Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS ANOTHER COMPLEX WEATHER DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
AND STORM TYPE. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE RUC AND HRRR FOR THE NEAR
TERM FORECAST.

SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTN INDICATED A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WEST CNTRL INDIANA. A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDED SE FROM THIS LOW INTO E CNTRL INDIANA...NRN
KENTUCKY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE
LOW SOUTHWEST INTO WRN INDIANA AND SRN ILLINOIS. THESE BOUNDARIES
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE E/NE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN UPR LVL MCV
LOCATED OVER SRN ILLINOIS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE BOUNDARIES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ATTM...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457 IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WRN CWFA UNTIL 9 PM
EDT. REGARDLESS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR STILL POSE
A THREAT FOR SVR ALL LOCATIONS...IT IS JUST THAT THE WRN AREAS
HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING SVR AT THIS TIME. DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WX THREATS. SLOW-
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO POSE A LOCAL FLOODING THREAT AS
WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE E/NE
OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
UNTIL ANOTHER LOW AND UPR LVL DISTURBANCE APCH THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

A STRONGER UPR LVL TROF IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACRS THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE NE INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT FROM NW TO SE ACRS OUR REGION SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING.
HAVE BEEN GOING WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SVRL DAYS NOW. CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACRS THE NW CWFA AS MODELS ARE NOT
INDICATING MUCH IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF. STILL...WITH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE...AND WITH THE
FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTN...HAVE STUCK WITH 60 POPS ALL
LOCATIONS. SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW UNSTABLE
THE AIRMASS BECOMES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE SE CWFA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO
THE UPPER 80S SE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW TO
THE LOWER 60S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF TIME SPENT ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER.

REASONABLY SOLID CONFIDENCE FOR WEAKER FLOW REGIME - THAT SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND REFRESHINGLY COOL AS LARGE
SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. THE DEEPENING/CLOSING OFF OF THE NERN
CONUS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BUILDING SFC HIGH WHICH ACTUALLY
BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MORE VIGOROUS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH TRAVERSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS.
WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW STORM CHANCES ACTUALLY COME IN LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WE KEEP THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST
INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THIS WAVE CLEARS. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTBY HAS
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KCVG AND KLUK.
SOME OF THESE STORMS CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS.
HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH VERY BRIEF IFR WL BE
PSBL.

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTBY DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND UPPER VORT
INDUCED FROM EARLY CONVECTION TO TRACK ACRS INDIANA AND INTO OH
LATE AFTN INTO EVE. THIS INSTBY AND SUPPORT SHUD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER INDIANA AND THEN SPREAD ACRS
OHIO. HAVE MENTIONED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDER WHEN BEST LIFT AND
INSTBY IS EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS WL REMAIN PSBL INTO THE EVENING
BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH WITH CB. SOME
MIST/HAZE WL LKLY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO MVFR AT
ALL BUT KLUK WHERE HAVE A MENTION OF IFR VSBY RESTRICTION. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LKLY ON SAT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...TSTMS POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-111400-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
951 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
225 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW GROVE CITY        39.93N 83.12W
06/10/2011  M2.05 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMOUNT MEASURED SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
227 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             ALEXANDRIA              38.96N 84.38W
06/10/2011  U2.00 INCH       CAMPBELL           KY   PUBLIC

&&

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

KYZ097-099-OHZ079-101945-
MASON KY-BRACKEN KY-BROWN OH-
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...
NORTHEASTERN BRACKEN AND NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

AT 253 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AA HIGHWAY
AT STATE ROUTE 19 NEAR CHATHAM AND WOOLCUTT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...RIPLEY...WASHINGTON...
ABERDEEN AND MAYSVILLE.

ALSO...GERMANTOWN...STONEY POINT...MINERVA...DOVER...SOUTH RIPLEY...
TUCKAHOE AND MORANBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3869 8410 3877 8407 3877 8405 3878 8405
      3874 8372 3859 8379

BINAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
327 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

INZ058-059-066-OHZ060-070-102030-
UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-FAYETTE IN-BUTLER OH-PREBLE OH-
327 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2011

...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
PREBLE...WESTERN BUTLER...SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE...EASTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROOKVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WEST COLLEGE CORNER...
OXFORD AND CAMDEN.

ALSO...CEDAR GROVE...MOUNDS STATE RECREATION AREA...MOUNT CARMEL...
BILLINGSVILLE...SALEM...CHARLOTTESVILLE...SCIPIO AND COTTAGE GROVE
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3965 8463 3933 8458 3935 8509 3956 8513

BINAU

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