Excessive Heat Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAT MAY
DECREASE SLIGHTLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT
IS POSSIBLE LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...THE 500 MB RIDGE THAT HAS HELPED PRODUCE
EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. OVER THE PAST WEEK
IS NOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MODELS HAVE
STRONG SUPPORT FOR BUILDING THIS AN EXTENSION OF RIDGE BACK
NORTHWESTWARD INTO TENNESSEE TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSING SOUTHWESTERN VA/NORTHWESTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON IS PROBABLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF THE RIDGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEABREEZE AND ALSO ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH AND OTHER MISCELLANEOUS BOUNDARIES INLAND WILL DIE AWAY THIS
EVENING...BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT T-STORM OR
TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE VIRGINIA UPPER DISTURBANCE. IN TERMS OF STEERING
FLOW...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED COOLING THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDICES WILL
REMAIN IN THE 105-115 RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE'LL KEEP THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM.

WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINING OFFSHORE AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WE AGAIN EXPECT A
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LAST NIGHT. 1000
FOOT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WILL HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WELL-MIXED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 75-80 RANGE...WARMEST NEAR THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...ESSENTIALLY THE SAME FORECAST AS THIS TIME YESTERDAY
ALTHOUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD MAY PROVE TO BE A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING. 500MB HEIGHTS VERY GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A STRONGER ALBEIT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION SUNDAY AS THE
LATEST GFS IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN KEEPING POPS OUT WHILE THE NAM
IS MORE BULLISH. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE
FORCING AND WARRANTS HIGHER POPS ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF INCREASING GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AND WILL ISSUE WITH THIS
AFTERNOONS PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY WHILE A FLATTER RIDGE SPRAWLS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. IN BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS WILL BE
LOCATED UNDERNEATH A WEAK TROUGH WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
ACCORDING TO THE GFS OR SIMPLY A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
ACCORDING TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE. THE LATTER IDEA HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE ACCEPTED SOLUTION IMPLYING TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS AND THE AREA-WIDE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE TWO
UPPER ANTICYCLONES WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. ON
WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WANING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
TREND FURTHER ABOVE CLIMO. THE RIDGE THEN SOLIDIFIES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THURSDAY COULD THUS BRING HEAT INDEX
VALUES WORTHY OF AN ADVISORY WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD ONCE
AGAIN APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LEVEL...IF DEWPOINTS END UP
HIGH ENOUGH. UNLIKE THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE WHERE THE UPPER RIDGE IS
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH THE SUPPRESSIVE EFFECTS OF THIS NEXT RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS SUGGESTS A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE PROVIDING A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN IT
AND A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF FLO/LBT. THE TROUGH AND
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY
STORMS WILL ACTUALLY IMPACT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL DUE TO THE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE BEST COVERAGE
SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE VCTS IN COASTAL TAFS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOWERING BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT ILM
19-21Z BASED ON PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCES FOR NOW. BUT
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE MAY HAVE TO AMEND AND DELETE VCTS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS ALTOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE
COASTAL TERMINALS SHOULD BY 21-22Z. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
MORE ISOLATED NEAR FLO/LBT AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE CB IN THOSE
TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY INLAND...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
EACH MORNING AT FLO/LBT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE BEST FORECAST TOOL IN
STAGNANT PATTERNS LIKE THIS. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND
A PIEDMONT TROUGH OVER THE INLAND CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE BIT
STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY...SO WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
TO REACH 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE
NEARSHORE PORTIONS OF THE NC COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE SEABREEZE. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TO ADDRESS
THIS POTENTIAL. ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
JUST A TOUCH WEAKER...15-20 KT...DUE TO A WEAKER GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE BERMUDA HIGH AND THE INLAND TROUGH. 3-4 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH QUITE A BIT OF SHORT PERIOD WIND CHOP MAKING FOR AN
UNCOMFORTABLE RIDE FOR SMALLER BOATS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS EACH NIGHT VIA THE LOW LEVEL JET.
A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15
KNOTS CLOSER TO 15 FOR THE MOST PART. FOR LATE MONDAY A STRONGER LOW
LEVEL JET WARRANTS WINDS CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS. SWAN AS
WELL AS WAVEWATCH SEAS REMAIN CONSISTENT AT 2-4 FEET SUNDAY AND
EARLY MONDAY. THE SPECTRUM RESPONDS TO THE INCREASED WINDS LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH 4-6 FEET AND INTRODUCES THE
POSSIBILITY OF A HEADLINE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2:30 PM SATURDAY...BROAD SWATH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW APPEARS
SLATED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER A
TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL ADD ANY MODIFICATION TO EITHER WIND
SPEED OR DIRECTION THOUGH...PERHAPS VEERING THEM SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY AND ADDING A FEW KNOTS OF SPEED ABOVE CURRENT FCST OF A
GENERAL 10 TO 15. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS INTO WEDNESDAY SPEEDS MAY
DROP 5 KT OR SO AND A BACKING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION MAY
OCCUR...SLIGHTLY DECREASING THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHT GRAD
ESP OFF BRUNSWICK CTY COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC REMAINS IN PLACE BUT STAYS
QUITE WEAK. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST COAST MINIMIZING MIXING (WIND GUSTS) AND TSTM
COVERAGE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ017-
     023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.

NC...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105-107>110.

MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

NCZ087-SCZ024-231845-
ROBESON-DILLON-
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL DILLON COUNTY AFFECTING
SECTIONS OF I-95...

AT 211 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS...3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LITTLE ROCK...OR 4 MILES WEST OF DILLON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. SMALL HAIL AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 95 NORTH OF DILLON. PONDING WATER RESULTING
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL CAN LEAD TO HYDROPLANING...DRIVERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REDUCE SPEED IN THESE AREAS.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS ARE DILLON...HAMER...LITTLE
ROCK...MINTURN...PURVIS...ROWLAND AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...
SMALL HAIL...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT
IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3438 7918 3434 7951 3445 7955 3453 7950
      3460 7925

BACON