Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
329 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND THEN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURES.

SYNOPSIS:
A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.  ALONG THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...A FEW
WEAKER DISTURBANCES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL
HELP GIVE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  AT
THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER SALINA DRAPING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
PRATT AT 3PM.  SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS
THE AREA EARLIER TODAY...BUT THEY DIMINISHED LEAVING SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KANSAS.  NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WHILE BEHIND
THE FRONT 80S ARE WIDESPREAD.

TONIGHT - EARLY FRIDAY:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.  WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
AND PLENTIFUL CAPE (~2000 J/KG) AND SHEAR (~50 KTS).  THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 22-01Z.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THIS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES...AND THERE IS A HINT THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY:
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS DURING
THE FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME RELIEF TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE TEMPERATURES IS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN COOLER.  BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...MOVING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
AREA WITH IT.

BY SATURDAY THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK TO THE NORTH OVER WESTERN
KANSAS.  THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST.  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
HOURS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTERACTS WITH THE BOUNDARY.  THIS AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY - THURSDAY:
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY...AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN
SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT THEN SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH BY MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY.  THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS BY MID WEEK...BUT THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF HAS COME INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS.  THIS SHOWS A WAVE MOVING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH.  THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE REGION...AND HAVE KEPT MUCH
OF THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME.

BILLINGS

&&
KCNU
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A
FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR KDDC-KSLN. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN 22Z AND 00Z. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE EAST AS THE FRONT STARTS TO HEAD THAT WAY THIS
EVENING. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LARGE HIGH WIND THREAT
WITH STORMS THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FRIDAY MORNING...AROUND 15Z...AND
EXTEND ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
FRONT...CIGS WILL BE VFR...WHICH WILL INCLUDE KRSL. LIKELIHOOD OF
THIS AT KHUT AND KRSL IS LOWER. MORE STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING.

COOK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  87  65  82 /  40  20  30  50
HUTCHINSON      63  85  62  79 /  40  20  20  40
NEWTON          65  84  62  79 /  40  30  20  40
ELDORADO        65  86  64  81 /  40  30  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  92  66  84 /  40  20  30  50
RUSSELL         56  79  58  78 /  30  20  10  30
GREAT BEND      58  82  59  79 /  30  20  10  40
SALINA          61  80  60  79 /  40  30  10  20
MCPHERSON       62  83  62  79 /  40  20  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     70  90  68  85 /  40  30  40  40
CHANUTE         69  89  66  81 /  40  40  40  30
IOLA            68  86  65  80 /  40  40  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    70  90  67  83 /  40  30  40  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-102100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
351 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A STALLED FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR PRATT TO SALINA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STORMS...THOUGH MOVING NORTHEAST...WILL
GRADUALLY REACH THE FLINT HILLS TONIGHT.

LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG
OR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
RETURNING FOR THURSDAY.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF CHANUTE TO
SEDAN LINE AND EAST OF A SALINA TO SYLVIA LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

BILLINGS/COOK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
718 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HAIL             1 W CHENEY              37.63N 97.80W
06/09/2011  E1.25 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             1 W CHENEY              37.63N 97.80W
06/09/2011  E1.00 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON 23RD STREET SOUTH 1 INCH HAIL COVERING THE HAIL.

&&

JMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
732 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW PARK CITY         37.78N 97.37W
06/09/2011  E60 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
735 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW PARK CITY         37.78N 97.37W
06/09/2011  E70 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED
            ESTIMATED WINDS OF AT LEAST 70 MPH.

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
738 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S PARK CITY           37.77N 97.32W
06/09/2011  E70 MPH          SEDGWICK           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
739 PM CDT THU JUN 09 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             3 W GARDEN PLAIN        37.66N 97.74W
06/09/2011  E1.25 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGS