Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
126 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS WHERE ISOLATED STORMS STILL
PERSIST. THERE IS ALSO SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING IN THE FORT WAYNE
/ TOLEDO AREA...AND SOME OF THIS MAY SINK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...HAVE TO THINK
THAT SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT (REFERENCING THE CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OBS OVER INDIANA RIGHT NOW) BY AROUND 06Z OR SO.

RECENT MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION OVER ILLINOIS RIGHT
NOW MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...WEAK
INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.
THE BIGGER IMPACT WOULD BE ON HOW THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY PLAYS OUT. BROUGHT POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO FOR THE WHOLE CWA...BEFORE INCREASING THEM AGAIN FROM THE
WEST BY MORNING.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DEVELOPED A GOOD FEEL FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS...SO IT WAS USED AS PRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR ADJUSTING
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
HAVE BEEN GOING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SVRL DAYS NOW. CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE NW CWFA AS MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE...AND WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN...HAVE STUCK WITH 60 POPS ALL
LOCATIONS. SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW UNSTABLE
THE AIRMASS BECOMES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE SE CWFA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO
THE UPPER 80S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO
THE LOWER 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME SPENT ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER.

REASONABLY SOLID CONFIDENCE FOR WEAKER FLOW REGIME - THAT SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND REFRESHINGLY COOL AS LARGE
SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. THE DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF OF THE NERN
CONUS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING SFC HIGH WHICH ACTUALLY
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE VIGOROUS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH TRAVERSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS.
WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW STORM CHANCES ACTUALLY COME IN LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WE KEEP THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THIS WAVE CLEARS. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WARM FRONT ACRS NRN IN AND OH WILL MOVE N AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W AND MOVES ACRS TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. MOIST UNSTABLE ATM WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE AREA UNTIL COLD
FRONT PUSHES THRU. SLOW-EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS IN AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
HAVE HANDLED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH AND ONLY MENTIONED CB IN KDAY.
WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF KCVG NEEDS TO BE UPDATED IN A FEW HRS.
THESE SHWRS MAY CAUSE BRF MVFR DUE TO VSBY. TOWARDS DAY BREAK
LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBY ASSOCIATED WITH BR FROM EARLIER
RAINS.

FOR TODAY TSTMS WILL START LATE THIS MORNING AND BECOME WIDESPREAD
BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GSTY
WINDS, HAIL AND BRF IFR CONDS. TSTMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE EVENING.

SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRBL TONIGHT BECOMING SW AT 5 TO 10KTS
BY MID MORNING AND VEERING TO THE NW THIS EVENING BEHIND THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...HAYDU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-111400-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
951 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1201 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

OHZ026-035-044-110430-
AUGLAIZE OH-HARDIN OH-LOGAN OH-
1201 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LOGAN...WESTERN HARDIN
AND EASTERN AUGLAIZE COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT MIDNIGHT EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAKEVIEW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...BELLE CENTER AND ALGER.

ALSO...HUNTSVILLE...ROUNDHEAD...NORTHWOOD...BIG SPRINGS...SILVER
CREEK...JUMBO...WALTON AND HUNTERSVILLE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4049 8358 4040 8389 4065 8410 4065 8409
      4065 8389 4072 8389 4073 8388 4078 8374

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1207 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ095-096-110430-
PENDLETON KY-GRANT KY-
1207 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GRANT AND PENDLETON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1206 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HOLBROOK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...DRY RIDGE...
WILLIAMSTOWN AND FALMOUTH.

ALSO...LAWRENCEVILLE...KEEFER...STEWARTSVILLE...CHERRY GROVE...GENE
SNYDER AIRPORT...GREENWOOD...CATAWBA AND GOFORTH ARE NEAR THE PATH OF
THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3852 8464 3853 8466 3853 8467 3856 8467
      3858 8471 3865 8476 3878 8431 3857 8425
      3856 8441 3853 8443 3853 8447 3852 8448
      3851 8464

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1234 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

OHZ026-110530-
HARDIN OH-
1234 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HARDIN COUNTY THROUGH 130 AM
EDT...

AT 1230 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALGER...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...KENTON...DUNKIRK AND
FOREST.

ALSO...HUNTERSVILLE...SILVER CREEK...DOLA...MENTZER...BLANCHARD...
MOUNT VICTORY...GRANT AND PFEIFFER ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4082 8349 4071 8349 4071 8344 4068 8341
      4052 8341 4053 8376 4070 8389 4072 8388
      4078 8389 4083 8377 4082 8350

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
320 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>091-110745-
SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-BOONE KY-CARROLL KY-
GALLATIN KY-
320 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GALLATIN...CARROLL...
BOONE...EASTERN RIPLEY...SOUTHERN DEARBORN...OHIO AND SWITZERLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM EDT...

AT 318 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MOUNT SINAI TO PATE TO MOOREFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...AURORA...RISING SUN...
LAWRENCEBURG...GREENDALE...VEVAY...WARSAW...UNION...OAKBROOK AND
BURLINGTON.

LAT...LON 3896 8503 3919 8520 3913 8482 3910 8482
      3912 8478 3911 8469 3910 8467 3890 8466
      3870 8482 3876 8521 3886 8521

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

INZ074-075-080-KYZ090>093-095-OHZ077-110815-
SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-DEARBORN IN-KENTON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-
GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-HAMILTON OH-
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN HAMILTON...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT...GALLATIN...CAMPBELL...BOONE...KENTON...EASTERN
DEARBORN...OHIO AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM EDT...

AT 348 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM GRANDVIEW TO OAKBROOK TO FLORENCE...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WARSAW...FLORENCE...
UNION...ELSMERE...ERLANGER...VILLA HILLS...CRESTVIEW HILLS...CRESCENT
SPRINGS...CHEVIOT...EDGEWOOD...LAKESIDE PARK AND FORT MITCHELL.

LAT...LON 3902 8479 3925 8486 3925 8445 3896 8441
      3869 8467 3871 8479 3872 8479 3871 8480
      3875 8502 3876 8502 3875 8505 3876 8511

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
413 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

KYZ091>093-095>097-OHZ070-071-077-078-110845-
KENTON KY-PENDLETON KY-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-GRANT KY-
BUTLER OH-HAMILTON OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-
413 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2011

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLERMONT...SOUTHERN
WARREN...EASTERN HAMILTON...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...NORTHERN GRANT...
CAMPBELL...EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BRACKEN...SOUTHERN BOONE...NORTHERN
PENDLETON AND KENTON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 AM EDT...

AT 410 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SHARONVILLE TO AMELIA TO CRITTENDEN...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...TERRACE PARK...
AMELIA...NEW RICHMOND...MONTGOMERY...MILFORD...BATAVIA...LOVELAND...
BUTLER AND FALMOUTH.

LAT...LON 3872 8471 3878 8468 3878 8466 3879 8467
      3901 8453 3938 8447 3932 8404 3895 8409
      3865 8428