Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC ANALYSIS INDICATE THE QUASI
STAGNANT PATTERN OF RIDGING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX CONTINUES. AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND CLOSE TO HOME...A DECAYING MCS IS
VERY SLOWLY SLIDING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA.
CONVECTION IS JUST BEGINNING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWFA ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLIER MCS ACROSS
MISSOURI. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
LINGER ALONG THE TN/AL LINE...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE
POOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA.

GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...AND HIGH INSTABILITY IN THE WEST WHERE EARLY AFTERNOON
CLEARING ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY JUMP INTO THE 90S...EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE
SURFACE LAYER SHOULD BECOME STABLE OVERNIGHT...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL PERSIST. GIVEN THE TYPICALLY UNSETTLED NATURE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PROGGED WESTWARD MOTION OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE
REMOVED BY THE EVENING SHIFT. GIVEN THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT COUPLED WITH EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE...LOOK
FOR FAIRLY MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S.

FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA TO SPARK
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...WHICH
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO. STRONG STORMS MAY
EXIST TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE
MAIN THREATS. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWFA...POTENTIAL CLOUD COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIMITS
CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS FAIRLY
DEEP AFTERNOON MIXING...AND ITS CORRESPONDING MOS SUGGESTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS FOR MANY AREAS. HOWEVER...DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL REALIZE THIS KIND OF HEATING OR MIXING...SO WAS MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPERATURES /IN THE MID 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS/.
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH IF MODELS CAN OFFER A GREATER CONSENSUS
ON A WARM SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW...THE MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE CWFA.

THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRANSLATE EASTWARD FRIDAY EVENING AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH...LEAVING WARM TEMPERATURES
AND PATCHY FOG...BEFORE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS A H85 TROUGH SKIRTS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE QUITE MOISTURE RICH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PWATS PROGGED OVER
2.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
IN THIS ATMOSPHERE WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AN UNSETTLED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE H5 RIDGE
RETROGRADES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC
TRIGGER. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    75  96  76  95  76 /  20  50  30  50  30
SHOALS        76  96  75  97  75 /  20  50  20  50  20
VINEMONT      73  95  74  93  74 /  20  50  30  50  30
FAYETTEVILLE  74  95  75  94  75 /  20  40  30  50  30
ALBERTVILLE   72  95  74  93  72 /  20  50  30  50  30
FORT PAYNE    71  95  73  94  72 /  20  40  30  50  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-051000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1030 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE MAJORITY OF STORMS.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...
WITH GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES POSSIBLY WARRANTING HEAT
ADVISORIES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE TODAY...AND STORM REPORTS ARE ALWAYS GREATLY APPRECIATED.

DD/JLL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ALZ003-042145-
FRANKLIN-
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

AT 402 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HACKLEBURG...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DEMPSEY.
  ROCKWOOD.
  ATWOOD.
  DUKETON.
  PHIL CAMPBELL
  SPRUCE PINE.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3441 8810 3449 8799 3453 8786 3456 8768
      3430 8754 3432 8817 3437 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 345DEG 29KT 3419 8781

KTW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ALZ001-002-004-042130-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
403 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLBERT...LAUDERDALE AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 403 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORD CITY...OR 7 MILES EAST OF FLORENCE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LEIGHTON.
  TOWN CREEK...WHITEOAK.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8729 3462 8755 3481 8766 3489 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 327DEG 15KT 3479 8754

KDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
417 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ALZ016-042200-
CULLMAN-
417 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BATTLEGROUND...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HARTSELLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  JONES CHAPEL.
  BALDWIN.
  LOGAN.
  CRANE HILL...GOOD HOPE.
  BREMEN.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 8715 3400 8712 3430 8711 3431 8691
      3400 8680 3396 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 343DEG 26KT 3425 8706

KTW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
447 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

ALZ002-042230-
COLBERT-
447 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLBERT COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM
CDT...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORD CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...

  FORD CITY.
  LEIGHTON.
  WHITEOAK...SPRING VALLEY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8749 3470 8744 3465 8744 3465 8748
      3460 8751 3462 8771 3480 8762 3481 8759
      3482 8759 3483 8755 3483 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 006DEG 14KT 3479 8755

KTW