Heat Advisory 6, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION THRU THE
WEEKEND AND PRECIP/CONVECTIVE CHANCES THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST.

TONIGHT:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MOISTURE CHANNEL EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN NM ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN MO. FROM THE CONVECTION
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES ARE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HIT AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST
CHANCES HOWEVER SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF AN ARKANSAS CITY TO
CHANUTE LINE...THEN IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE STORMS IN WESTERN NE
COULD BACK BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST 2 DAYS OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR A FEW DAYS AT LEAST.
SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD
ALONG A HUTCHINSON TO IOLA LINE. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ONLY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THEN WITH HIGHS IN THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ANS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS WILL EXTEND INTO
SUNDAY BUT MONDAY SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL. CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF DROP THRU THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. INCREASING WESTERLIES
ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH THE PRE-EXISTING MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN
THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY WITH A TROF DOMINATING THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THE TRAILING FRONT FROM THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS TO NEAR THE RED RIVER
WHERE THEY WILL MEANDER THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEAKEN
UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. ALONG AND NORTH OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED MAINLY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION THE TROF WILL CAUSE
THE UPPER RIDGE TO RETROGRADE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST RESULTING IN
MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA.

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
FROM THE EARLIER STORMS HAVE SETUP A BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
NEAR PONCA CITY TO NEAR PITTSBURG. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THEY WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE KICT AND KCNU TAF SITES. TOWARD 02Z THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MOST AREAS AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76 103  76 103 /  20  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      74 102  74 101 /  20  20  40  30
NEWTON          75 102  74 101 /  20  20  40  30
ELDORADO        75 103  74 101 /  20  20  40  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   77 105  78 105 /  30  20  20  20
RUSSELL         72  97  70  92 /  30  30  40  30
GREAT BEND      73 100  71  95 /  20  30  40  30
SALINA          74  98  72  94 /  20  20  40  30
MCPHERSON       74 101  73  99 /  20  20  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     78 104  77 104 /  30  20  30  30
CHANUTE         76 100  75 100 /  30  20  40  30
IOLA            75 100  74  99 /  30  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    77 104  76 103 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ067-
068.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ048>053.

&&

ELDER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
719 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-071230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
719 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING OR HEAT ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH
MONDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR DETAILS.

PERIODIC BOUTS OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL AFFECT THE REGION INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/ADK