Alert archive / North Carolina / High Surf Advisories in 2011

High Surf Advisory 3, NWS Wilmington, NC

October 10, 2011Brunswick County, New Hanover County, Pender County, North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, South Carolina

NWS Wilmington, NC issued this high surf advisory at Oct 10, 2011, 4:56 AM EDT for Brunswick County, New Hanover County, Pender County, North Carolina; Georgetown County, Horry County, South Carolina. It was in force for 29 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 10, 2011, 4:56 AM EDT (08:56 UTC)
Expired
Oct 11, 2011, 9:58 AM EDT
In force
29 hr
Issued by
NWS Wilmington, NC

Counties Brunswick County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Pender County, NC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 3 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2011-10-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 16 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2011-10-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 108 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
16 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
743 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

404 
WHUS42 KILM 100856
CFWILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
456 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-102000-
/O.NEW.KILM.SU.Y.0003.111010T0856Z-111011T1000Z/
/O.EXT.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111011T1000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
456 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT
  TODAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE BEACHES.

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8
  FEET TODAY. ISOLATED LARGER SETS OF UP TO 9 FEET WILL ALSO BE
  POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PRESENT ALL DAY THROUGH
  TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE LARGE SURF IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT
  AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...MINOR OCEAN OVER-WASH IS POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH
  TIDE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE OVER-WASH WILL LIKELY
  CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION AND FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOW SPOTS
  ALONG THE BEACHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

$$

PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
NEW RIP CURRENT HAZARD...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=RCVTECCHM

29
6 follow-up statements
000 
WHUS42 KILM 101541
CFWILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1141 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-110000-
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1000Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111011T1000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
1141 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES
  TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE BEACHES. THE
  STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME
  OF LOW TIDE.

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH
  TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...MINOR OCEAN OVER-WASH IS POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH 
  TIDE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE OVER-WASH WILL LIKELY 
  CAUSE SOME BEACH EROSION AND FLOODING OF VULNERABLE LOW SPOTS 
  ALONG THE BEACHES. 

* TIMING...THE NEXT LOW TIDE IS AROUND 130 PM. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
  IS AROUND 730 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

&&

$$

RJD
260 
WHUS42 KILM 101947
CFWILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
347 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-111000-
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.Y.0011.111010T2200Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.EXT.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.EXT.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
347 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...RIP CURRENT RISK NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES
  TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY INTO THE BEACHES. THE
  STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME
  OF LOW TIDE.

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE
  EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
  TUESDAY MORNING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AROUND HIGH
  TIDE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
  FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN LOCATIONS WHERE MODERATE OR HEAVY
  RAIN IS OCCURRING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...PRIMARILY ALONG
  THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING...AND ALONG THE NORTH
  CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND POWERFUL WAVE ACTION
  WILL RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION.

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDES WILL BE AROUND 730 TONIGHT AND 8 
  AM TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW TIDES WILL BE AROUND 130 AM...AND 2 PM
  TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

JDW/RAS
689 
WHUS42 KILM 110210
CFWILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

NCZ106-108-111000-
/O.CAN.KILM.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KILM.CF.Y.0012.111011T0700Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
1010 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING 
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP CURRENTS 
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. 

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE
  EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH
  TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
  GREATEST IF HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND POWERFUL WAVE ACTION MAY RESULT
  IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION.

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 8 AM TUESDAY. THE
  NEXT LOW TIDES WILL BE AROUND 130 AM...AND 2 PM TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

NCZ110-SCZ054-056-111000-
/O.CAN.KILM.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
1010 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY. 

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING 
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP CURRENTS 
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. 

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE
  EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY
  MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND POWERFUL WAVE ACTION 
  WILL RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION. 

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 8 AM TUESDAY. THE
  NEXT LOW TIDES WILL BE AROUND 130 AM...AND 2 PM TUESDAY.

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

TRA
658 
WHUS42 KILM 110753
CFWILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

NCZ106-108-111500-
/O.CON.KILM.CF.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING 
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP CURRENTS 
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. 

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE 
  EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. 

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH 
  TIDE TUESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE 
  GREATEST IF HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND POWERFUL WAVE ACTION MAY 
  RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION. 

