Areal Flood Warning 39, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..AVIATION...00Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST IMPACTING KCNU AFTER 02-03Z
AND POSSIBLY KICT AROUND 02Z BUT THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE KICT TERMINAL. A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WHERE
RAINFALL IS OBSERVED IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

MWM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

PRECIPITATION:

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL
KS...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWEST FROM THERE...AND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION TRAILING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

AT LEAST SOMEWHAT ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...ALONG/NORTH OF SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE MORE
ROBUST CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FURTHER WEST THOUGH...THINKING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OVER
WEST-CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER PRIMARILY
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...ALONG DECENT INSTABILITY GRADIENT SETTING UP.
OTHER THAN SOME POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION...THINKING CENTRAL KS
MAY BE DONE WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY...EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AIRMASS IS PRETTY "WORKED OVER" FROM
EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM NW. BEST SEVERE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND FAR SOUTHERN KS DUE TO VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL STILL
PROMOTE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN OK THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS/COLD POOLS MERGE.

PER GFS/ECMWF...THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ROUNDS CREST OF
SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE. BOTH MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN KS INTO NE...WITH CHANCES DECREASING SOME
FURTHER SOUTH. DEVELOPMENT OF NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE CHANCES THIS FAR OUT
IS TOUGH...SO WILL ONLY BROAD BRUSH POPS FOR NOW. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE FAVORED LATE AFTERNOON...OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES:

SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED THIS
WEEKEND IN WAKE OF THIS EVENING'S SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BUILDING RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT WARMING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY-MONDAY. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AT LEAST MID TO LATE WEEK...AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRAGS MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES WITH GFS/ECMWF AT
THIS POINT.

ADK

AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

A RATHER COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST WITH A FAIRLY POTENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH TO NEAR KHUT AND KICT AT THIS
TIME...WITH SOME POST FRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST TO THE
NORTH OF IT. WENT AHEAD AND SHIFTED KICT WIND DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THIS OUTFLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CITY WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A TEMPO -TSRA CHANCE FOR KICT/KHUT AS
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE. COULD ALSO SEE OUTFLOW IMPACT
KCNU IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS IN THIS AREA
WITH AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT HERE AS WELL.

COMPLICATED PART OF THE FORECAST INVOLVES HOW THIS BOUNDARY WILL
IMPACT CHANCE OF RENEWED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH RENEWED CONVECTION POSSIBLE TO THE NW OF KHUT
BY AROUND 23Z WHERE OUTFLOW WILL FORM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR MAIN
SYNOPTIC FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE KHUT/KICT TAFS FROM
23Z TO 02Z/SAT. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLE MVFR
CEILINGS NEAR ANY STRONG/SEVERE TSRA THAT MOVES IN...SO FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANOTHER TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS CHANCE NEAR
KHUT/KICT. NOT SURE OF THE TIMING OF THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO KCNU...SO WILL ONLY GO WITH A VCTS FOR NOW.

SUSPECT COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW/BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME MVFR CLOUDS ACROSS CEN KS AFTER 06Z/SAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    69  91  65  89 /  70  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      68  90  65  89 /  50  10  10  10
NEWTON          68  90  64  89 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        69  91  64  88 /  60  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  92  66  90 /  80  10  10  10
RUSSELL         65  88  64  88 /  20  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      66  89  65  89 /  30  10  10  10
SALINA          67  89  63  88 /  20  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       68  89  64  89 /  30  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     71  92  65  88 /  80  10   0   0
CHANUTE         70  90  63  87 /  60  10   0   0
IOLA            70  90  63  86 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    71  91  65  87 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132100-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
351 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING OVER PRIMARILY SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL LIKELY BE GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
GREAT BEND TO HUTCHINSON...TO EL DORADO TO SEDAN. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN 70 MPH. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE
LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...WITH
THESE CHANCES CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING SPECIFICS...PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND
TO HUTCHINSON...TO EL DORADO TO SEDAN.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

EPS/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
852 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N EL DORADO           37.94N 96.86W
08/12/2011  E60 MPH          BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
854 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N EL DORADO           37.91N 96.86W
08/12/2011  E60 MPH          BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>