Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1055 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED HOT WEATHER WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IF THE REMNANTS OF EMILY ARE
ABLE TO REFORM THEY WILL MOST LIKELY STAY FAR OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM JUST
SOUTH OF KILM TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORENCE. CLOUD COVER IS VERY
EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE CONVECTION WILL
KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW EARLIER FORECAST HIGHS. ANY
SUN THAT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY
HEAT UP AND AREAS MAY STILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE CRITICAL HEAT
INDEX OF 105. IT WILL BE CLOSE...SO WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY UP
BU THE UNCERTAINTY FOR IT VERIFYING IS BECOMING HIGHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 AM FRIDAY...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE THE THEME AS
WHAT IS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST PREVAILS. WITH TONIGHTS
ACTIVITY CONVECTION HAS A ROBUST START AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL CARRY THE DAY REGARDING FORCING. THE
INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY BE PRESENT WITH APPROXIMATELY 2000 J/KG
OF MIXED LAYER CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WET MICROBURSTS WILL ALSO
BE FAIR GAME EACH DAY AND SPC HAS THE AREA IN SEE TEXT FOR
SATURDAY. I ALSO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY BECAUSE OF A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUBTLE MID LEVEL
FORCING SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF WE SEE JUST
AS MUCH ACTIVITY SUNDAY AND THE SUBSEQUENT FORECAST MAY NEED TO
INCREASE THE POPS. THE BEAT GOES ON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT
ADVISORIES BOTH AFTERNOONS ESPECIALLY SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 AM FRIDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HPC MAINTAINS A BLEND OF THE
GEM AND ECMWF OPERATIONAL MODEL WHICH SHOWS A SUBTLE NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THIS SETUP THE PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL
BE A MAINSTAY AND POPS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SHORTWAVES. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BOUNDARY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 15Z...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO
WHETHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION BEGAN EARLY TODAY WITH CURRENT RADAR ALREADY DEPICTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DECENT INSTABILITY...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN SCATTERED NATURE OF
ACTIVITY...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND CB AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT HAVE NOT
INDICATED SPECIFIC RESTRICTIONS DUE TO STRONGER STORMS WHICH MAY
LAST FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL SHIFT
WINDS MORE S WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHRA/TSRA.

AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A LIGHT NOCTURNAL JET. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRATUS
LAYER DEVELOPMENT WILL PREVAIL OVER FOG. HOWEVER...AREAS EXPERIENCED
BOTH FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR...IF NOT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR BOTH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
ATTM...HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANY RESTRICTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
VALID PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COAST WATERS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET
WITH 4.5 FEET TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS
BUOY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND WINDS WILL RETURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 AM FRIDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR MARINE COMMUNITY FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE SWELL MOVING IN FROM THE REMNANTS OF EMILY
LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS
LOOK REASONABLE WITH 4-6 FEET...NOT EXCESSIVE CONSIDERING THE
HISTORY AND CURRENT STATE OF WHAT IS NOW A TROPICAL WAVE.
OTHERWISE...THE STANDARD 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE WIDESPREAD AT TIMES.
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 AM FRIDAY...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED MARINE COMMUNITY. ANY SWELL GENERATED BY THE REMNANTS OF
EMILY WILL BE ABATING WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 3-5 FEET
EARLY DECREASING TO 2-4 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BE
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN A RANGE OF 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-053>056.

NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
524 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

AMZ250-252-254-256-060930-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
524 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-060930-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
524 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. ANY THUNDERSTORM
MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-060930-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-
524 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SRP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1108 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

NCZ107>110-051600-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
1108 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2011

...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO TWO
INCHES ACROSS SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER
COUNTY...AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY. THIS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE CAROLINA BEACH...LELAND...WILMINGTON...
MASONBORO...MYRTLE GROVE...SILVER LAKE...WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND
BELVILLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3415 7783 3390 7794 3383 7795 3383 7796
      3384 7798 3425 7805 3429 7772 3428 7772

MORGAN