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 8 AM TUESDAY. THE NEXT 
  LOW TIDES WILL BE AROUND 130 AM...AND 2 PM TUESDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

NCZ110-SCZ054-056-111500-
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING 
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP CURRENTS 
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. 

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE 
  EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TUESDAY 
  MORNING. 

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND POWERFUL WAVE ACTION 
  WILL RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION. 

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 8 AM TUESDAY. THE NEXT 
  LOW TIDES WILL BE AROUND 130 AM...AND 2 PM TUESDAY. 

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
NEW RIP CURRENT HAZARD...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=RCVTECCHM
193 
WHUS42 KILM 110947
CFWILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
547 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

NCZ106-108-111800-
/O.CON.KILM.CF.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
547 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING 
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP CURRENTS 
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. 

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE
  EXPECTED AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH
  TIDE THIS MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
  GREATEST IF HEAVY RAIN IS OCCURRING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND POWERFUL WAVE ACTION MAY 
  RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION. 

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 8 AM TODAY. THE NEXT
  LOW TIDE WILL AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

NCZ110-SCZ054-056-111800-
/O.CON.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
547 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...
...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE 
  THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING 
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP CURRENTS 
  WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. 

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 8 FEET CAN BE
  EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS AND POWERFUL WAVE ACTION 
  WILL RESULT IN MODERATE BEACH EROSION. 

* TIMING...THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WILL BE AROUND 8 AM THIS MORNING.
  THE NEXT LOW TIDE WILL BE AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES WILL
COMBINE TO GENERATE SOME FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$

PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITE TO SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE
NEW RIP CURRENT HAZARD...

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=RCVTECCHM
262 
WHUS42 KILM 111358
CFWILM

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
958 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

NCZ106-108-112200-
/O.CAN.KILM.CF.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CAN.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-
958 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
  TODAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP
  CURRENTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW
  TIDE.

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVES PEAKED NEAR 6 TO 8 FT THIS
  MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING...WATER LEVELS PEAKED THIS MORNING AND WILL
  SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

* TIMING...THE NEXT LOW TIDE IS AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...JETTIES
AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY
ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. 

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN CALM
AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE
FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$

NCZ110-SCZ054-056-112200-
/O.CAN.KILM.SU.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-111011T1400Z/
/O.CON.KILM.RP.S.0005.000000T0000Z-111012T0000Z/
COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
958 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2011

...RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. 

* RIP CURRENT THREAT...HIGH. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
  TODAY DUE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE EASTERLY WAVES TRANSPORTING
  SIGNIFICANT WAVE ENERGY ONTO THE BEACHES. THE STRONG RIP
  CURRENTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY FREQUENT AROUND THE TIME OF LOW
  TIDE.

* SURF CONDITIONS...BREAKING WAVES PEAKED NEAR 6 TO 8 FT THIS
  MORNING AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.

* TIMING...THE NEXT LOW TIDE IS AROUND 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE OCEAN WILL BE VERY ROUGH FROM POWERFUL SURF AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE
ENTERING THE SURF. EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED
QUICKLY. IT IS ADVISED TO AVOID ENTERING THE OCEAN UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...JETTIES
AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND THE BEACH PATROL. PAY
ATTENTION TO FLAGS AND POSTED SIGNS. 

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. REMAIN CALM
AND BEGIN TO SWIM PARALLEL TO SHORE. ONCE YOU ARE AWAY FROM THE
FORCE OF THE RIP CURRENT...BEGIN TO SWIM BACK TO THE BEACH. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT. EVEN A STRONG
SWIMMER CAN BECOME EXHAUSTED QUICKLY.

