Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
519 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS.
&&

.AVIATION...
WDSPRD SHRA/TSRA WITH EMBEDDED +RA WILL ARRIVE AT KMSL BY 13Z AND
KHSV BY 14Z.  STRONGER TSRA ARE PSBL IN THE KHSV VCNTY...BUT THE
GREATER THREAT WILL BE SE OF KHSV. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KMSL
~15Z AND THE KHSV AREA BY ~18Z.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW-N AND
GUST AT TIMES OVER 25KT.  RA/-RA WILL PERSIST AFT FROPA...BUT THE TS
RISK WILL GO DOWN WITH PCPN TAPERING OFF BY THIS EVENING. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR CONDS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER RAIN. VFR CONDS
SHOULD ARRIVE 10-11Z.
&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 411 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011/
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE WEATHER FOR THE
SOUTHEAST ARE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
ARK-LA-TX AND A NEAR-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY (EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHERN ARK ACROSS MEMPHIS AND TOWARD CENTRAL KY). WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND SOME EMBEDDED TSRA COVER MUCH OF TN/KY/MS/AL/GA ASSOCIATED WITH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE POOLING UP FROM THE GULF AND BROAD SCALE LIFT
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SYSTEM. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ARE
GENERALLY ABOVE 60-65 DEGREES...WITH 70S ALONG THE GULF COAST. A
VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROF AND AN INCREASING
LL JET ARE TRACKING INTO WESTERN MS AND TAPPING INTO THE COASTAL
MOISTURE...SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY REMAINS IN THE STRENGTH FOR SHRA/TSRA
TODAY AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FINALLY PUSH NE AND OUT OF
THE AREA. THE RUC AND GFS BOTH POINT TO THE LL JET INTENSIFYING AND
PUSHING NE TOWARD OUR SE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD
KNOXVILLE TN. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH SOME DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (AFTN CAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 500J/KG DUE TO SOME CAA AT
850MB HELPING ERODE A CAP) AND DECENTLY VEERING LL WIND PROFILES.
THIS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY TO DMG
WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME ROTATING STORMS. PWAT VALUES INDICATE THAT
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...BUT ATTM
1HR FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA
SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

/THE BEST SUPPORT SILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOT CLEARING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SE CWA./

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY...WITH THE SE SEEING
SOME LATE AFTERNOON WARMING BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION (BEHIND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER S MO / CENTRAL IL) BUT SHOULD
PUSH INTO THE CWA BY THIS EVENING AND DRASTICALLY DROP THE LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE 60S SEEN THIS MORNING. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID 30S IN THE NW TO AROUND 40 IN THE SE.

ONE OTHER NOTE FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. AROUND 00Z...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION BELOW
800MB ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG DUCT FUNCTION (GREATER THAN 10C). WITH
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT (PRIMARILY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT).

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER
LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND DRAPING A FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TREND
IN OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS FRONT STALLING OUT AND CREATING
A REPEAT OF EVENTS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH A SW-NE
CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL JUST OFF TO OUR NW ON SUN-MON. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE DAMPED 500MB FLOW AND
CLEAR THE STALLED FRONT OUT OF THE AREA...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THIS TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITHOUT MUCH UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SLOWING TREND CONTINUES
AND PUTS THE TN VALLEY IN A REGION OF SHRA/TSRA FOR THANKSGIVING...SO
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...CCC
AVIATION...KULA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
732 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

ALZ003-004-161400-
FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-
732 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 800 AM CST...

AT 730 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED NEAR DUKETON...OR 13 MILES
SOUTH OF RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PHIL CAMPBELL...SPRUCE PINE.
  PLEASANT RIDGE...RUSSELLVILLE.
  THARPTOWN.
  NEWBURG.
  MT HOPE...LANDERSVILLE.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS.
SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8761 3431 8790 3432 8790 3457 8771
      3456 8731 3431 8752 3430 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 1332Z 249DEG 35KT 3434 8779

KULA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
802 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

ALZ004-161430-
LAWRENCE-
802 AM CST WED NOV 16 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY UNTIL 830 AM
CST...

AT 759 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HATTON...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF MOULTON...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CHALYBEATE SPRINGS...WHEELER.
  HILLSBORO...SPEAKE.
  CADDO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3462 8750 3463 8748 3465 8748 3465 8745
      3466 8744 3473 8715 3472 8713 3469 8711
      3430 8711 3430 8739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1402Z 265DEG 36KT 3457 8735

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