. ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES
ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ROUNDING THIS RIDGE TO DROP SE INTO OHIO EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE
TAF SITES BEGINNING AT KDAY BY 08Z AND OVERSPREADING REMAINDER OF
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 10Z. WILL ALLOW FOR A TEMPO GROUP
AT ALL BUT KCVG/KLUK WHERE WL LIMIT MENTION TO VCSH AND CB.
AFTER THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES THRU THERE WL BE A CONTD
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
THRU THIS AFTN. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND DEVELOPMENT WL
LIMIT THIS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN MENTION TO ONLY CB. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...LATTO
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-032015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
413 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE AREA...THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIST. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>073-077>082-088-032015-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
PIKE-SCIOTO-
413 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

INZ050-058-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-030730-
FAYETTE IN-WAYNE IN-AUGLAIZE OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-DARKE OH-
GREENE OH-HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
PREBLE OH-SHELBY OH-
136 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SHELBY...NORTHERN
PREBLE...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY...MIAMI...MERCER...LOGAN...HARDIN...
NORTHWESTERN GREENE...DARKE...WESTERN CLARK...WESTERN CHAMPAIGN...
AUGLAIZE...WAYNE AND EXTREME NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM
EDT...

AT 130 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA PUSHING EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION BETWEEN 230 AM AND 330 AM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ROCKFORD...RICHMOND...
HAGERSTOWN...FOUNTAIN CITY...DUBLIN...CENTERVILLE...CAMBRIDGE CITY...
YELLOW SPRINGS...WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB...WEST MILTON...WEST MANSFIELD
AND WEST LIBERTY.

ALSO...CHATTANOOGA...TAMA...MENDON...WABASH...NEPTUNE...KOSSUTH...
LAKE LORAMIE STATE PARK AND PLATTSVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4082 8349 4071 8349 4068 8341 4062 8341
      4050 8348 4050 8352 4042 8353 3976 8390
      3976 8522 4000 8521 4001 8482 4073 8481
      4073 8446 4069 8445 4065 8389 4082 8388

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
235 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-052-060-061-030730-
UNION IN-FAYETTE IN-WAYNE IN-AUGLAIZE OH-CHAMPAIGN OH-DARKE OH-
HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-MERCER OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-
SHELBY OH-
235 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SHELBY...NORTHERN
PREBLE...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...MIAMI...MERCER...WESTERN LOGAN...
HARDIN...DARKE...NORTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN...AUGLAIZE...WAYNE...FAYETTE
AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM EDT...

AT 236 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 52 MILES NORTH OF ADA TO WABASH TO 52 MILES WEST OF
BENTONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...ROCKFORD...COLDWATER...
CELINA...FORT RECOVERY...ST. HENRY...ST. MARYS...NEW BREMEN...UNION
CITY...NEW KNOXVILLE...MINSTER...CRIDERSVILLE AND ANSONIA.

ALSO...WABASH...TAMA...MENDON...NEPTUNE...MONTEZUMA...CARTHAGENA...
NORTH DAYTON AND KOSSUTH ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4082 8349 4076 8349 4004 8407 3954 8531
      3979 8531 3980 8523 4000 8521 4001 8482
      4073 8478 4073 8446 4069 8445 4065 8389
      4082 8388

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

OHZ026-044>046-051>056-061>063-030845-
CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-DELAWARE OH-FAYETTE OH-FRANKLIN OH-GREENE OH-
HARDIN OH-LICKING OH-LOGAN OH-MADISON OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
UNION OH-
348 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT UNION...NORTHERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI...MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...
NORTHWESTERN LICKING...SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN...GREENE...NORTHERN
FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...DELAWARE...CLARK AND CHAMPAIGN
COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM EDT...

AT 346 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTH OF ESSEX TO MIDDLEBURG TO TROTWOOD...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...NORTH LEWISBURG...
URBANA...NEW CARLISLE...NORTHRIDGE...HUBER HEIGHTS...DAYTON...
RICHWOOD...OAKWOOD...MARYSVILLE...WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB...ENON AND
FAIRBORN.

ALSO...PHONETON...TERRE HAUTE...DREXEL...RAYMOND...SOMERSVILLE...FORT
MCKINLEY...BRANDT AND NORTH HAMPTON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4061 8342 4051 8341 4051 8325 4045 8324
      4044 8302 4042 8301 4042 8293 4036 8292
      4035 8275 4028 8274 4028 8265 4008 8282
      3958 8361 3978 8448 3980 8448 4027 8369