Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
755 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...HAVE UPPED POPS SEVERAL CATEGORIES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING ALONG
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT A GOOD PORTION OF THE INLAND AREA OF THE SC ILM CWA
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE SEVERE WX EVENT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SVR POTENTIAL. SMALL HAIL WILL
ALSO BE COMMON. ACTIVITY DID FLARE UP AS IT ENCOUNTERED THE SEA
BREEZE EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TRACKING
EASTWARD ALONG A TIGHTENED SFC DEWPOINT GRADIENT. AS THIS ACTIVITY
TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...IT WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE INSTABILITY DECREASING...BEST SEEN
WITH SFC BASED LIS AND CAPE. MAY HAVE TO INCREASE MINS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SC...DUE TO RAINFALL AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS LASTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS ON
FRIDAY DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY LATE ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE
WEAK COLD FRONT NOW WAVERING ABOUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE DROPPED WELL TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
PRESSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BE LINED UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE. LIMITING FACTORS CONTINUE TO BE DRY MID
LEVELS AND LACK OF STRONG TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. IN ANY
CASE...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION AT LEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS DURING TIMES OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND CLIMO...WITH HIGHS
OF AROUND 90 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AN APPRECIABLE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST
DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL AFTER THE DIURNAL PEAK IN
INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY LAG THE BEST MOISTURE. EVEN SO...IT
SEEMS THAT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT EVEN THOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS COULD LEAD TO DISAPPOINTING QPF. THE
BOUNDARY WILL DECELERATE AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO SOME RAIN CHANCES
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DRY
ADVECTION REALLY KICKS IN. NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALBEIT IN A DECREASING
AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND
LOWER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO CLIMO EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD BUT MORE AS A FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER AS OPPOSED TO AIRMASS
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR THROUGH VALID PERIOD GIVEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY CAUSING BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS...AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT BEFORE SUNRISE.

CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. KFLO WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. AS A
RESULT...SHORT-LIVED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY
STORMS MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ACTIVITY HOLDS
TOGETHER...COULD AFFECT KMYR/KCRE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
UPDATE AS NEEDED. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT VFR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

BEFORE SUNRISE...HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT AT INLAND TERMINALS AND SHRA ACTIVITY AT
COASTALS. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY...THUS
HAVE INDICATED VCSH FOR NOW AT ALL TERMINALS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WINDS WILL BE NE AROUND 5KTS. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL SHIFT WINDS
MORE SE WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10KTS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 745 PM THURSDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS TO EVENTUALLY
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KT OVERNIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO
SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND A WEAK HIGH MOVING TO AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...AND FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SE
STATES. SEAS TO REMAIN AROUND 2 FEET.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP WELL SOUTH OF
THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE LINED UP ALONG THE APPALACHIANS BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM THE
EAST EARLY ON FRIDAY TO THE SW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN SLACK...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT...RIGHT AROUND 10 KTS
OR LESS. SEAS WILL STAY IN THE 2 OR 3 FT RANGE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ABOUT
5KT WITH THE APPROACH OF A MODERATELY STRONG SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS EITHER VERY
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY WITH A PRONOUNCED VEER IN THE WIND
DIRECTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEEDS. THIS MAY LEAD
TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF CHOPPY CONFUSION IN THE SEAS BUT THE OVERALL
FCST WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE...HIGHEST
OFFSHORE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY A NORTHEAST WIND OF 10KT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO ABATE
SLIGHTLY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...SGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
804 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

NCZ105-107-109-SCZ055-130015-
INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
804 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-099-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-130015-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
804 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
EVENING. THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH...WITH AN ISOLATED 60 MPH. SMALL HAIL MARBLE UP TO DIME SIZE
WILL BE COMMON...WITH AN ISOLATED NICKEL SIZE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-130015-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
804 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-130015-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
804 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DOUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
852 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW FLORENCE          34.19N  79.81W
08/11/2011                   FLORENCE           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON HOFFMYER RD NEAR ENTRANCE TO FLORENCE
            MALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1100483

LACORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
853 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N FLORENCE            34.23N  79.79W
08/11/2011                   FLORENCE           SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN ON MECHANICVILLE RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1100484

LACORTE

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