Severe Thunderstorm Warning 394, NWS Wichita, KS

816 
WWUS53 KICT 100106
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
806 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSC167-100200-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0394.000000T0000Z-110810T0200Z/
RUSSELL KS-
806 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARADISE...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUSSELL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSSELL...GORHAM...LURAY...BUNKER HILL...LUCAS...DORRANCE...
  WALDO...RUSSELL AIRPORT...MILBERGER AND WILSON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9904 3905 9905 3913 9904 3914 9903
      3914 9872 3912 9850 3870 9850 3870 9902
      3876 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 303DEG 42KT 3901 9900
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

ES

907 
WWUS53 KICT 100116
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
816 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSC167-100200-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0394.000000T0000Z-110810T0200Z/
RUSSELL KS-
816 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 815 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
RUSSELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSSELL...LURAY...BUNKER HILL...DORRANCE...LUCAS...WALDO...RUSSELL
  AIRPORT AND WILSON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9904 3905 9905 3913 9904 3914 9903
      3914 9872 3912 9850 3870 9850 3870 9902
      3876 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 279DEG 17KT 3892 9887
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

LAWSON

440 
WWUS53 KICT 100124
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
824 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSC167-100200-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0394.000000T0000Z-110810T0200Z/
RUSSELL KS-
824 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 819 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP
TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSSELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BUNKER HILL...LUCAS...DORRANCE AND WILSON LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN WICHITA.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9904 3905 9905 3913 9904 3914 9903
      3914 9872 3912 9850 3870 9850 3870 9902
      3876 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 298DEG 24KT 3888 9880
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 2.50IN

$$

LAWSON

731 
WWUS53 KICT 100134
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
834 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSC167-100200-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0394.000000T0000Z-110810T0200Z/
RUSSELL KS-
834 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 829 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP
TO TENNIS BALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUNKER HILL...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RUSSELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DORRANCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3884 9904 3905 9905 3913 9904 3914 9903
      3914 9872 3912 9850 3870 9850 3870 9902
      3876 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 316DEG 30KT 3880 9873
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 2.50IN

$$

LAWSON

335 
WWUS53 KICT 100200
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSC167-100210-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0394.000000T0000Z-110810T0200Z/
RUSSELL KS-
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR RUSSELL COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3884 9904 3905 9905 3913 9904 3914 9903
      3914 9872 3912 9850 3870 9850 3870 9902
      3876 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 316DEG 30KT 3880 9873

$$

LAWSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
627 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

.UPDATE...

WEAKED GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS SOONER. STORMS ALREADY GOING IN
NORTHWEST KS AND SIMPLE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT THEM ENTERING
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA AROUND 0100 UTC. HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE THE RIGHT IDEA...ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 2 HOURS
AHEAD OF ITS SCHEDULE. MORE UPDATES PROBABLE AFTER PERUSING 0000
UTC DATA. OF NOTE...RUC/NAM AND TO LESSER EXTENT GFS APPEAR TO
HAVE BOGUS DRY 850MB BULLSEYE OVER FORECAST AREA OUT OF THE BOX
WHICH LIKELY AFFECTED THEIR SUBSEQUENT FORECAST OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE AREA. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS EVIDENT WITH EXPANDING ALTOCUMULUS CASTELLANUS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MODELS OF LIMITED USE SO FAR...WITH HRRR ONLY MODEL CLOSE TO
ADDRESSING ONGOING CONVECTION. HAVE USED CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH
STORMS CONTINUE TO TRACK DOWN BAROCLINIC ZONE. SUSPECT AFTER VERY
BRIEF LULL...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW ADDITION
RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BEHIND MCS AND THESE COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WED. WILL TREND FOR A BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE END OF FORECAST. UNCERTAIN ON
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING. IF
PRECIPITATION IS WIDESPREAD...COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA. -HOWERTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND TRENDS
TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

SYNOPSIS:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY HAVE A NUMBER OF WAVES AFFECTING THE
CONUS. ONE IS SLIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. MEANWHILE ANOTHER PIECE OF
ENERGY IS EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS MOVING OUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER NORTHEAST CO WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

TONIGHT-WED:
STORMS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOPED OVER SW NEBRASKA ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS IS ALSO IN AN AREA OF STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
SW NEBRASKA/NW KS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE
310-315K LAYERS RAPIDLY INCREASES. IT IS LIKELY BY 03Z THERE WILL BE
A LARGE MCS TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS. EVEN THOUGH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOT THAT GREAT...UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID AND
UPPER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS GOING TO BE THE
TRACK OF THIS MCS AND RIGHT NOW AM KEEPING WITH THE THINKING THAT
THE NE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE WITH ICT ON THE SW FRINGES. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM ARE ALSO HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 09Z FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 400 AS STRONG INSTABILITY SURGES
INTO THE AREA. FEEL THE BEST THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE WITH
THIS SECONDARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF MORE INSTABILITY.

BY SUNRISE WED THIS MCS WILL BE ONGOING OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS WITH AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED AS THE AFTERNOON HOURS
APPROACH.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY FOR WED WILL BE THE COOL MAXES. HIGHS ON WED
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST HIGHS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN OVER TWO
MONTHS.

WED NIGHT-FRI NIGHT:
SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS SE KS WED NIGHT AS SOME
WEAK 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. BY THU AFTERNOON THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE
SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MO AS MOISTURE STARTS TO WORK BACK ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. WITH SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA AND THE BEST
RETURN MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK OUT POPS
DURING THE DAY THU. 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL GET CRANKED UP THU NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SCT CONVECTION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOR THE FRI-FRI NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THIS IS WHEN BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM ARE FORECASTING STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DIVE OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE
DAY FRI.

SAT-TUE:
THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PULL DOWN SOME MORE COOLER AIR WHICH WILL
SETUP A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. A SLOW WARMUP WILL OCCUR AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOTHING LIKE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR MUCH OF
THE SUMMER. PRECIP WILL ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUN NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST...GETTING US BACK INTO A WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN.

LAWSON

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
EVENING. BY LATE EVENING...A COMPLEX OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS...LIKELY
AFFECTING KRSL-KSLN BY 04-07Z...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 850-700MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...WILL THEN LIKELY AFFECT KHUT-KICT-KCNU
AFTER 07-08Z. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL
AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD LINGER WELL PAST DAYBREAK.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  81  65  84 /  60  50  20  10
HUTCHINSON      67  78  64  84 /  70  50  20  10
NEWTON          66  77  63  84 /  80  60  20  10
ELDORADO        66  80  63  84 /  70  60  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  85  66  85 /  50  50  30  10
RUSSELL         64  75  62  83 /  70  40  10  10
GREAT BEND      65  77  63  84 /  50  40  10  10
SALINA          66  75  63  83 /  80  50  10  10
MCPHERSON       66  77  63  84 /  80  60  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     70  84  66  84 /  50  70  40  10
CHANUTE         67  79  63  84 /  50  80  40  10
IOLA            66  76  62  83 /  40  80  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    69  82  65  84 /  50  70  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
344 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-101000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
344 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE WINDS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REENTER THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT OCCUR THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER ANY REPORTS
OF HAIL OR HIGH WINDS TONIGHT WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

BILLINGS/LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
739 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

KSZ032-100115-
RUSSELL-
739 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 737 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GORHAM...OR 12 MILES WEST OF RUSSELL...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORM MAINTAINS
INTENSITY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE
WEATHER THREATENS.

ES