&&

$$
RJD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high surf advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high surf advisory went out at Oct 10, 4:12 AM EDT, 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 10, 4:12 AM EDT, 44 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
412 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AND
WEAKEN AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER
FLORIDA BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WET AND
BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL WILL MOVE INTO
FL AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. TODAY WILL BE A DAY OF
TRANSITION AS THE AIR-MASS TRANSFORMS FROM ONE THAT IS DRY TO ONE
THAT WILL BECOME SATURATED. THE AIR-MASS CHANGE ALONG WITH INCREASED
LIFT FROM A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN A INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CURRENTLY LED TO SOME -RA ALONG THE
SOUTHERN ILM ZONES...HOWEVER THE COLUMN BETWEEN 900-600MB IS RATHER
DRY. GRADUALLY THE PROFILE WILL BECOME SATURATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
LATER IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE TOWARD 2.4 INCHES AS A RESULT OF NEAR
LONGITUDINAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH 850MB IS IMPRESSIVE ALONG WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT UVVS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS
THE INITIAL MOISTURE LIMITATIONS WILL LEAD TO MINIMAL QPF THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THE AREA WILL SEE A SWATH OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
CAPE FEAR SOUTH TO WILLIAMSBURG AND GEORGETOWN COUNTIES. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC ALSO SUGGESTS LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES ALONG
THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER COMPARED TO
INLAND AREAS.

FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY...WHICH ARE NEAR
NORMAL. MEANWHILE EXPECT MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TUES MORNING WILL MOVE N-NE UP THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE UP
THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE LOW WILL BE ELONGATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING UP ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THE END OF PERIOD. THE RIDGE ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WILL FINALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST AS MID TO
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUES. THIS
WILL PROVIDE A DEEP SOUTHERLY TROPICAL FEED OF MOISTURE INTO
AREA. LOOKS LIKE BEST FORCING WILL COME WITH STRONG ON SHORE PUSH
IN TIGHTENED GRADIENT ALONG COASTAL TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDING UP FROM LOW.
OVERALL BEST LIFT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO TUES.
GFS/NAM SHOW AXIS OF GREATEST PCP WATER OVER CAPE FEAR EARLY TUES
MORNING WITH VALUES UP CLOSE TO 2.25 INCHES WITH STRONG ON SHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW UP TO 45 KTS.

WINDS WILL VEER AROUND FROM E-SE TO SOUTH AS LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE THE SURFACE THROUGH
TUESDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AS BEST DYNAMICS SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE FEAR REGION. THEREFORE EXPECT HEAVIEST RAIN
TO BE TAPERING OFF THROUGH TUES AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT CLOUDS AND
INTERMITTENT PCP TO HOLD ON UNTIL LATE WED AND THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO MAKE ITS WAY IN ON BACK END OF LOW. BY END OF PERIOD PCP WATER
VALUES SHOULD BE DOWN NEAR AN INCH. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS FORECAST
ALMOST IN TACT BUT WILL TAPER OFF POPS THROUGH WED AND CLOUDS
THROUGH LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...DRIER AIR WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY IN EARLY
THURS IN SW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. GFS SHOWS A LITTLE SPIKE
IN PCP WATER LATER ON THURS AS MID TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES A COLD
FRONT THROUGH. OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BUT CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHWR AS SHORTWAVE PASSES LATE THURS. OVERALL EXPECT
SOME CLOUDS ON THURS BUT THEN PLENTY OF DRY AIR MOVING IN WITH
DEEP W-NW FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. PCP WATER VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN
AN INCH BY FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL LSHIFT BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
IN SECONDARY SURGE OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR ON SAT. RIDGE BUILDS
OVER AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PALCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN WARMER SW-W FLOW
ON THURS...UP AROUND 80 DEGREES. TEMPS BEHIND FRONT ON FRI WILL
BE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES AND THEN BACK DOWN TO CLIMO BY SAT IN
NORTHERLY SURGE. EXPECT GREATER DIURNAL SWINGS IN DRIER AIR MASS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY DAY WITH
CLEAR...CALM AND COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS BY EARLY SUN
SHOULD BE DOWN NEAR 50.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE EARLY...BECOMING MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
MONDAY DUE TO TIMING ONSET OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM 00Z TAF SET.
SHOWERS TRYING TO STREAM ONSHORE FROM THE OCEAN ARE ENCOUNTERING
VERY DRY AIR NEAR AND OVER LAND...SO ARE DISSIPATING RAPIDLY DURING
THEIR WESTWARD TRAVELS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL IMPACT
ILM/CRE/MYR...BUT WILL HANDLE THIS WITH AMD/S AS NECESSARY AS THEY
DO NOT WARRANT A TAF PACKAGE MENTION. TIGHTENED PG BETWEEN SLOWLY
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND DEEPENING LOW NEAR FLORIDA
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS VALID PERIOD.
EXPECT E/NE WINDS TO PERSIST AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING ON MONDAY WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS...POSSIBLY HIGHER...LIKELY
AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT CROSS-WIND EFFECTS AT
THE N/S RUNWAYS ON MONDAY.

