Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Wilmington, OH

227 
WWUS51 KILN 120055
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
855 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

OHC023-057-109-113-165-120130-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0281.000000T0000Z-110712T0130Z/
CLARK OH-GREENE OH-MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-WARREN OH-
855 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN WARREN...EASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI...
GREENE AND WESTERN CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 853 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR BEAVERCREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM PRODUCED A MEASURED WIND GUST TO 64 MPH AT WRIGHT 
PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...BELLBROOK...SPRINGBORO...WILBERFORCE...XENIA...CEDARVILLE
AND WAYNESVILLE.

IN ADDITION...OLDTOWN...TREBEIN...GREENE COUNTY AIRPORT...LYTLE...
STATE ROUTE 48 AT STATE ROUTE 73...SPRING VALLEY...PEKIN AND ROXANNA
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 26 AND 50...
I-75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 66...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 8395 3957 8370 3956 8380 3957 8397
      3953 8398 3948 8429 3991 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 329DEG 35KT 3971 8401

$$


BINAU

543 
WWUS51 KILN 120119
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
919 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

OHC109-120127-
/O.CAN.KILN.SV.W.0281.000000T0000Z-110712T0130Z/
MIAMI OH-
919 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772.

LAT...LON 3986 8388 3957 8370 3956 8380 3957 8397
      3953 8399 3948 8429 3978 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 329DEG 35KT 3960 8384

$$

OHC023-057-113-165-120130-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0281.000000T0000Z-110712T0130Z/
CLARK OH-GREENE OH-MONTGOMERY OH-WARREN OH-
919 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...GREENE AND SOUTHERN
CLARK COUNTIES...

AT 913 PM EDT...RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH SOUTHEAST OF XENIA.  
OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE 
DAYTON METRO AREA. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF GREENE...NORTHERN
WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES...
INCLUDING MIDDLETON CORNER...PAINTERSVILLE AND BOWERSVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 57...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3986 8388 3957 8370 3956 8380 3957 8397
      3953 8399 3948 8429 3978 8433
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 329DEG 35KT 3960 8384

$$


BINAU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
751 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS HAVE LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO. BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S. QUESTION REMAINS
AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE IT. THE
WESTERN EDGE OF IT IS MAKING A MUCH SLOWER SOUTHWARD PUSH THAN
THE EASTERN PORTION. FOR NOW...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE HEAT
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS ALONG AND BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. WILL LIKELY
HAVE TO TRIM MORE OF IT AWAY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES FARTHER SOUTH. THE AIRMASS REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY SO TOUGH TO RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS AGAIN
EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. THE FAR SOUTH AREAS LOOK TO TOP OUT WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105
AGAIN...REQUIRING A SECOND DAY OF EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS.
OBVIOUSLY...THIS FORECAST IS CONTINGENT ON A CERTAIN LEVEL OF
REALIZED INSOLATION AND A LACK OF CLOUD DEBRIS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A THETA-E GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO MOVE IN ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THIS
GRADIENT MOVES SOUTH AND PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN SOMEWHAT MORE OF
A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW LOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN
BELOW 70 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS
IN THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...TAKING THE
THREAT OF PCPN WITH IT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY
PASS TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL DOWN MORE TOWARD SEASONAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY ALONG WITH AN
INFILTRATION OF DRIER AIR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW EXACTLY UPR LVL RIDGE
WILL REBUILD ACRS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPR/MID MS RIVER
VLY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INVERTED SFC TROF DEVELOPING WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN SPINE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO HINT AT MCS ACTIVITY IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ERN CWFA WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD
BRING MORE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE
REGION. GIVEN THE MODELS BEING AT ODDS...WILL USE PERSISTENCE AND
KEEP LOW POPS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND ATTM. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND...IT IS HARD TO PUT
MUCH FAITH IN THIS TIMING...SO AGAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN NRN INDIANA ALONG A TROUGH. 12Z HIRES
WRF NMM AND ARF ARE SHOWING THIS CONVECTION WORKING E ESE TOWARDS
DAY AND CMH/LCK THRU 03Z-04Z BEFORE DYING OFF. PUT CBS IN
DAY/CMH/LCK ATTM...WILL THROW IN A TSRA IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.

FNT IS FCST TO DROP S TOWARDS THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN OH/IN INTO NRN KY DURING THE
AFTN ON TUE.

WITH THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE S...BROUGHT MVFR FOG IN BY 06Z
WITH SOME IFR IN LUK.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ070-
     071-078-079-081.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ070-071-078-079-
     081.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ072-080-082-
     088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077.
KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ089>100.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ058-
     059-066-073>075-080.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
813 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

OHZ072-080-082-088-130015-
CLINTON-HIGHLAND-PIKE-SCIOTO-
813 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-073-074-130015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-
813 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070-071-078-079-081-130015-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-
813 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

OHZ077-130015-
HAMILTON-
813 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
809 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             3 SSE PIQUA             40.10N 84.23W
07/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       MIAMI              OH   PUBLIC

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
810 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             PIQUA                   40.15N 84.25W
07/11/2011  U0.88 INCH       MIAMI              OH   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
812 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             VERSAILLES              40.22N 84.48W
07/11/2011  U0.88 INCH       DARKE              OH   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
816 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             COVINGTON               40.12N 84.35W
07/11/2011  U1.75 INCH       MIAMI              OH   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
822 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             4 W PIQUA               40.15N 84.33W
07/11/2011  M1.50 INCH       MIAMI              OH   PUBLIC

            CORRECTED COVINGTON OH REPORT FROM 1.75 TO 1.50.

&&

HATZOS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
826 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

OHZ046-055-056-120100-
DELAWARE OH-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING OH-
826 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...A AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LICKING...NORTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN AND EASTERN DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

AT 823 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHERN LICKING COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...UTICA...GRANVILLE...
HEBRON...BUCKEYE LAKE...NEWARK...HEATH...HARBOR HILLS AND HANOVER.

ALSO...ST. LOUISVILLE...FALLSBURG...BROWNSVILLE AND GRATIOT ARE NEAR
THE PATH OF THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3995 8219 3994 8223 3992 8223 3993 8268
      4014 8312 4043 8302 4042 8293 4036 8292
      4035 8275 4028 8274 4027 8252 4027 8248
      4025 8247 4025 8230 4021 8218

HATZOS