Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1008 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION...EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A SLOW MOVING MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED NW TO SE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BETWEEN DAYTON AND COLUMBUS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL COMBINE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
TRIGGER THROUGHOUT THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ONCE ENOUGH DIURNAL
COOLING OCCURS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH
INTO THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHTTIME...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS IN THE OFFING DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

A MID LVL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL NOT BRING COMPLETE
DRY WEATHER AS A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
THIS...ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK WX DISTURBANCES
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING
THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...MORE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE
HIGHER CHC FOR PCPN WILL TEMPER HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN FACT...THE FLOW WILL BECOME BLOCKY IN
NATURE AND WILL RESULT IN LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS TO MOVE
MORE NORTH TO SOUTH THAN WEST TO EAST. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NCEP/HPC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z ECMWF TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY TO THE
FORECAST AS WELL AS TO BETTER COLLABORATE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

AN UPR LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST STATES FROM
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACRS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
A MOISTURE FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE PULLED BACK WEST INTO
THE REGION...RESULTING IN THE THREAT FOR PCPN. HAVE KEPT BOTH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING OVER TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS
INSTBY DECREASES WITH A COOLER AIRMASS. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THE THREAT OF PCPN WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS POISED AT THIS TIME TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT BY
THEN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SHOW A COOLING TREND
GIVEN CLOUDS...PCPN AND A NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW. COULD EVEN BE
COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT EXTREME AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS COMING TO AN END ACROSS MUCH
OF OUR AREA WITH BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER REMAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT
IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING
TONIGHT...HOWEVER PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR
FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR LUK/DAY...KEEPING IN MIND THAT IF FOG DOES
BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THAT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS MAY BECOME WORSE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LESS OVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
831 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-120045-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
831 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1144 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     HAIL             5 NW BAINBRIDGE         39.28N 83.29W
05/10/2011  E1.75 INCH       ROSS               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1154 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

OHZ052>055-064-110430-
CHAMPAIGN OH-CLARK OH-FRANKLIN OH-MADISON OH-PICKAWAY OH-
1154 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
PICKAWAY...MADISON...WESTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN CLARK AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 AM EDT...

AT 1150 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CLARK...CHAMPAIGN...AND MADISON COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...LONDON...JEFFERSON...
HILLIARD...LAKE DARBY AND MOUNT STERLING.

ALSO...LAFAYETTE...AMITY...SOUTH SOLON...MADISON LAKE...MIDWAY...
LILLY CHAPEL...BIG PLAIN AND NEW ROME ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3969 8304 3969 8326 3972 8362 4003 8379
      4012 8370 4011 8314

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1157 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     HAIL             2 SW WASHINGTON COURT H 39.52N 83.46W
05/10/2011  E0.75 INCH       FAYETTE            OH   PUBLIC

&&

HATZOS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1226 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 AM     HAIL             2 E SOUTH VIENNA        39.93N 83.57W
05/11/2011  E0.88 INCH       CLARK              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MPADGETT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1231 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     HAIL             PEEBLES                 38.95N 83.41W
05/11/2011  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              OH   PUBLIC

&&

MPADGETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

OHZ044-045-110515-
LOGAN OH-UNION OH-
1247 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN UNION AND EASTERN LOGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT...

AT 1245 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW
JERUSALEM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...MARYSVILLE.

ALSO...PICKRELLTOWN...EAST LIBERTY...MIDDLEBURG...RAYMOND AND
POTTERSBURG ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 4020 8335 4021 8349 4023 8350 4024 8374
      4046 8383 4049 8348

HATZOS