Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Wilmington, NC

713 
WWUS52 KILM 232030
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
430 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

NCC155-232100-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110623T2100Z/
ROBESON NC-
430 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR ROBESON COUNTY...

AT 424 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM PARKTON TO RAEMON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR RED SPRINGS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO REX...
RENNERT...ROWLAND...PURVIS...ELROD...BUIE...PEMBROKE...RAYNHAM...
MCDONALD...ST. PAULS...HOWELLSVILLE...LUMBERTON AND BARKER TEN MILE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS!

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3490 7893 3475 7886 3442 7922 3464 7946
      3477 7934 3482 7936 3484 7935 3484 7919
      3496 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 262DEG 27KT 3496 7892 3466 7940

$$

RJD

016 
WWUS52 KILM 232101
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
501 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

NCC155-232108-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-110623T2100Z/
ROBESON NC-
501 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROBESON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
500 PM EDT...

AT 500 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 
SAINT PAULS TO ROWLAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 
PORTIONS OF ROBESON AND BLADEN COUNTIES...UNTIL 6 PM EDT.

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THESE 
DANGEROUS STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3490 7893 3475 7886 3442 7922 3464 7946
      3477 7934 3482 7936 3484 7935 3484 7919
      3496 7903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 262DEG 27KT 3499 7865 3469 7913

$$

RJD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
THEN WEAKEN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 PM EDT. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE
DRIVING FORCE TO ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER IS AN ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTACT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...STRONG HEATING AND P/W VALUES UP NEAR 2
INCHES...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

ACTIVITY WILL FADE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT PASSES OFFSHORE AND
AS DAYTIME HEATING SHUT DOWN. STEADY SWLY FLOW MEANS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID
70S FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...MAIN PLAYERS WILL BE A WEAK UPPER TROF ALONG
THE EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN HOT AND DUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT BY FRI
NIGHT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD COME AROUND TO DUE WEST AND
HOPEFULLY ABATE THE SMOKE ISSUES FROM THE GEORGIA WILDFIRES. MIN
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE SW WINDS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH DAY
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE WATER. IF ANYTHING SATURDAY
SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS WE LOSE THE FILTERING EFFECTS
OF THE DISTANT SMOKE. LOCALLY GENERATED SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
PENDER AND BLADEN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ITS OWN
ISSUE...LIKELY BEST HANDLED IN NEAR-TERM AND SHORT-FUSE PRODUCTS.

PIEDMONT TROF AND SEABREEZE WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT ANY FEATURES ALOFT TO
ENHANCE LIFT ARE HARD TO IDENTIFY AND TIME. BETWEEN THAT AND THE
FACT WE ARE IN A DROUGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE IS THE BEST WE CAN DO FOR
POPS. HOWEVER...ASIDE FROM A DRY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
VORT MAX TONIGHT...THIS REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AT 850 MB...THE RIDGE WHICH IS WEAKENED A BIT
WITH THE TROUGH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD
TO THE WEST WITH TIME... AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
TUG-A-WAR WITH THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS REBOUND FROM LOWS AROUND 1.65
INCHES ON SUNDAY MORNING TO APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE PROVIDING A SMALL HOPE THAT THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL PATTERN FOR
THE MOISTURE STARVED AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MID 90S INLAND AND TO NEAR NINETY AT THE
BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ONGOING WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA.

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PLUMES OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE IN SE
GEORGIA MAKING ITS WAY UP TO THE TERMINALS CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS. GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND PATTERN EXPECT THIS TO LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE A FORECAST ISSUE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD
TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY. ONLY INCLUDING CB IN TAF FOR NOW AS
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LOW. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CREATING A TIGHTENED
PG...RESULTING IN GENERALLY STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY WINDS ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL LLJ SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG/STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRE IN SE GEORGIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY STAGNANT PATTERN WITH A SW
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A PIEDMONT TROF RESULT IN A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS FAR AS WINDS. WILL KEEP 15-20 KT AT LEAST
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SMALL SEABREEZE-DRIVEN OSCILLATIONS TOWARD
THE SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WEST IN THE EARLY MORNINGS.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...MAINLY IN SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH A BIT SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT GETS CLOSER
AND STALLS OUT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO
2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

SEAS SHOULD BE WELL BEHAVED AND RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 4 FEET NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LARGE WILDFIRES IN BLADEN AND PENDER COUNTIES CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY. THE JUNIPER ROAD FIRE IN PENDER COUNTY IS BY
FAR THE LARGER AND MORE PROBLEMATIC FIRE. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY
REMAINS POSTED FOR MAINLY THE NE SECTIONS OF PENDER COUNTY...WITH
HIGHWAY 50 BEING THE MOST AFFECTED LOCATION AT THIS TIME. MINOR
WIND SHIFTS COULD EXPAND THOSE ISSUES TO HIGHWAY 17. COULD SEE
VISIBILITY PROBLEMS IN ALL DIRECTIONS FROM THE FIRE AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY DUE TO POOR DISPERSION AND HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.

LOW-LEVEL JETTING MAY BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
25-30 KT JUST 2000 FEET OFF THE DECK. THIS BEARS WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIOR IMPACTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SIMMONS ROAD FIRE IN BLADEN COUNTY...AND
COULD AGGRAVATE EITHER FIRE VIA SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS IF LITTLE
OR NO PRECIP FALLS DIRECTLY ON THE FIRES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ105-106.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...ECT/REK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

NCZ105-106-241900-
INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-099-107>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-241900-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-241900-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

SCZ017-231930-
MARLBORO-
306 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF WALLACE...

AT 304 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS...3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WALLACE...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF CHERAW...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS STORM COULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE WITH LITTLE NOTICE.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT IF IT DOES
INTENSIFY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE CHAVISTOWN AND WALLACE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3481 7967 3472 7957 3472 7958 3466 7982
      3469 7987 3475 7990 3475 7992 3480 7994
      3481 7993

HAWKINS