Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
FA AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. MIX LAYER CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WILL HELP AID STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
SHEAR HOWEVER WILL REMAIN WEAK THIS EVENING. WITH STORM MOVEMENT
RELATIVELY SLOW AND HIGH PW WATER VALUES FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE
THIS EVENING. THE FLOODING THREAT WILL BE INCREASED ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED
YESTERDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN
THE HWO. SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE
AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND THEREFORE CONTINUED MENTION IN THE HWO. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LOW NORTH NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE
LOW...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
LIFTING UP ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER THAT...WEAKER
SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW/TROUGH THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS EVEN TRYING TO HANG ON TO SOME PCPN ON
INTO SATURDAY BUT THE 12Z GEM AND 00Z ECMWF ARE DRYING US OUT AND
WILL TREND THE FORECAST THAT WAY FOR NOW.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN TRY TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TOWARD THE END
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME WEAK SYSTEMS DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS OUR AREA. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST
OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. MVFR VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 23 KNOT TO 25 KNOT
RANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ077>079-
     081-088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
506 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
080-082-222115-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
506 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-222115-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
506 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
707 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE WESTERVILLE       40.17N 82.90W
06/21/2011  M60 MPH          DELAWARE           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MIKEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
714 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S PIKETON             38.98N 83.00W
06/21/2011                   PIKE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON WAKEFIELD-MOUND RD.

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
716 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHILLICOTHE             39.34N 82.99W
06/21/2011                   ROSS               OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

ANOVAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOGAN                   39.54N 82.40W
06/21/2011                   HOCKING            OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN LOGAN AND NORTH AND SOUTH OF LOGAN.

&&

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HILLIARD                40.04N 83.14W
06/21/2011                   FRANKLIN           OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON TOP OF CAR IN HILLIARD.

&&

JDR

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