Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
537 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A LARGE EASTERN UNITED
STATES RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND WESTERN UNITED STATES LOW
PRESSURE. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND A CHANCE TO DRY OUT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAVE UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 5 DEG TONIGHT ACROSS
MOST OF CWA WITH THE EXPECTATION OF RAIN COOLED AIR SWEEPING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. TRIED TO RAISE TO 100 POP OVER
WESTERN CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SUPERCELL MOVING INTO FRANKLIN
COUNTY AT ISSUANCE OF AFD HAS HISTORY OF BASEBALL TO GRAPEFRUIT
HAIL AND 70+ WINDS. THE REST OF THE CWA APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ANY STORMS WORKING IN WILL LIKELY REMAIN
STRONG OR STRENGTHEN.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

A VOLATILE SETUP FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WFO ILN FORECAST AREA NOW ALMOST
COMPLETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WARM FRONT AS SHIFTED INTO
NORTHERN OHIO WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH
OVER MISSOURI IS ALLOWING BOTH A BODILY INCREASE IN LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
CONTINUES TO EJECT NORTHEAST THROUGH IL/IN ATOP THE EVOLVING WARM
SECTOR. SPECIAL 18Z RAOB RELEASE FROM WFO ILN SHOWS SBCAPE TO 3300
J/KG...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35KTS...ALREADY SUPPORTING STORM
ORGANIZATION...AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL
PARAMETERS FROM THIS SOUNDING SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES.

REFERENCE THE STRONGLY WORDED PRODUCTS FROM STORM PREDICTION
CENTER /SWODY1 AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND RECENTLY ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH/ A VERY ACTIVE EVENING AND NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THROUGH 03Z SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG REMAINING AND AMPLE SUPERCELLULAR SHEAR ESPECIALLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...LOW LEVEL
CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTS 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 150
M2/S2...SO SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ARE POSSIBLE.SPC
4-KM NMM- WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT INTO WESTERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE LARGER SCALE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING WITH
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...THOUGH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MAY
PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER IS CONTAINED IN THE
SECONDARY WAVES. GIVEN HOW CLEAN THE WARM SECTOR IS /LACK OF
CONVECTION OVER FAR SRN IND AND OHIO/ AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION YET TO OCCUR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS RATHER
HIGH...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 00Z OR 03Z IN THE TRI STATE
AREA...EXTENDING NORTH TO COVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-75...THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY FOR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT. 25.09Z SPC SREF PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS AND SIG
TOR INGREDIENTS ARE FOCUSED ON THIS AREA /WESTERN OHIO AND TRI-
STATE AREA/ THROUGH 03Z...SO A NIGHT TO BE AWARE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE WEATHER.

LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE WITH THE TWO WAVES OF
STORMS EXPECTED...BUT DON/T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN A THREAT AREA RIGHT
NOW TO ISSUE A WATCH. STORMS SHOULD BE FAST MOVING GIVEN MEAN WEAN
FIELDS ON CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SO WOULD BE A TRAINING
SETUP THAT WOULD NEED TO BE ESTABILISHED...AND THIS TOO DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75 ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN WIND
FIELDS WILL STILL BE STRONG...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. EXPECT STORM COVERAGE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH THOUGH GIVEN
FORCING SIGNALS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...COUPLED WITH
SREF PROBABILILITIES. EXPECT A RATHER SOLID DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS A
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGES THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLING EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST...SO WILL GO WITH JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

MODEL AGREEMENT INTO THE EXTENDED IS FAIRLY GOOD...WITH DEPICTIONS
OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. FORCING IS RATHER ILL-DEFINED...SO HAVE
NOT GONE HIGHER THAN 30 OR 40 PERCENT. AFTER THIS...AN IMPRESSIVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH A SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
WITH THIS FEATURE...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 90S
FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT THE
FORECAST TEMPERED JUST BELOW THE RAW ECMWF TEMPERATURE VALUES...BUT
THIS IS A SLIGHT BIT HIGHER THAN MOS/MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE SAME TIME
PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY...AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A BOUNDARY TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AFTER
THIS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS A BIT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE PERIOD
BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THIS WOULD FAVOR A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ALSO SHOULD NOTE THAT THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A WHOLE LOT OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY
AT SUCH A SCALE GIVEN THE GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE AREA. KEPT IT DRY
FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE SOMETHING FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA LATER ON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TAFS ARE CURRENTLY WRM SECTORED WITH A STATIONARY FNT RUNNING
ACROSS NRN OH. TAFS ARE CURRENTLY VFR. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA IN IL/IN LATER THIS AFTN...THEN IT WILL MOVE E
INTO THE FA AFT 21Z.

BROUGHT TEMPO TSRA INTO THE WRN TAFS AROUND 21Z. EXPECT THE LINE
TO WORK THE E TO CMH/LCK TAFS BY 23Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONGER
LINE OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT OVER MO/AR/WRN KY AND WILL WORK EWD. HAVE THIS FEATURE
TIMED INTO CVG/LUK AROUND IN AFT 00Z. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE FA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WENT A PERIOD 4 HOURS OR SO
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THIS LINE. CONDITIONS COULD BE LOWER OR
LAST LONGER...BUT DIDNT WANT TO BE OVERLY PESSIMISTIC.

THE LINE CLEARS THE TAFS BY 12Z...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BINAU
NEAR TERM...BINAU/FRANKS
SHORT TERM...BINAU
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
509 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-260915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
509 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

DUE TO THE REPEATED PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS
WEEK THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO INDIANA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

DUE TO THE REPEATED PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING THIS
WEEK THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
735 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             SW XENIA                39.69N 83.94W
05/25/2011  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             OH   PUBLIC

            JUST OFF LOWER BELLBROOKE ROAD.

&&

MIKEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
737 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             DAYTON                  39.78N 84.20W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NR INTERSECTION I75 AND I675

0709 PM     HAIL             KENTON VALE             39.05N 84.52W
05/25/2011  E0.88 INCH       KENTON             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0714 PM     HAIL             CENTERVILLE             39.64N 84.14W
05/25/2011  E1.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0718 PM     HAIL             BELLBROOK               39.64N 84.09W
05/25/2011  E3.00 INCH       GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL 2.5 TO 3 INCH, WINDS EST 50-60 MPH, VRY HVY RAIN
            VSBY NR ZERO

0719 PM     HAIL             KETTERING               39.70N 84.15W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0728 PM     HAIL             BEAVERCREEK             39.73N 84.06W
05/25/2011  M1.00 INCH       GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0731 PM     HAIL             BEAVERCREEK             39.73N 84.06W
05/25/2011  M1.50 INCH       GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM     HAIL             BELLBROOK               39.64N 84.09W
05/25/2011  E2.00 INCH       GREENE             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HUGHES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
741 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             XENIA                   39.69N 83.94W
05/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             OH   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KURZ