Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY HAVE A SMALL BUT STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKING OVER
NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. STORMS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE THIS MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 3-4PM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SE KS HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE SOME STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING SOME LOWER CIGS IN THEIR
WAKE. AT THIS TIME HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KRSL WILL SEE CIGS
DROP TO BELOW IFR LEVELS WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. LEE
TROUGHING WILL GET CRANKED UP ON SUN WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW
WINDS AREA WIDE.

LAWSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
SCT SHRA & ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPED OVER PRIMARILY SE KS EARLY THIS
MORNING ALONG DEVELOPING ELEVATED WARM FRONT SITUATED IN A W-E MANNER
OVER SC & SE KS. FRONT TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING...HOWEVER INCREASING
WARM MOIST ADVECTION TO INDUCE SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA TO GREATLY INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO EQUALLY INCREASING (& THEREFORE DEEPENING) ISENTROPIC
ASCENT OVER ALL OF KS. AS SUCH CIGS & VSBYS TO DETERIORATE INTO MVFR
STATUS 19/18Z-19/20Z WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. (ESPECIALLY OVER SC KS & MUCH OF CNTRL KS...PRIMARILY KSLN
WHERE BETTER ALIGNED WITH GREATEST LWR-DECK MOIST ADVECTION). OUTLOOK
FROM 19/21Z ONWARD IS BLEAK AS WARM ADVECTION IN 15,000-2,000FT LAYER
INDUCES SHARPENING INVERSION THAT'LL LIKELY KEEP MOST TERMINALS IFR
STRATIFIED THROUGH 20/06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT...AND FIRE DANGER SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

TODAY-TONIGHT:
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH
DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOST
UNSTABLE CAPES OF UP TO 1,000 J/KG...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND UPDRAFT LAYER SPEED SHEAR SUGGEST SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER
SIZE. GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES...CLOUDS AND
RAIN...OUR DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN NORMAL.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED BUT LESSER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS THIS
EVENING NORTH OF THE DIFFUSE RETREATING WARM FRONT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY:
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY WITH A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS SHOW OUR AREA IN A CAPPED WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL KS
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING...THEN RETREATING BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY WARM 800 MB TEMPERATURES
OF +15 TO +17 C...WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE DURING THE PERIOD.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
THE UPPER TROF IN THE WEST WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY EAST OF THE DRYLINE PASSAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE BEHIND DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROF IS
PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO A POLAR VORTEX OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR
DOWN HERE BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN TO
THE PICTURE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING AN ISENTROPIC LIFT PATTERN DEVELOPING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF FASTER.

JMC

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...THEN LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
NEEDED BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY FORECAST CHANGES CLOSELY.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD OF BIGGEST CONCERN BEHIND
THE DRYLINE IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  53  78  56 /  80  30  10  10
HUTCHINSON      56  51  78  54 /  80  30  10  10
NEWTON          56  52  77  55 /  80  40  10  10
ELDORADO        56  53  77  56 /  80  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  54  77  57 /  80  30  10  10
RUSSELL         56  50  80  50 /  50  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      56  50  80  50 /  60  30  10  10
SALINA          56  51  78  53 /  70  40  10  10
MCPHERSON       56  51  78  54 /  80  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  56  78  58 /  70  30  10  10
CHANUTE         56  54  76  57 /  80  50  10  10
IOLA            55  53  76  57 /  80  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    58  55  77  58 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
945 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201445-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
945 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH A LESSER
CHANCE OF STORMS TONIGHT. THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL
OF QUARTER SIZE OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY IN SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE.

GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
CREATE VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

KSZ094-098-191730-
CHAUTAUQUA-ELK-
1150 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND ELK COUNTIES...

AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SEDAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

KSZ096-191730-
NEOSHO-
1151 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEOSHO COUNTY...

AT 1147 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR THAYER...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
CHANUTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

KSZ099-191800-
MONTGOMERY-
1216 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

AT 1215 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEARING...OR NEAR COFFEYVILLE...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     HAIL             1 W COFFEYVILLE         37.04N 95.65W
03/19/2011  E0.88 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

KSZ100-191815-
LABETTE-
1236 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LABETTE COUNTY...

AT 1233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COFFEYVILLE...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

JAKUB

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