Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
318 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

.DISCUSSION...

A RAINY DAY TODAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES WEST OF I-65. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BRING US OUR
MAIN ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL TO OUR WEST EXTENDING FROM SE
ARKANSAS TO SW LA. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT HOW MUCH
OF A TORNADO THREAT WE WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
AXIS.

HOWEVER...SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS OCCURRING JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN MS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING
850 MB JET STREAK DEVELOPING OVER MS AND NW AL. THIS MAY YET GIVE US A
TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WITH THE
FRONT AND THE STRONGER FORCING TONIGHT. TIMING IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA WILL
LIKELY BE BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM...NORTH CENTRAL AL BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT...AND NE ALABAMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. MODELS ARE IN
SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT...BUT HINT AT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WRAPPING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY...SO LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF...AS ZONAL FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S. CLOUDS SHOULD PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER WEAKER
COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CLOUD COVER BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THIS BOUNDARY IS THE FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM.
MODELS MEANDER THIS BOUNDARY NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS TO BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD...BUT NOT A WASHOUT. AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NW AL.
THIS COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER MORE DEFINITE ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...JUST LEFT 30
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    53  67  42  74  50 / 100  20   0   0  10
SHOALS        52  65  42  74  49 /  80  20   0   0  10
VINEMONT      52  65  41  70  51 / 100  20   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  52  63  41  70  49 / 100  20   0   0  10
ALBERTVILLE   52  65  41  70  49 / 100  20   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    53  65  40  72  46 / 100  20   0   0  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-160300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1255 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH 2 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO THE PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...MOVES NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER RUN A HIGHER RISK OF SEEING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED TIMING FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF I-65 AND SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

ONE FINAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE ENTIRE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY END ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM...
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BETWEEN 10 PM
AND MIDNIGHT...AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RSB/CCC/DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
137 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0127 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE SRYGLEY CHURCH    34.59N 87.88W
04/15/2011                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JONES ROAD AT EVENING SHADE ROAD...TREES BLOWN INTO
            POWERLINES AND OVER ROADWAY.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     LIGHTNING        5 SSW FLORENCE          34.74N 87.71W
04/15/2011                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SMOKE REPORTED AROUND
            RESIDENCE.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
240 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE HATTON            34.54N 87.41W
04/15/2011                   LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD 161 NEAR HATTON. PUBLIC REPORTS
            WATER IS GETTING HIGHER AND ROAD MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE
            SOON.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
241 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE HATTON            34.54N 87.41W
04/15/2011                   LAWRENCE           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD 161 NEAR HATTON. PUBLIC REPORTS
            WATER IS GETTING HIGHER AND ROAD MAY BECOME IMPASSIBLE
            SOON.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
333 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG TUSCUMBIA               34.72N 87.72W
04/15/2011                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON FRANKFORT STREET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
346 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHEFFIELD               34.76N 87.67W
04/15/2011                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE

&&