Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
256 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF
CDFNT/UPPER LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ATTM...CDFNT EXTENDS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY THRU WRN TN AND INTO ERN LA...WHILE UPPER LOW WAS
OVER NRN MO. RADARS WERE SHOWING A FEW SCT SHRA/TSRA MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A REPORT OF SMALL HAIL (1/4 INCH) IN THE HSV AREA.

THIS EVENING...CDFNT WILL ENTER NW AL BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM...IN THE
HSV AREA ARND 7 PM AND OUT OF NERN AL BY MIDNIGHT. BASED ON TIMING OF
THE CDFNT AND STABILITY INDICES WILL KEEP PCPN (BEGINNING AT 7 PM) AS
ALL SHRA FROM THE HSV AREA AND POINTS WEST. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE MORE UNSTABLE EAST OF I65...WILL GO WITH SHRA AND TSRA.
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD SVR WX
IS NOT EXPECTED. IN STRONGER STORMS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
EAST OF I65.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...MUCH COLDER/STABLE AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MRNG
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHRA IN THE FCST.

WEDNESDAY...TIME SECTIONS SHOW LOTS OF WRAP ARND LOW CLOUDS THRU THE
PERIOD. ALSO WITH 5H TEMPS ARND MINUS 20C...INSTABILITY SHOWERS
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A RAW/WINDY DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA DUE TO UPPER LOW STILL AFFECTING THE CWA.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE TN VALLEY ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS MAY BE HARD TO BURN OFF...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MRNG HOURS.
THIS CLOUD COVER AND ANY WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST FROM DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MRNG.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FRIDAY MRNG.
DEPENDING ON WINDS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS THE CWA. FROST
WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SATURDAY MRNG. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH COOL
TEMPS.

SUNDAY...GFS HINTS AT A DRY CDFNT APPROACHING THE CWA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A LOW POP ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE NIGHT TIME
ONLY.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...RIDGING WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS 40 TO 45.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    43  53  39  59  38 /  90  30  20  10  10
SHOALS        42  54  39  60  39 /  90  30  20  10  10
VINEMONT      43  52  38  58  39 /  90  30  20  10  10
FAYETTEVILLE  42  52  38  58  36 /  90  30  20  10  10
ALBERTVILLE   46  55  39  58  38 /  90  30  20  10  10
FORT PAYNE    47  53  39  58  37 /  90  30  20  10  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1153 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-190600-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1153 AM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN
DIAMETER.

ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING HOWEVER...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 3/4 OF AN INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SAND AND
LOOKOUT MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES HOVERING IN THE
LOWER 50S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FROST DEVELOPING BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...MAINLY IN RURAL WIND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. A
LIGHT FREEZE CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDEST LOCATIONS...
LIKE LOWER VALLEYS...ON SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JMS/DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
145 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

ALZ006-TNZ096-181915-
LINCOLN-MADISON-
145 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWEST
MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 144 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR GLADSTONE...OR 7 MILES
WEST OF MERIDIANVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  ELKWOOD...HAZEL GREEN.
  FISK...TAFT.
  BELLEVIEW...LINCOLN.
  SKINEM...CARMARGO.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3511 8640 3476 8659 3477 8679 3493 8679
      3511 8673
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 200DEG 21KT 3490 8668

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
212 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

TNZ076-096-182000-
LINCOLN-MOORE-
212 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR BELLEVIEW...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
FAYETTEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  CRYSTAL SPRINGS.
  MOLINO...FAYETTEVILLE.
  KELSO...SMITHLAND.
  MULBERRY...MIMOSA.

SEEK SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8626 3536 8624 3499 8645 3500 8671
      3536 8655 3536 8649 3533 8645 3533 8642
      3535 8641 3537 8634 3541 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 203DEG 25KT 3504 8657

DJN