EXPANSIVE AREA OF RAIN LOCATED OFF THE FL/GA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
WORK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. HAVE SLOWED ONSET OF
RAINFALL SINCE SLIGHT N COMPONENT TO WINDS IS KEEPING THE MID LEVELS
VERY DRY...AND IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING...BUT ONCE RAIN DOES BEGIN IT WILL
RAPIDLY CREATE MVFR...WITH IFR DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. EXPECT BY THE
END OF THIS VALID PERIOD LGT/MDT RAIN WILL BE OCCURRING EVERYWHERE.
PROFILES BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNDER HIGH PWATS...SO IFR APPEARS
LIKELY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING INTO TAFS ATTM UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VFR WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT VFR WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM MONDAY...NE TO E FETCH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
CREATING STEEP WAVES AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY VEER AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENTLY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...AND COULD SEE
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
DIRECTING A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE WATERS. PLAN TO STICK
WITH A STRONG SMALL CRAFT IN LIEU OF A GALE WARNING SINCE SREF 34 KT
PROBS DIMINISH THE FARTHER NORTH THE LOW TREKS WITH TIME. WAVES WILL
PEAK TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AS THE VEERING WINDS DIMINISH
LATE. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS TONIGHT WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...STRONG EASTERLY FETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY TUES BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND AND DIMINISHING ON BACK END OF
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
15 KTS OR LESS OUT OF THE S-SW THROUGH LATE TUES AND WED.

SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTH AND LIGHTEN
TUES THROUGH WED NIGHT. SEAS MAY START OUT NEAR 8 TO 10 FT IN
OUTER WATERS TUES MORNING BUT WILL DROP STEADILY THROUGH TUES
NIGHT FALLING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BY WED.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...S-SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ON THURS MAY
PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY SLIGHTLY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN
WILL VEER AROUND BECOMING OFF SHORE AROUND 15 KTS ONCE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WATERS THURS NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND IN
OFF SHORE WINDS RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 4 FT TO START ON THURSDAY MAY
PICK UP SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BEFORE DROPPING TO LESS THAN
3 FT MOST WATERS BY FRI AFTERNOON IN W-NW FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS IN HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MID WEEK WITH THE
FULL MOON ON TUE. TIDAL DEPARTURES OF NEAR +1 TO +2 FEET WOULD BE
REQUIRED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. BIGGEST CONCERN WOULD
CENTER AROUND ANY HIGH TIDE DURING WHICH HEAVY RAIN IS
ONGOING...WHICH IS MOST LIKELY WITH HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH TIDE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS EVENING WILL BE AROUND
7 PM...AND ON TUE...AROUND 730 AM AND THEN AGAIN AT 8 PM. HIGH
TIDE FOR DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON OCCURS ABOUT 2 HOURS LATER.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...JDW/SRP
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 9, 3:54 PM EDT, 13 hours 2 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

AMZ250-252-254-256-102000-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-102000-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 MPH INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

FREQUENTLY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT
BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE. THE SURF WILL BE ROUGH AND ON THE HIGH
SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOME OF THE BEACHES ON MONDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-099-105-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-102000-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ107-102000-
INLAND NEW HANOVER-
354 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

EASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON MONDAY EVENING
AND TUESDAY MORNING.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WINDS MAY GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

17

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 10, 3:47 PM EDTCoastal Flood AdvisoryILMBrunswick, New Hanover, Pender6 hr
Oct 10, 4:09 PM EDTGale WarningILM18 hr
Oct 10, 4:09 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryILM41 hr

Nearby

High Surf Advisories in North Carolina, 2011High Surf Advisories in South Carolina, 2011Every high surf advisory in 2011

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.