Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
220 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD HELP
PUSH SMOKE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. HIGHER LEVELS OF HEAT
AND HUMIDITY HOWEVER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY IS THE
EXTENT OF RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLLY
SHELTER WILDFIRE. LATEST HYSPLIT RUNS INDICATE THE SMOKE PLUME
CURRENTLY BEING GUIDED SOUTHWARD WILL CURL SOUTHWEST AND THEN
EVENTUALLY WEST AND TO THE NORTH AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD
OF THE REGION. A SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...TRAPPING SMOKE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

WILL CONFINE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY TO COUNTIES NEAREST AND MOST
AFFECTED BY THE SMOKE. NAMELY PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK
COUNTIES. AREAS OUTSIDE OR ADJACENT TO THESE 3 COUNTIES WILL LIKELY
HAVE VISIBILITY PROBLEMS DUE TO ADDED ASH PARTICULATE CONCENTRATIONS
AND CONDUCIVE FOG FORMATION. THIS CAN BE ADDRESSED WITH A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AS TRENDS DICTATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ISOLATED SHRA/TSTMS POPPING NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD
WANE WITH FADING INSOLATION...BUT MAY HAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
IN THE "REST OF THE AFTERNOON" PERIOD...MAINLY SOUTH COASTAL
REGION.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...AREAS NEAR THE HOLLY SHELTER FIRE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE PLAGUED BY SMOKE UNTIL THE INVERSION BREAKS SATURDAY MORNING
AND THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT...AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES CONSOLIDATES NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL
TAKE HOLD ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME REESTABLISHED BY
SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE MINS ARE NEAR NORMAL. GRIM OUTLOOK FOR MUCH
NEEDED RAIN DURING THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ON THE LOW SIDE...INSTABILITY IS ONLY PROJECTED TO BE MARGINAL...AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT. ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST EACH DAY...AND ANY CELLS WOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY...
LEAVING A WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS. SFC GRADIENT IS
SLACK AND SLOPPY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY...BUT
STALLS INLAND AND WASHES OUT BY WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN...WHICH GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...ACTUALLY JUST MEANS CLIMO POPS. WENT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY...AND THEN DIURNALLY-DRIVEN 20-30 POPS FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WARMEST DAY IS MONDAY WITH MID
90S INLAND...AND THEN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BEYOND THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXPECT SMOKE/HAZE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT THE COASTAL SITES...DETERIORATING LATE
TONIGHT AS AN INVERSION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TO SHIFT WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST AT THE COASTAL
SITES...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 8-11KTS. OVERNIGHT INTO THE SATURDAY
MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...INCREASING AGAIN
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF SMOKE SHOULD GET PUSHED NORTH
OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...SEA-BREEZE PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE WATERS
AND THIS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL NIGHTFALL UNTIL WINDS EASE. THIS
SHOULD LEAVE THE WATERS WITH A GLASSY 2 FOOT SE SWELL IN 8-9 SECOND
INTERVALS OVERNIGHT. NO TSTMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR SHORE BETWEEN MYRTLE BEACH
AND WINYAH BAY.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...A VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE ONSET
SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FLOW...THAT WILL INCREASE AS THE SEA
BREEZE EVOLVES. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A NOTCH
DURING SUNDAY AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOME ESTABLISHED. SPEEDS WILL BE
ENHANCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON BY A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. SWAN WAVE
OUTPUT LOOKS REASONABLE WITH 2 FT SEAS SATURDAY MORNING...BUILDING
TO 3 FT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST...UP TO 4
FT OFF CAPE FEAR BY SUNDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS WILL BE THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A
WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS...SO EXPECT MODEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS THRU THE PERIOD. CHANGES IN WIND SPEED WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY
BY THE SEABREEZE...WITH AN AFTERNOON/EVENING MAX AROUND 15 KT. WIND
WAVES GENERALLY 2-3 FT BUT WITH THE EVER-PRESENT 9-SEC SE SWELL
RUNNING AROUND 2 FT AS WELL...COULD SEE QUITE A FEW 4-FOOTERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...HIGH LVORI VALUES LATE TONIGHT WILL PROMOTE
AREAS OF DENSE SMOKE/FOG OR "SUPER FOG" NEAR BOTH THE SIMMONS ROAD
AND JUNIPER ROADS WILDFIRES. RECENT HYSPLIT RUNS AND AN EXPECTED
VEERING OF TRANSPORT WINDS TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION HAS PROMPTED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PENDER...NEW HANOVER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES.
THIS COULD AGAIN CAUSE SEVERELY REDUCED VSBYS OVER PORTIONS OF I-40
AND HIGHWAY 17. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHARPENING INLAND TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO DIRECT SMOKE PRIMARILY NORTH OF
THE FIRES BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...SGL/MJC
FIRE WX....MJC

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