Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Wilmington, OH

467 
WWUS51 KILN 260930
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
530 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

KYC041-077-081-187-260940-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-110426T0945Z/
OWEN KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
530 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GRANT...GALLATIN...CARROLL AND
OWEN COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3833 8480 3842 8489 3851 8499 3856 8502
      3861 8505 3871 8509 3879 8485 3878 8482
      3881 8477 3851 8449 3849 8456 3836 8471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0930Z 270DEG 63KT 3866 8453 3851 8445
          3822 8434

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
348 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH WITH WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEE PERIODS OF ENHANCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS A POTENTIAL LINE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT. COOLER AND A BIT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS/ BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA AND KENTUCKY AT THIS HOUR. ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE IS BREAKING UP INTO MORE OF A SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM MIX AS IT APPROACHED OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AM WITH THE APPROACH OF
WHAT REMAINS OF THE LINE...WITH SCATTERED CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE LINE UNDER THE LOW LEVEL JET MAX.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS LINE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. A BREAK IS EXPECT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
STABLE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE BREAK IN ACTIVITY WILL END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN ANOTHER
WAVE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HEADS
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THE DIFFERENCE WITH THIS COMPLEX
COMPARED TO PAST THREE NIGHTS IS THAT ITS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SW/NE WHICH WOULD BRING MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE MAIN EVENT WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING
SUFFICIENT LIFT AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE A STRONG PRE FRONTAL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD REACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF LOW AND
COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW AND CDFNT JUST TO THE WEST OUT OVER
INDIANA. H5 S/W SWINGS SWINGS OUT OF THE MS VALLEY AND UP THE OH
VALLEY ON WED INTO WED NGT. THIS PRODUCES A STRONG SFC LOW WHICH
MOVES NE ACROSS THE REGION AND SWINGS A CDFNT THRU WED EVENING.
FRONT WORKS E BY 06Z...BRINGING AN END TO THE TSTMS

WRAP AROUND COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON THU. KEPT CHC
POPS GOING WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE N. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS
ARE NOW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. KEPT 20 POPS FOR FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THRU SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF
LINGERS THE FRONT AND PCPN ACROSS THE FA ON MONDAY...SO KEPT CHC
POPS THRU THE PERIOD.

WENT A BLEND OF PREVIOUS AND HPC NUMBERS FOR TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS THAT WERE ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO EARLIER THIS
MORNING HAVE PUSHED WELL TO THE NORTH WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ATTM ACROSS THE REGION. WE HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG DEVELOP AND THIS MAY AFFECT MAINLY KLUK OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO UNTIL SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS EXTENDING FROM FAR WESTERN INDIANA DOWN INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EDGE HAS BEEN MAKING VERY
LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN EDGE HAS BEEN
ACCELERATING FASTER TO THE EAST AND MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.
THIS IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET THAT IS FORECAST TO PIVOT UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE TAF SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. MODELS ARE THEN TRYING
TO HINT AT PERHAPS A BIT OF A LULL IN THE PCPN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING SO WILL JUST ALLOW FOR A VCSH/CB THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW WELL MIXED WE BECOME...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FAIRLY STRONG WINDS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCUR THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-270845-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
438 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AS IT DOES...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN AN
INCREASED FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.