Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
642 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 28/12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO PUSH ESEWD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT LEADING EDGE OF TSRA TO IMPACT MSL/HSV BTWN
28/12-13Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS FORECAST AS
PREVAILING CONDITION. ALTHOUGH TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
28/13Z...WILL MAINTAIN VCTS/CB AS BACK EDGE OF MCS SHOULD STILL BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO TERMINALS. AS DEBRIS CLOUDS DIMINISH AND COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SCT TSRA TO
IMPACT TERMINALS BTWN 28/16Z-29/01Z. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
PUSH THRU MSL AROUND 29/00Z AND HSV AROUND 29/01Z...ACCOMPANIED BY
BKN MVFR STRATUS DECK AT FL025...WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT NNE AND
CONTINUING THREAT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHRA. IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
GROUND MOISTURE...CLEARING SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 29/06Z...AND HAVE INCLUDED 4SM/BR AS
PREVAILING VSBY AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011/

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH TO
NEAR PADUCAH AND WESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO FIRE IN WESTERN KY/TN WITH SUPPORT FROM THE WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SHORTWAVES ALOFT. THE 500MB SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND DRIFT TO THE SE WITH A SMALL LOBE OF
VORT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA AND TSRA TO THE TN VALLEY
LATER TODAY. WHILE SOME SHOWERS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FAR
WESTERN CWA...MORE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO THE CWA ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY...AS CAPE VALUES PUSH
THE 2000 J/KG MARK AND STEEP ML LAPSE RATES ALLOW A GOOD PORTION OF
THAT CAPE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE. PWAT VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GET TO NEAR 2 INCHES SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...BESIDES THE HAIL AND
WIND THREAT FROM STANDARD SUMMER TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

EVEN WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...HEAT WILL
STILL BE A CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK...SO APPARENT T VALUES WILL BE PUSHING 100 FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 105.

MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALLOW NW FLOW AFTER THE
FROPA TO COOL THINGS DOWN ACROSS THE REGION EVER SO SLIGHTLY. AFTER A
SHORT COOLER PERIOD FOR MID WEEK (HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S FOR WED)...THE
AREA WILL SEE A SLOW RISE IN TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 100 BY THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD. COMBINED WITH TDS CLIMBING
BACK TO NEAR 70 DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE WEEKEND (MAINLY IN
THE WESTERN CWA).

AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AGAIN LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES/SMALL VORT LOBES TO REACH
THE CWA. ATTM KEPT POP CHANCES OUT OF THE FCST FOR SATURDAY. LL
MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE SLOW AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS AGAIN SEEN OVER N AL. BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD UNFORTUNATELY BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

TN...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...70/DD
PREV DISCUSSION...CCC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
427 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-281815-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
427 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. THIS INITIAL LINE
OF STORMS WILL MOVE GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND MAY CLEAR THE
AREA BY LATE MORNING.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSS THE AREA. THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

KDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
656 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

ALZ001-004>006-281245-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-
656 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE
AND MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 655 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ELKTON TO IRON
CITY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  LEXINGTON...LESTER.
  MT ROZELL...LEGGTOWN.
  ELKWOOD...WHITEHEAD.
  ELGIN...CENTER STAR.
  TONEY...ROGERSVILLE.
  ATHENS...HUNTSVILLE.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TUESDAY
FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8698 3500 8673 3464 8647 3461 8696
      3469 8710 3460 8711 3458 8736 3470 8744
      3479 8742 3483 8754 3501 8768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1155Z 329DEG 27KT 3503 8687 3499 8754

KDW