Heat Advisory 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

Dearborn County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Ohio County, IN, Ripley County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Adams County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Highland County, OH, Pike County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Warren County, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1034 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MICHIGAN IS RACING EASTWARD THIS MORNING
AND THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF IT MAY CLIP NORTHERN CWA WHERE A WATCH
HAS ALREADY BEEN POSTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SOUTH OF I-70
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF STORMS...PRIMARILY
IF THEY BEGIN UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND/OR CENTRAL INDIANA.
THE SYSTEMS THEMSELVES ARE PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD WEST TO EAST
MOVERS AND MAY EXHIBIT THE SLIGHTEST VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THEY TAP
MORE UNSTABLE AIR. EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE LINES THAT DEVELOP TO
CONTAIN STRONG WINDS PER UPSTREAM GUSTS OVER 50-60 MPH IN CHITOWN.
AXIS OF BEST CAPE VALUES RUNS FROM CENTRAL INDIANA SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS CVG METRO AREA AND IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE MODERATE RISK
THAT WAS POSTED EARLIER THIS MORNING. 700-300 MB FLOW IS WEST
NORTHWEST SO A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL
ILL/WESTCENTRAL IN WOULD BE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR OUR SECTION OF
OHVLY TO RECEIVE DAMAGING WINDS WITH A BOWING SEGMENT MOVING E.

WHEN AND IF THESE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH...HEAT ADVISORY WILL NEED
TO BE DROPPED BUT I WILL NOT DO THIS UNTIL A COLD POOL IN THE WAKE
OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR DEW POINTS. BOTH WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY
LOWER ON TUESDAY. SO THERE WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT
INDICES. EXPECT TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY IN TIME
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SOUTH AND WEST FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. DID NOT GO COMPLETELY IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT DID LIMIT POPS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND STALL IN THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NORTH OF THIS FRONT WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY
AFFECT THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SO KEPT SOME POPS IN THERE. OTHERWISE EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS WHETHER AN MCS
COULD POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AFFECT THE
AREA BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. BUT THERE IS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG AN
INVERTED TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE SURFACE HIGH. ANY STORMS WOULD
PRIMARILY BE DIURNAL WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING AND TAF SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND THEREFORE HAVE VCTS AND CB MENTION IN THE
TAFS. AT KLUK AND KCVG WENT WITH ONLY A CB MENTION AS LIKELIHOOD
OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 18 TO
20 KNOT RANGE. PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ034-035-
     042>044-051>055-060>065-073-074.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ070>072-078>082-
     088.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR OHZ077.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-059.
     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070>072-078>082-088-121430-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE
LATER TODAY...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE A VERY REAL
THREAT...AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

INZ050-058-059-OHZ042-051-053>055-060>065-073-074-121430-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-DARKE-MIAMI-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO AND MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE A VERY REAL
THREAT...AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OHZ034-035-043-044-052-121430-
MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-CHAMPAIGN-
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE A VERY REAL
THREAT...AND SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OHZ026-045-046-056-121430-
HARDIN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-LICKING-
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SINCE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

OHZ077-121430-
HAMILTON-
1025 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BEGIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY
CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE A VERY REAL THREAT...AND
SOME LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD ACTIVATE AND REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1219 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

OHZ026-034-035-111745-
AUGLAIZE OH-HARDIN OH-MERCER OH-
1219 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...

AT 1215 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST
OHIO AND NORTHEAST INDIANA...MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...COLDWATER...ST.
HENRY...CELINA...ST. MARYS...NEW BREMEN...MINSTER...NEW KNOXVILLE...
WAPAKONETA...WAYNESFIELD...KENTON...FOREST AND DUNKIRK.

ALSO...TAMA...MENDON...MONTEZUMA...CARTHAGENA...NEPTUNE...CHICKASAW..
.MARIA STEIN AND BULKHEAD ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AS THEY ENTER THE AREA. BE PREPARED IN CASE WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4082 8350 4071 8349 4071 8344 4068 8341
      4050 8342 4054 8399 4048 8400 4048 8434
      4038 8434 4036 8480 4071 8476 4074 8461
      4073 8446 4069 8445 4069 8423 4066 8422
      4065 8389 4082 8387

BINAU