Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
312 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. OUR CWA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A WEAK
CONVERGENCE ZONE TO OUR SE (THAT SPARKED CONVECTION THE PAST SEVERAL
AFTERNOONS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER WESTWARD WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE) AND A MUDDLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NW. AS OF THE
WRITING OF THIS PRODUCT...VERY FEW STORMS HAVE CROSSED OUR CWA
BORDERS BUT IT IS ESSENTIALLY A MATTER OF TIME AS WE ARE ALL BUT
SURROUNDED BY CONVECTION. WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW...HIGH PWAT
VALUES...MDPI VALUES NEAR AN INCH...AND A CLASSIC INVERTED V SOUNDING
POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL RATES AND STRONG WINDS. STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ARE EXHIBITING MORE PROGRESSIVE STORM MOTION DUE TO THE
SLIGHTLY GREATER MID LEVEL SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE
FOR CONCERN DUE TO THE LARGE NUMBER OF OUTDOOR EVENTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STATIONARY FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS TN AND
PLACES THE CWA IN THE CONTINUED MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HAVE DROPPED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD
COVER AND SHRA/TSRA INCREASE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE THE NAM DROPS HIGHS INTO THE LOW/MID 80S THE GFS KEEPS HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S...HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO AND STUCK WITH
MAX TEMPS AROUND 90 IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S IN THE EAST.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS A FAIRLY
COMMON SUMMERTIME SETUP CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIMPLY ALLOW FOR REPEATED BOUTS OF WEAK ENERGY TO
WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW...PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN
HIGH (1.5-2+ INCHES) THROUGH THE WEEK AND SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO CONTINUE.  AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD
AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP INTO MID/UPPER 90S THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO CLIMB BACK NEAR 100 FOR MUCH
OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
FROM 18Z TAFS...TAF FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS CENTER AROUND
THE EFFECTS OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCTD CONVECTION AS THEY DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN AL. BEST TIMING PUTS THE BOUNDARIES NEAR KMSL/KHSV ARND
21-22Z. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT VCTS IN TAFS...BUT NOT A
PREVAILING TSRA GROUP. STILL NOT SURE ABOUT COVERAGE OF RESULTING
CELLS GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IF A HVY CELL DOES MOVE OVER A
TAF SITE THEN IFR OR PERHAPS LOWER CIGS/VIS COULD OCCUR IN ADDITION
TO STRONG W-NW WIND GUSTS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN
THE EVENING...THEN MORE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AS AN
UPR WAVE PUSHES IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  89  70  90  71 /  40  50  30  40  30
SHOALS        73  90  72  91  71 /  50  50  30  40  30
VINEMONT      71  88  69  89  73 /  40  50  30  40  30
FAYETTEVILLE  71  88  71  89  71 /  40  50  30  40  30
ALBERTVILLE   69  89  69  89  70 /  40  50  30  40  30
FORT PAYNE    68  88  68  89  69 /  30  50  30  40  30

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...CCC
AVIATION...KDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
106 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-050300-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
106 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ALABAMA AROUND 3 TO 4 PM. THESE STORMS WILL THEN AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 4 PM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL BE FAIRLY COMMON
THIS AFTERNOON...SO THOSE INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD TAKE
THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PREVENT HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY...PERHAPS
STARTING IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND ANOTHER FRONT LATER IN THE
WEEK WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KDW

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