Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT...KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOG IS DISSIPATING SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA...THE FOCUS
HAS SHIFTED TO HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...ENHANCED BY A
SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE WEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING CINCINNATI AND DAYTON.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EXISTS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS DELTA THETA E INCREASES TO OVER 20 C.
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LARGE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF CONVECTIVE CELLS...THOUGH THE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF 11200 FT
IS ABOVE THE MOST FAVORABLE RANGE.

FOR TONIGHT...WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE SRN
GREAT LAKES SHORELINE BY SUNRISE...ALLOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DECREASE FROM SW TO NE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS AND PCPN. HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH...KNOWING
THAT COOLER VALUES MAY RESULT IF A CATEGORICAL EVENT OCCURS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A MID LVL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA BY AFTN. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH MORE SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN THAT
THE AREA WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...CAN NOT RULE
OUT A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE RIPPLING WITHIN THE FLOW THAT MAY
KICK OFF A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY DURING THE AFTN. HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S.

A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL UPR LVL TROF WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
ACRS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW EMBEDDED
UPR LVL DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND AFOREMENTIONED
TROF. THESE FEATURES WILL ACT AS FOCUSING AGENTS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE TIMING AND COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME...SO HAVE PRETTY MUCH PLACED HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME. AGAIN...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE
INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN...AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. MORE WRAP AROUND UPR LVL WX DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
AROUND THE UPR LVL LOW WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STILL
TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN ON INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES SLOWLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT
ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE END UP WITH...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL OHIO TAF SITES. INCOMING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL MOVE OVER THE SITES
DURING THE MORNING AS WELL.

A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST...AND WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMED OUT
VCSH/CB FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE CINCINNATI TAF SITES WILL SEE THIS POSSIBILITY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEW SET OF TAFS...WHILE THE OTHER SITES WILL SEE
A CHANCE OF STORMS LATER ON. SPECIFIC TIMING FOR THUNDER HAS NOT
BEEN INTRODUCED AS OF YET...OWING MAINLY TO QUESTIONS OF COVERAGE.
HOWEVER...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN CLEAR OUT A BIT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...AND MORE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SEEM LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ034-035-042-043-
     051>053-060>062-070>072-077>081.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ091>093-096>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN/JGL
AVIATION...HATZOS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
900 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-KYZ091>093-096>100-OHZ034-035-042-043-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077>081-211300-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-MERCER-
AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-
900 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST
OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT INTERACTS WITH
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE VERY MOIST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING. THUS...SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ARISE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094-095-OHZ026-044>046-054>056-063>065-073-074-082-
088-211300-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-OWEN-GRANT-HARDIN-LOGAN-UNION OH-
DELAWARE-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
ROSS-HOCKING-PIKE-SCIOTO-
900 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT INTERACTS WITH UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY MOIST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SLOW-MOVING. THUS...SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY
ARISE...ESPECIALLY WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1031 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 AM     HAIL             OSGOOD                  39.13N 85.29W
06/20/2011  M1.00 INCH       RIPLEY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1036 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ099-100-OHZ079-081-201500-
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-
1036 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...
SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS...NORTHERN MASON AND NORTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 1100 AM EDT...

AT 1035 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WASHINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WASHINGTON...
MAYSVILLE...ABERDEEN AND MANCHESTER.

ALSO...MORANBURG...SOMO...ORANGEBURG...BRADYSVILLE...RECTORVILLE AND
TRINITY ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3873 8357 3854 8363 3861 8394 3868 8395

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1053 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ093-095>097-OHZ071-072-078>080-201515-
PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-GRANT KY-BROWN OH-CLINTON OH-
WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-HIGHLAND OH-
1053 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
HIGHLAND...CLERMONT...SOUTHEASTERN WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON...
BROWN...SOUTHERN GRANT...CAMPBELL...BRACKEN AND PENDLETON COUNTIES
THROUGH 1115 AM EDT...

AT 1048 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM EDENTON TO IVOR TO HOLBROOK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WILLIAMSTOWN...
WILLIAMSBURG...BETHEL...FAYETTEVILLE...ST. MARTIN...FELICITY...MOUNT
ORAB...LYNCHBURG...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE...AUGUSTA AND SARDINIA.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3849 8463 3852 8464 3853 8467 3856 8467
      3859 8473 3887 8432 3930 8405 3921 8356
      3887 8379 3855 8420 3855 8422 3858 8421
      3856 8441 3853 8443 3853 8447 3851 8449
      3847 8458

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1127 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1126 AM     HAIL             DOVER                   38.76N 83.88W
06/20/2011  E0.50 INCH       MASON              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1136 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

KYZ091>093-OHZ077-078-201600-
KENTON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-HAMILTON OH-CLERMONT OH-
1136 AM EDT MON JUN 20 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN CLERMONT...HAMILTON...
CAMPBELL...BOONE AND KENTON COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

AT 1136 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CINCINNATI...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BURLINGTON...CHEVIOT...
VILLA HILLS...ELSMERE...NORTH COLLEGE HILL...MOUNT HEALTHY...CRESCENT
SPRINGS...ERLANGER...CRESTVIEW HILLS...LAKESIDE PARK...LUDLOW AND
FORT MITCHELL.

LAT...LON 3926 8413 3887 8424 3904 8481 3925 8475