Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wilmington, NC

260 
WWUS52 KILM 231946
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
346 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

SCC031-041-232030-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110623T2030Z/
DARLINGTON SC-FLORENCE SC-
346 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN FLORENCE AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LAMAR...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TIMMONSVILLE...AUBURN...FLOYD...DARLINGTON...DOVESVILLE...FLORENCE...
MONT CLARE...QUINBY...MECHANICSVILLE...CLAUSSEN AND MARS BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3449 7978 3444 7975 3437 7967 3436 7969
      3430 7966 3429 7961 3424 7956 3418 7957
      3413 7955 3403 7998 3407 8003 3409 8008
      3414 8015 3416 8016 3420 8012 3423 8012
      3430 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 252DEG 30KT 3417 8006

$$

HAWKINS

224 
WWUS52 KILM 232003
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
403 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

SCC031-041-232030-
/O.CON.KILM.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110623T2030Z/
DARLINGTON SC-FLORENCE SC-
403 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN FLORENCE AND DARLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 359 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DARLINGTON...OR 3 MILES SOUTH OF
DARLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MONT CLARE...
QUINBY...MECHANICSVILLE...CLAUSSEN AND MARS BLUFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3430 8003 3449 7978 3444 7975 3437 7968
      3436 7969 3430 7966 3429 7961 3424 7956
      3419 7957 3413 7955 3410 7996 3415 8004
      3420 8009 3423 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 252DEG 30KT 3427 7983

$$

HAWKINS

033 
WWUS52 KILM 232024
SVSILM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
424 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

SCC031-041-232034-
/O.EXP.KILM.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-110623T2030Z/
DARLINGTON SC-FLORENCE SC-
424 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN FLORENCE AND
DARLINGTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...

AT 424 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING
HAS WEAKENED...THUS THE WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3430 8003 3449 7978 3444 7975 3437 7968
      3436 7969 3430 7966 3429 7961 3424 7956
      3419 7957 3413 7955 3410 7996 3415 8004
      3420 8009 3423 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 252DEG 30KT 3371 7941

$$

HAWKINS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
316 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND
THEN WEAKEN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 10 PM EDT. AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...THE
DRIVING FORCE TO ANTICIPATED SEVERE WEATHER IS AN ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WHILE THE FRONT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT INTACT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER SUPPORT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...STRONG HEATING AND P/W VALUES UP NEAR 2
INCHES...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION. BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS.

ACTIVITY WILL FADE OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT PASSES OFFSHORE AND
AS DAYTIME HEATING SHUT DOWN. STEADY SWLY FLOW MEANS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MID
70S FOR MINIMUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...TROUGHINESS EXTENDING UP AND DOWN THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE CLOSE TO CLIMO AND LOW COVERAGE/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH
BOTH TROUGH AND SEABREEZE SERVING AS FOCI ALTHOUGH THE LATTER WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. DIURNAL HEATING LOSS WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE TO NO STORMS OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR PERHAPS WELL OUTSIDE OF
MARINE ZONES OVER GULF STREAM. BOTH THE MID AND UPPER TROUGHS WEAKEN
ON SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES AND
ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASE RAIN CHANCES...PROBABLY DOWN INTO THE
SCHC/ISO RANGE. IN CONTRAST TO THE GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE PREV
FORECAST THE WRF SEEMS TO BE FORMULATING A NEW IDEA...THAT THE
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ASSOC WITH THE TROUGH DRIES US OUT AND THAT
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE QUITE MINIMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...AT 850 MB...THE RIDGE WHICH IS WEAKENED A BIT
WITH THE TROUGH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD
TO THE WEST WITH TIME... AND THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A
TUG-A-WAR WITH THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS REBOUND FROM LOWS AROUND 1.65
INCHES ON SUNDAY MORNING TO APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE PROVIDING A SMALL HOPE THAT THE CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE RETURNING TO MORE NORMAL PATTERN FOR
THE MOISTURE STARVED AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE MID 90S INLAND AND TO NEAR NINETY AT THE
BEACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DUE TO POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND ONGOING WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING INTO THE AREA.

CURRENT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PLUMES OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE IN SE
GEORGIA MAKING ITS WAY UP TO THE TERMINALS CAUSING PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBYS. GIVEN THE CURRENT WIND PATTERN EXPECT THIS TO LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE A FORECAST ISSUE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA COULD
TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY. ONLY INCLUDING CB IN TAF FOR NOW AS
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LOW. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CREATING A TIGHTENED
PG...RESULTING IN GENERALLY STRONGER AND GUSTIER WINDS. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND STEADY WINDS ALONG WITH
NOCTURNAL LLJ SHOULD KEEP ANY FOG/STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO ONGOING
WILDFIRE IN SE GEORGIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PERSISTENT S TO SWLY FLOW IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 3 TO 5 FT RANGE THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SO TYPICAL OF JUNE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY INCREASED AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
PIEDMONT TROUGH PINCHES. WRF PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE IN ITS LOW
LEVEL JET AND SUBSEQUENT MIXING DUE TO WARM SSTS. HAVE BUMPED WINDS
UP AND SEAS NOW IN SCEC-REQUIRING 3 TO 5 FT RANGE. WINDS ON SATURDAY
COULD EITHER MAINTAIN STATUS QUO OR WEAKEN. A WEAKENING TREND WOULD
BE SUPPORTED BY THE FACT THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH SQUEEZES THE GRADIENT LESS. HOWEVER...MODELS HINTING
AT A LOW LEVEL JET TO SLIGHTLY OFFSET THIS. FOR NOW FEEL A GOOD
CAUTIOUS APPROACH IS TO FCST SIMILAR CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL
GIVE WAY TO A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH AND
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS WITH SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

SEAS SHOULD BE WELL BEHAVED AND RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF 4 FEET NORTH OF CAPE FEAR ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ105-106.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...REK
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ALL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

NCZ105-106-241900-
INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-099-107>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-241900-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-
FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-241900-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
248 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

SCZ017-231930-
MARLBORO-
306 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE JUST NORTHWEST OF WALLACE...

AT 304 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS...3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
WALLACE...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF CHERAW...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

THIS STORM COULD INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE WITH LITTLE NOTICE.
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT IF IT DOES
INTENSIFY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE CHAVISTOWN AND WALLACE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3481 7967 3472 7957 3472 7958 3466 7982
      3469 7987 3475 7990 3475 7992 3480 7994
      3481 7993

HAWKINS