Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1215 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS
&&

.AVIATION...WHILE SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NOT QUITE AS EXTENT OR
WIDESPREAD AS TUE...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ARE TRYING TO FORM
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...AIDED BY A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION. IN ANY CASE...ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...WITH CEILINGS HOVERING NEAR MVFR LEVELS...WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE EVENING PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING. REDUCED VIS/GUSTING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE TERMINALS...IN AND NEAR
THE HEAVIER TSTMS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS/TSTMS IS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
MID HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. DEGREE OF HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL DETERMINE
THE EXTENT/STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE SHOULD
AT LEAST RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH
THE EVENING PERIOD. MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO HAVE THIS
PATTERN REPRESENTED WELL AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RUC
ANALYSIS INDICATE A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWARD
INTO TEXAS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS FRONT...AN MCS OVER EAST
TEXAS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY EASTWARD WHILE CLOUD TOPS WARM. CLOSER
TO HOME...THE RADAR INDICATES ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE IN THE
AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE HRRR ADVERTISING AN OUTCROPPING OF
THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI AND
SPREADING INTO THE CWFA BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LOCALLY RUN
WRF SHYS AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY NAM/GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT THROUGH ABOUT 15 OR
16Z. HOWEVER GIVEN THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH MIDLEVEL
ASCENT /AS SEEN ON ISENTROPIC SURFACES/...FEEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. AFTER THE MORNING
ACTIVITY...THERE MAY BE A SMALL BREAK WHILE THE EAST TEXAS MCS
FLUSHES EAST/NORTHEAST. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE CWFA...WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SKINNY CAPE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER DAY WITH A GUSTY AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AREA-WIDE. IN ADDITION...H85 TDS AOA 14C AND
PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES SUGGEST ANY OF THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. MAY YET SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE AREA...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...AND EXPECTING MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY AS A THETAE
TROUGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND VORT LOBES PUSH INTO THE AREA. SOUNDINGS FOR FRIDAY INDICATE
ANOTHER DAY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CAPES RISE ABOVE 3K J/KG.
IN FACT...SPC HAS THE AREA OUTLINED IN A DAY THREE SLIGHT RISK. IN
COMPARISON TO THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY...SOUNDINGS FOR
FRIDAY SHOW MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT...AND AS A RESULT SLIGHTLY
LOWER PWAT VALUES. DESPITE THE LOWER NUMBERS...COULD STILL SEE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER TEXAS...PUTTING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
TRICKY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 70S.
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...09
PREV DISCUSSION...JLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-230500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1200 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. RUNOFF FROM
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY ALSO CAUSE A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN STATES. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY DURING
THIS PERIOD.

MAIN THREATS POISED BY THE STRONGER STORMS INCLUDE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECT THE SAME AREA...COULD LEAD TO INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
115 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

ALZ008>010-016-221915-
CULLMAN-DE KALB-JACKSON-MARSHALL-
115 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN...DEKALB...JACKSON AND
MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS BEATY CROSSROADS TO UNION GROVE TO
BALDWIN...OR ALONG A BROKEN LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHEAST
OF RAINSVILLE TO 7 MILES WEST OF GUNTERSVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CULLMAN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  SULPHER SPRINGS...HENAGAR.
  JOPPA...ARAB.
  SYLVANIA...POWELL.
  GUNTERSVILLE.
  RAINSVILLE...HAMMONDVILLE.
  MOUNTAIN VIEW.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 8567 3418 8617 3413 8632 3429 8649
      3420 8699 3431 8670 3431 8658 3436 8657
      3479 8556 3458 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 270DEG 26KT 3470 8563 3439 8636
          3421 8690

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
211 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

ALZ001-002-222015-
COLBERT-LAUDERDALE-
211 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLBERT AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AROUND CHEROKEE...OR 14 MILES EAST
OF IUKA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PRIDE LANDING.
  OAKLAND...THREET.
  CLOVERDALE...SHEFFIELD.
  UNDERWOOD-PETERSVILLE...FLORENCE.
  SAINT FLORIAN...ZIP CITY.
  KILLEN.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8737 3479 8742 3472 8743 3470 8811
      3482 8808 3488 8810 3489 8810 3489 8811
      3500 8814 3500 8726
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 257DEG 32KT 3483 8790

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
217 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

ALZ007>010-016-222000-
CULLMAN-DE KALB-JACKSON-MARSHALL-MORGAN-
217 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN...DEKALB...JACKSON...
MARSHALL AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 212 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A LINE OF STRONG BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS FROM TRENTON TO 5 MILES NORTH
OF CHIGGER HILL TO FAIRVIEW...OR ALONG A BROKEN LINE EXTENDING FROM
14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRIDGEPORT TO 9 MILES WEST OF RAINSVILLE TO 11
MILES WEST OF ARAB...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  BEATY CROSSROADS...IDER.
  POWELL.
  HENAGAR.
  HOLLY POND.
  BAILEYTON.
  SYLVANIA...HULACO.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3428 8574 3422 8584 3419 8617 3413 8631
      3426 8643 3426 8651 3421 8655 3402 8695
      3440 8691 3451 8615 3487 8558 3453 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 263DEG 15KT 3482 8552 3447 8600
          3431 8668

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
221 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

ALZ003-004-222015-
FRANKLIN-LAWRENCE-
221 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RED BAY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  DEMPSEY...HODGES.
  BELGREEN...DUKETON.
  ROCKWOOD.
  RUSSELLVILLE...ISBELL.
  PLEASANT RIDGE...RUSSELLVILLE.
  THARPTOWN.

THIS THUNDERSTORM COULD INTENSIFY QUICKLY...SO BE READY TO ACT IF A
WARNING IS ISSUED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL TENNESSEE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL
TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS
CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 8814 3457 8760 3457 8753 3458 8751
      3461 8750 3473 8732 3436 8726 3432 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 257DEG 30KT 3443 8806

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