Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN CONSISTING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE MAY
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM WEDNESDAY...WEAKLY FORCED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FILL
IN ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS AND MAY EVEN INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
CATEGORICAL...DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE...THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPC CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA IN
SEE TEXT CITING THE LACK OF COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. MAIN
FORECAST DILEMMA REVOLVES AROUND THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GFS AND NAM AS WELL AS THE 0000/05 ECMWF
SHOW THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC
THEN DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. WILL TREND POPS IN THIS
DIRECTION...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE INHERITED
FORECAST. THE ADJUSTED MAV BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS WHICH ARE ON THE
WARM SIDE LOOK GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...JUICY TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODEST AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL S-SW FLOW. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT...NOT
SUPREMELY CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP SO THAT WILL LIMIT POPS
TO HIGH CHANCE. THAT SAID...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER PUSHING 2
INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOTION VECTORS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED PULSE SVR AS WELL...WHICH WARRANTED A SEE
TEXT IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK.

CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DIURNAL TEMP RANGES...WITH MAX TEMPS
RUNNING NEAR CLIMO AND MINS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1:20 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS EARLY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION AND
THE AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE JET LOCATION. ALSO BUMPED POPS UPWARD ON
SUNDAY WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT PERSISTING. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TRENDING LOWER. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO A HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY IMPLYING AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND...
THEN BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY A CATEGORY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING OF RESTRICTIONS IN
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION. TOUGHEST
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING EXACTLY WHEN MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR AT
THE TERMINALS. BASED OFF CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR...BELIEVE THAT ONCE
AGAIN MYR/CRE WILL MISS THE WORST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE SO WILL CONTINUE ONLY VCTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE TEMPO MVFR AT ILM FOR A FEW HOURS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER...AND TEMPO IFR AT THE INLAND TERMINALS WHERE
HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY IN TSTMS. OF COURSE...AMD/S MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AS CONVECTION EVOLVES THIS AFTN. WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE SW AROUND 10 KTS INLAND...BACKED TO THE SOUTH AND GUSTING UP
TO 20 KTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST.

CONVECTION MAY PERSIST WELL AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...BUT EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN
MAY SEE FOG OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF WINDS DECREASE AS MUCH AS
CURRENTLY MODELED...AND HAVE INDICATED MVFR VSBYS INLAND BUT HAVE
TIME TO GET MORE SPECIFIC WITH THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER UPDATES.
SIMILAR AVIATION WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE AFTN AND SW WINDS BECOMING S WITH THE
SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TEMPO
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. DECREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ON
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1:20 PM WEDNESDAY...TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. EXPECT SOUTHEAST FLOW TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS THE
SEA BREEZE DIMINISHES. WAVEWATCH SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG ON A SWELL
COMPONENT EMANATING FROM THE BAHAMAS VIA CURRENT WAVE SPECTRUM PLOTS
ON 41013. WILL KEEP 2-4 FEET IN THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
PLAYER...MAINTAINING A S-SW WIND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST.
SEABREEZE PROCESSES WILL CAUSE DIURNAL OSCILLATIONS IN WIND SPEED
AND DIRECTION...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONGER THAN 15 KT.
SEMI-PERMANENT 9-SEC SE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE
DUE TO THE OPEN SE FETCH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING MORE THAN 3-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1:20 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH WEAK TROUGH INLAND. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EXPECT WEAK SE SWELLS TO BE DOMINATED BY WIND WAVES MOST OF
THE TIME. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST TO AROUND 2 FT
NEAR SHORE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...SRP
AVIATION...JDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
946 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NCZ096-071400-
BLADEN-
946 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AIR QUALITY MAY BECOME UNHEALTHY AT TIMES DUE TO THE SMOKE
FROM THE SIMMONS ROAD FIRE. A CODE RED AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FOR
FINE PARTICULATES FROM THIS FIRE IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF BLADEN COUNTY.

IN ADDITION...REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWNWIND FROM THIS FIRE CAN BE
EXPECTED. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ105-106-071400-
INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER-
946 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AIR QUALITY MAY BECOME UNHEALTHY AT TIMES DUE TO THE SMOKE
FROM THE FIRE BURNING IN THE HOLLY SHELTER GAME LAND. A CODE RED
AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FOR FINE PARTICULATES FROM THIS FIRE IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

IN ADDITION...REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWNWIND FROM THIS FIRE CAN BE
EXPECTED. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS.
ESPECIALLY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ054-071400-
COASTAL HORRY-
946 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SMOKE FROM THE HORNET WILDFIRE COULD LESSEN THE AIR QUALITY
AND VISIBILITY DOWNWIND FROM THIS FIRE. PAY ATTENTION TO CHANGING
WIND DIRECTIONS SUCH AS THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-099-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-071400-
ROBESON-COLUMBUS-INLAND NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-
DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-
INLAND GEORGETOWN-
946 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ108-110-SCZ056-071400-
COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
946 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-071400-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
946 AM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLOODING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THOSE TYPICAL FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

NCZ099-109-SCZ053-054-061800-
COLUMBUS-INLAND BRUNSWICK-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS HORRY AND COLUMBUS
COUNTIES...

AT 1245 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS STRENGTHENING ACROSS HORRY AND COLUMBUS COUNTIES. A
STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CONWAY...AND IT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA BETWEEN HAMMOND AND ADRIAN. ANOTHER STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM
WAS LOCATED BETWEEN TABOR CITY AND SIDNEY...AND IT WILL AFFECT THE
AREA FROM TABOR CITY TO WHITEVILLE. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA THROUGH 2 PM AS THEY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3443 7881 3440 7854 3425 7824 3367 7897
      3382 7916

SRP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
126 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

SCZ032-033-061830-
MARION-FLORENCE-
126 PM EDT WED JUL 6 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FLORENCE COUNTY...

AT 125 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COWARD AND SCRANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORENCE AND
MARION COUNTIES FROM FRIENDFIELD...EVERGREEN...HYMAN TO MARION AND
BLUE BRICK THROUGH 230 PM EDT.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH...LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THUNDERSTORMS CAN POSE A VARIETY OF THREATS INCLUDING GUSTY
WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR
UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILM.

LAT...LON 3411 7975 3425 7961 3423 7913 3417 7919
      3404 7927 3403 7931 3400 7931 3400 7933
      3396 7934 3394 7932 3389 7934 3378 7945
      3392 7990

SRP