Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Wichita, KS

131 
WWUS53 KICT 040025
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSC115-040100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110404T0100Z/
MARION KS-
725 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
MARION COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 722 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LINCOLNVILLE...OR 16 MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9691 3854 9692 3852 9690 3852 9683
      3851 9681 3840 9681 3831 9683 3828 9736
      3860 9736 3860 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 236DEG 49KT 3860 9698
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

BILLINGS

268 
WWUS53 KICT 040035
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSC115-040100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110404T0100Z/
MARION KS-
735 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
MARION COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 731 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HERINGTON...OR 21 MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 7:29PM HEN EGG SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED LINCOLNVILLE 
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9691 3854 9692 3852 9690 3852 9683
      3851 9681 3840 9681 3831 9683 3828 9736
      3860 9736 3860 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 236DEG 49KT 3867 9684
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.75IN

$$

BILLINGS

351 
WWUS53 KICT 040048
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
748 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSC115-040100-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-110404T0100Z/
MARION KS-
748 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN
MARION COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 745 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED...PRODUCING 
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO HEN EGG SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LINCOLNVILLE...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLNVILLE AND LOST SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9691 3854 9692 3852 9690 3852 9683
      3851 9681 3840 9681 3831 9683 3828 9736
      3860 9736 3860 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 260DEG 35KT 3844 9697
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 2.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
608 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH HUT RIGHT AROUND START
OF TAF VALID PERIOD...AND SHOULD REACH ICT AROUND 0230Z...AND CNU
AROUND 04Z. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT OWING TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND PRESSURE RISES. SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 KT EXPECTED THIS EVE BEHIND
FRONT MAINLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT FROM EAST CENTRAL THRU NORTHEAST KS EARLY THIS
EVE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM INTO A LINE AND MOVE SWD ACROSS
SERN KS LATER THIS EVE. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO TS GROUP AT CNU TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
WEST INTO S-CNTRL KS TO INCLUDE THUNDER MENTION AT HUT AND ICT BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. GUSTY NWRLY WINDS WILL PERSIST MONDAY
AREA WIDE.

JMC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT:
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 01-03Z ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE SBCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ARE PROGGED. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BACK EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS SHOULD RACE EASTWARD AND CLEAR
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA/LARGE
3-6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ARE PROGGED.

MCGUIRE

MONDAY-THURSDAY:
MONDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AND COOLER WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS COULD FLIRT WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME IN THE PM.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 30-35 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS
AFTERNOONS SO IT WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
TUESDAY ALONG WITH LEE TROFFING WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. UPPER
TROFFING WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN KS/NORTHWESTERN OK BEFORE STALLING WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
AS A WARM FRONT AS A SHORTAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
KS/OK. AS MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY GETS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
OUR AREA...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS
FURTHER NORTH AND MAINLY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
PERIOD...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN
OK FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHWARD SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS OUT. BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH
CONTINUITY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS OF LATE. THERE WILL BE SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION TIMING/PLACEMENT IS LOW THIS FAR OUT
GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS. TEMPERATURES
LOOK ABOVE NORMAL.

JMC

FIRE WEATHER...
WE EXPECT EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER/RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM A COMBINATION OF STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS...CURED GRASSLAND...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR I-70 AT 6 PM CDT...WITH
THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD TO A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO WICHITA...TO
CASSODAY BY 10 PM. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE CLEARING FAR SOUTHEAST KS
BY 2 AM. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...WITH SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-35 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. THE HIGHER SPEEDS WILL BE IN CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS TONIGHT.

JMC

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITHIN
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING IMPACTING AREA TAF SITES THROUGH
AROUND 06Z BEFORE WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN. WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURGING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND MAY IMPACT KCNU BETWEEN 05-07Z.
PROBABILITIES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH REMAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    43  56  33  71 /  30  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  55  32  72 /  50  10   0   0
NEWTON          41  54  31  71 /  60  10   0   0
ELDORADO        44  56  32  70 /  60  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  58  33  70 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELL         37  54  30  73 /  30  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      37  54  29  73 /  20  10   0   0
SALINA          39  54  32  71 /  30  10   0   0
MCPHERSON       39  54  31  72 /  50  10   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  59  33  70 /  70  20   0   0
CHANUTE         47  55  31  68 /  80  20   0   0
IOLA            47  54  31  68 /  80  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    46  57  32  68 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-068>072-
093>096-098>100.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-
067.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ082-083-091-092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
521 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-042230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
521 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MID
TO LATE EVENING ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO A SQUALL LINE. THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS TO BE IMPACTED WOULD BE EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO
NEWTON TO ARKANSAS CITY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS BY 2 AM.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REMAIN IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AREA
WIDE.

TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO NEAR FREEZING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY ON TUESDAY.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEMS DURING THIS PERIOD...SO IT
IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER ANY OF THE STORMS WOULD BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...EAST
OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO NEWTON TO ARKANSAS CITY.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

KSZ052-040045-
MARION-
710 PM CDT SUN APR 3 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARION COUNTY...

AT 708 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DURHAM...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PEARCE