Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT MAY
DECREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM THE SURFACE UP
THROUGH 700 MB THE BERMUDA HIGH RETAINS CONTROL AND IS CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE. VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS (+20C TO +22C) OVERHEAD SHOW THE
AIRMASS IS SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE MODELS WERE CORRECT WITH LAST NIGHT'S FORECAST OF A MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL JET (25 KNOTS AT 1000 FT AGL) WHICH HELPED KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL-MIXED. THIS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AT THE COAST...WITH WIDESPREAD
UPPER 70S INLAND. THIS AGAIN IS SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

SURFACE-BASED CAPE UPWARDS OF 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED
INDICES DOWN TO -7 WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEABREEZE FRONT AND FARTHER INLAND NEAR THE PIEDMONT TROUGH. VERY
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT MEAN THE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY...WITH IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER ISOLATED
AREAS. LACK OF SYNOPTIC SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK END FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM FRIDAY...HE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE MAIN FEATURES AT
THE SURFACE FOR OUR AREA BEING THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...SEA BREEZE AND
THE BERMUDA HIGH. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKLY FORCED AND ISOLATED.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE GFS IS VOID OF ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING MORE COVERAGE WITH HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATERS. A COMPARISON OF THE MODEL INITIALIZATION WITH
MORNING RAOBS SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS INCONCLUSIVE. WILL
THEREFORE LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS. THERMAL
PROFILES CHANGE LITTLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TRIPLE DIGITS
INLAND AND TRIPLE DIGIT APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS. WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR TOMORROW WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM FRIDAY...HOT UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE RETROGRADED WESTWARD
BY MONDAY BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCALLY. SCTD TSTMS THAT
THUS DEVELOP ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY AFFECT WESTERN ZONES. SEA
BREEZE MAY ALSO MAKE A SMALL CONTRIBUTION TO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ALTHOUGH ITS INLAND PROGRESS WILL BE MINIMIZED BY WNW LOW LEVEL
WINDS ATOP THE SW SURFACE FLOW. ON TUESDAY THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
USHER IN A SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX BETWEEN THE
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER IN THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS
SHOULD ARGUABLY RAISE RAINFALL CHANCES AREA-WIDE BUT STILL EXPECT
COVERAGE NO GREATER THAN WIDELY SCATTERED. SHOULD CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BE GREATER OR INITIATION EARLIER THEN TEMPERATURES MAY BE
HELD IN CHECK SLIGHTLY FROM THEIR OTHERWISE ABOVE CLIMO VALUES THAT
WILL OTHERWISE CHARACTERIZE THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
ROTATES AROUND THE FORMER RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHT RISES BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM POINTS WEST.
THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND EAST YET AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CAPPING
ALL BUT NEGLIGIBLE RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING EXTREME HEAT BACK INTO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SYNOPTICALLY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS BUT THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ALOFT. WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND LARGE INSTABILITY VALUES...SOMETHING
WILL BREAK THE CAP. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 22 KTS NEAR THE COAST AS SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION SQUEEZES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WILL
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CAROLINAS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN 15-20 KT WINDS. THIS
AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE IS ADDING A FEW KNOTS TO THE WIND SPEEDS WITH
SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO REACH 25 KNOTS NEAR SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. WE'LL MONITOR THESE WINDS CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE
OF AN 'EXERCISE CAUTION' HEADLINE. ALL THIS WIND WILL CREATE 3-4 FT
SEAS WITH DOMINANT PERIODS MUCH SHORTER THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WHEN EASTERLY SWELL FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM BRET
DOMINATED THE AREA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM FRIDAY...MUCH LIKE THE PUBLIC PART OF THE FORECAST THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BE MODULATED BY THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND SEA BREEZE WITH 10-15
KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH SEAS ARE CONSISTENT WITH 2-4
FEET PRIMARILY FROM WIND WAVES. HOWEVER THERE ARE A FEW FIVE FOOTERS
SHOWING UP AROUND 06000 UTC SUNDAY COINCIDING WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
AND THE RANGE OF WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS. MAY NEED A SCEC FOR THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM FRIDAY...A WELL DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH PAIRED WITH THE
WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH WILL BRING A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UP
AND DOWN THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY. THE FORMER FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
ON TUESDAY BRINGING A REDUCTION IN WIND SPEED AS THE DIRECTION VEERS
SLIGHTLY. WIND WILL RETAIN A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH STILL HAS SOME INFLUENCE BUT THE FLOW
WILL OTHERWISE BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE AS A POORLY DEFINED
GRADIENT BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND CHOP
AND A LESSER SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT AND AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FT. ON
WEDNESDAY THE WIND WAVES MAY ABATE JUST ENOUGH TO LOWER THE OVERALL
SIG WAVE HEIGHT A FOOT OR SO.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
     023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105>110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...HDL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NCZ099-109-221830-
COLUMBUS-INLAND BRUNSWICK-
202 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BRUNSWICK/COLUMBUS
COUNTY BORDER...

AT 201 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MAKATOKA...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF SHALLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE EXUM AND MAKATOKA.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED. MOTORISTS
ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION IN THESE AREAS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN
INDOORS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3431 7827 3421 7815 3407 7843 3414 7850

BACON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NCZ087-221915-
ROBESON-
251 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ROBESON COUNTY...

AT 250 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS...6 MILES NORTH OF
FAIRMONT...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUMBERTON...STATIONARY.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO EXPECTED.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE LUMBERTON...BARKER TEN
MILE...HESTERTOWN...PURVIS...MCDONALD AND RAYNHAM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3474 7894 3458 7888 3447 7919 3459 7930

BACON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

NCZ105-107-109-221930-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
257 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RIEGELWOOD...

AT 257 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS...OVER PHOENIX...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE CASTLE HAYNE...LONG
CREEK...MALPASS CORNER...MONTAGUE...PHOENIX...THE BOROUGH...WOODBURN
AND SANDY CREEK.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3439 7784 3420 7809 3431 7820 3435 7816
      3436 7817 3454 7804

BACON

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