Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
254 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE DAY WEATHER-WISE IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ONGOING AND
DEVELOPING AT THIS HOUR. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION...AND
THEREFORE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM THIS
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT GRADUALLY MEANDERS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA.

THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MORE DETAILS TO
FOLLOW...

FOR TONIGHT...STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/SOLAR INSOLATION. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEFORE ENDING COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINFALL...HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE GRIDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ATTM...BUT THE
TREND OVERNIGHT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW DEGREES DUE TO THE DEWPOINTS REMAINING
HIGHER THAN ADVERTISED BY MOS GUIDANCE THANKS TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

TOMORROW'S FORECAST WILL BE AN INTERESTING ONE /AS WILL BE THE
WEEKEND IN GENERAL/. HAVING RETAINED THE 30-POP FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME WILL DEPEND
HEAVILY ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT
THINKING AND MODEL ANALYSIS DOES NOT SUGGEST QUITE THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW OR SUNDAY...THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY. PWATS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
APPROACHING 2 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ASIDE FROM ANY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. GIVEN THE AMPLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TRANSLATING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL MUGGY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EARLY
NEXT WEEK SURPASSING THE 100-DEGREE MARK. WITH AN UPPER LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEAST...THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PIECES OF ENERGY TRAVERSING THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST. AT THAT TIME...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WITH A COLD FRONT IN TOW. THIS FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY JUST IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  92  70  94  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
SHOALS        73  91  71  94  72 /  20  30  20  30  10
VINEMONT      73  89  72  92  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
FAYETTEVILLE  72  89  69  91  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
ALBERTVILLE   73  89  70  92  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
FORT PAYNE    70  88  69  89  68 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
209 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-250315-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
209 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND
SOUTHERN TENNESSEE THROUGH 9 PM CDT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES.

THE MAIN THREATS POSED BY STRONGER STORMS INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS REPEATEDLY
AFFECT THE SAME AREA...COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLEASE RELAY ANY DAMAGE REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
AGENCY...OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS.

12

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