Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
602 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STORMY DAY...WITH MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER OK/TX REGION SLOWLY
MOVES EAST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE PARENT LOW WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AFTER 15Z WILL DEPEND UPON THE FRONTS POSITION.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION COULD CREATE
WIND GUSTS OVER 30KTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL. KEPT THE PRECIP
CHARACTER AS VCTS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE
OF HEAVIER CONVECTION AFTER DUSK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011/
CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM FRONT STALLS WILL
DETERMINE SPECIFIC WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE DAY...AND THAT
POSITION IS YET A LITTLE MORE REFINED THIS MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA...INCLUDING CHANCES
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR NEXT WEEK...A CLEARER
FORECAST PICTURE IS BEGINNING TO EMERGE...AT LEAST WITH REGARD TO
TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF SOME OF THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. AS
USUAL...MORE DETAILS FOLLOW BELOW.

SFC/LOW-LVL FRONTOGENESIS AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG A WARM
FRONT IS GIVING RISE TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MISS/WESTERN TN INTO NORTHERN AL THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS AIDED
IN DEVELOPMENT BY ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ASSOC/W AN AMPLE
30-40 KT LOW/MID LVL JET. THE SFC WARM FRONT IS A LITTLE MORE
DIFFUSE IN OUR EASTERN AREAS...BUT AS A SFC LOW SLOWLY EJECTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME MORE
DESCRIPT FROM WEST TO EAST. WEAK MID-LVL SHORT WAVES WILL RIDE
QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN...AND GIVE
RISE TO FURTHER CONVECTION AS THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS MORNING. SFC STREAMLINE PROGS FROM A
CONSENSUS OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
WILL SETUP NEARLY ALONG THE TN RIVER CORRIDOR...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE
SOUTH. WHERE EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY SETS UP IS IMPORTANT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS. ENHANCED SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR LOW-LVL STORM ROTATION AND INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SVR WEATHER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO STAY JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO
CREATE THUNDER AND SMALL HAIL. RAIN CORES COULD BECOME PARTICULARLY
HVY...BUT STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY ALONG TO THE E-NE AT ABOUT
40 MPH. COUPLED UPR JET STREAKS WILL ENHANCE BROAD SCALE LIFT OVER
THE TN VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING...SO EXPECTING SHOWERS/STORMS TO
EXPAND GRADUALLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. REPEATED SHOWERS AND
POTENTIALLY HVY STORMS WILL PRESENT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLASH
FLOODING THIS MORNING AS WELL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL STILL BE DRAPED W-E ACROSS OUR
AREA...PERHAPS IN THE SAME LOCATION. LARGE SCALE LIFT MAY WEAKEN A
LITTLE AS THE UPR JET CONFIGURATION WEAKENS A LITTLE.
THUS...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...LIFT IN ASSOC/W THE STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE. AS THE
SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY...SFC
WINDS WILL TEND TO BACK A LITTLE. THE INCREASED LOW-LVL CONVERGENT
FLOW SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO SCTD CONVECTION. AS CELLS MOVE
NORTHWARD AND TAP INTO THE SHEAR-ENHANCED ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE
FRONT...SUPERCELLS AND SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. NORTH OF THE
FRONT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE HVY RAIN FROM
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE SFC LOW WILL RIDE TO THE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT...PUSHING INTO NW ALABAMA BY ABOUT 06Z. ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG
THE FRONT AND JUST EAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT
A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR ROTATING SUPERCELLS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE...AS WILL THE THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHILE THE LOW-LVL JET INCREASES.
AGAIN...THE THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST IN ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT ULTIMATELY WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS.

THE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN TOW BY 12Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT. FOR THE FORECAST...WILL HANG ON TO TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
TOTAL PRECIP THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO BE AROUND TWO INCHES AREAWIDE...GIVE OR TAKE A HALF INCH OR SO.
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ESF. OTHERWISE FOR SUNDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE 50S...AND THE FORECAST WILL HEDGE
TOWARDS MORE CLOUD COVER.

CONTINUING CAA WILL DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 ON
MONDAY MORNING. A QUICK-MOVING WEAK UPR WAVE MAY INSTIGATE LIGHT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT IN
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY THOUGH...SO WILL JUST FORECAST A SLGT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POP. IF LIGHT PRECIP DOES OCCUR...TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP.

IN THE FAST MOVING QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE ROCKIES BY TUES...AND GIVE
RISE TO CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PLAINS. GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/ECMWF ARE
SHOWING MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES IN 26/00Z
RUNS...LEADING TO HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOW. THE SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NW-N WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DUE MAINLY
FOR THE 00-12Z TIMEFRAME ON WED. DUE TO INCREASED TIMING
CONFIDENCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD.
INSTABILITY LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL FAR TOO
EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH IMPACTS. LIKELY...THIS WILL CONSIST
OF A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH SOME ROTATIONAL
SEGMENTS.

ANOTHER UPR WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURS/THURS
NIGHT GENERATING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH INCLUDES A WEAKER UPR WAVE. HOWEVER OF
NOTE...SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE PROGGING A STRONG UPR WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX
LATE THURS INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RSB
DISCUSSION...KDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
450 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-261915-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
450 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA...CLOSE TO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELIEST ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY TODAY. NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...THE GREATEST THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION...STORMS WILL BE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
CONTINUE...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

KDW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ALZ001>004-261245-
COLBERT-FRANKLIN-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
658 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLBERT...FRANKLIN...LAUDERDALE
AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 656 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM IUKA TO MANTACHIE...
OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM IUKA TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF FULTON...
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  POGO...MYNOT.
  PLEASANT SITE...BARTON.
  OAKLAND...SRYGLEY CHURCH.
  PRIDE LANDING...POSEY LOOP.
  FLORENCE...NEW BETHEL.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS OR CREEKS
AND STREAMS IN THE AREA.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3487 8810 3487 8729 3430 8728 3432 8811
      3433 8817
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 269DEG 43KT 3478 8809 3431 8846

CA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
712 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ALZ008-010-261245-
DE KALB-MARSHALL-
712 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 710 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE RIDGE...OR NEAR FORT PAYNE...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  VALLEY HEAD...MENTONE.
  SULPHER SPRINGS.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3449 8556 3438 8562 3437 8565 3426 8577
      3424 8583 3420 8584 3420 8604 3425 8622
      3453 8594 3462 8579 3466 8576 3479 8557
      3452 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 266DEG 46KT 3448 8574

CA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
746 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ALZ002>004-261330-
COLBERT-FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-
746 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLBERT...FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 745 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKWOOD...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PLEASANT RIDGE...
  NEWBURG...
  LA GRANGE...WHITEOAK.
  MT HOPE.
  LANDERSVILLE...HATTON.
  MOULTON.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 8794 3471 8713 3439 8711 3434 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 263DEG 44KT 3444 8780

RSB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
836 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

ALZ004>009-261415-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MARSHALL-MORGAN-
836 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JACKSON...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...
MADISON...MARSHALL AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

AT 825 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NEAR MOULTON TO JUST
EAST OF THE OWENS CROSSROADS AREA...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
 SOMERVILLE.
 MORGAN CITY.
 LACEY SPRINGS.
 FLORETTE.
 OWENS CROSSROADS.
 GRANT.
 WOODVILLE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 8613 3432 8712 3432 8753 3450 8751
      3461 8745 3477 8597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1330Z 180DEG 0KT 3404 8635

KTW

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