River Flood Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, OH

574 
WGUS81 KILN 221614
FLSILN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON

OHC131-145-230014-
/O.EXT.KILN.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110224T1000Z/
/PKTO1.1.ER.110222T1551Z.110223T0600Z.110224T0400Z.NO/
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

...FLOODING NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON
* UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10 AM THE STAGE WAS 17.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE 
  TO RISE TO NEAR 19.9 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE EVENING on Wednesday.
* AT STAGES NEAR 20.0 FEET, BACKWATER FLOODING BEGINS ALONG CREEKS 
  FLOWING INTO THE SCIOTO RIVER. SCIOTO AND CAMP CREEK TOWNSHIPS IN 
  SOUTHERN PIKE COUNTY EXPERIENCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
  

$$

592 
WGUS81 KILN 222145
FLSILN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
445 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON

OHC131-145-230545-
/O.EXT.KILN.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110223T1900Z/
/PKTO1.1.ER.110222T1608Z.110223T0000Z.110223T1300Z.NO/
445 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 4 PM THE STAGE WAS 18.7 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET.
* THE RIVER IS NEAR CREST AND MIGHT CREEP UP TO NEAR 18.8 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE 
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT STAGES NEAR 19.0 FEET, FLOOD WATERS BEGIN SPILLING ONTO LOW LYING 
  COUNTY ROADS NEAR THE SCIOTO RIVER IN PIKE AND NORTHERN SCIOTO 
  COUNTIES.
  

$$

057 
WGUS81 KILN 230326
FLSILN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1026 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON

OHC131-145-231126-
/O.EXT.KILN.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110223T1652Z/
/PKTO1.1.ER.110222T1608Z.110222T2300Z.110223T1052Z.NO/
1026 PM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10 PM THE STAGE WAS 18.6 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET.
* THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE
  BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
* AT STAGES NEAR 19.0 FEET, FLOOD WATERS BEGIN SPILLING ONTO LOW LYING 
  COUNTY ROADS NEAR THE SCIOTO RIVER IN PIKE AND NORTHERN SCIOTO 
  COUNTIES.
  

$$

358 
WGUS81 KILN 230928
FLSILN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON

OHC131-145-230958-
/O.CAN.KILN.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-110223T1652Z/
/PKTO1.1.ER.110222T1608Z.110222T2300Z.110223T0822Z.NO/
428 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SCIOTO RIVER AT PIKETON
* AT 4 AM THE STAGE WAS 17.9 FEET.
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18 FEET.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 15.9 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
652 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CLOSER TO MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY. WENT UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF FA. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT
OBS...PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT FZDZ. CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF FZDZ
IS LOW AND THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY WINDS TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RISING VERY
MUCH TODAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING TONIGHT AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT
WENT AHEAD AND DECREASED LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S. WAA BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPERATURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE BEGINS A SLOW RISE. PRECIPITATION
WILL JUST START TO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND
THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. WENT AHEAD AND
INSERTED FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL INTO THE FORECAST. AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE
EXACT LOW TRACK WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FA AND THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE FA.
THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP. MODELS ARE
SIMILAR IN BRINGING A LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. DUE TO THIS
HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 100 PERCENT. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND THEREFORE ADDITIONAL RISES WILL BE LIKELY ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN
THE HWO.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE FA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM FCST. THIS BLENDED SOLUTION OFFERS THE BEST CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FCST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS TO
S/WV ENERGY EJECTING NE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE FORECAST. A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BRING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST IMPACT WILL BE AT KDAY ALTHOUGH OTHER LOCATIONS MAY GET
SOME TEMPORARY IFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE
PASSES EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT TO ABOVE 2000 FT ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAIN MVFR. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO TONIGHT. FIRST OFF
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD BECOME VFR. THEN THERE ARE
CONFLICTING SIGNALS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OR WHETHER THEY WILL
LOWER AGAIN. OPTED FOR CLEARING. BUT IF THIS HAPPENS THEN MVFR
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO LINGERING NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
454 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-231000-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
454 AM EST TUE FEB 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELEVATED LEVELS WILL OCCUR ON RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO PREVIOUS
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED LEVELS ON RIVERS AND STREAMS WITH
SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.