Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
231 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...WENT MAINLY WITH GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE.

STACKED CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THRU
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE AND
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. AT THE
SFC...A LOW WAS OVER IOWA WITH A CDFNT THRU WRN MO AND A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR TONIGHT MAY SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTN/EARLY EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE MAIN THREAT OF SVR WX WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH HVY RAIN. OTHERWISE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. ONE THING TO
NOTE IS THAT NAM SHOWS THE CHC OF SHRA/TSRA TAPERING OFF TONIGHT
WHILE GFS KEEPS THE PCPN GOING THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS MAY BE
OVER DOING THE PCPN THREAT TONIGHT A LITTLE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT
STLT/RADAR TRENDS AND HPC PCPN OUTLOOK...GFS LOOKS LIKE THE WAY TO
GO ATTM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT COULD BE UP TO ONE INCH ESPECIALLY
OVER NWRN AL.

FOR WEDNESDAY MRNG THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/TSRA SHOULD BE ON GOING BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS FOR THE MRNG/AFTN HOURS ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL DROP TO LOW
CHC POPS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REST OF THE FCST (THURSDAY THRU TUESDAY)...NOT A LOT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SO WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING THRU THE PERIOD.
THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE CHC OF PCPN ON THURSDAY. GFS
SHOWS ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG S/W MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ON
FRIDAY...THUS WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS. NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A CDFNT IS
PROGGED TO STALL OUT OVER TN. AGAIN NOT REAL CONFIDANT WITH THIS
SCENARIO BUT WILL KEEP LOWS POPS IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    73  88  69  90  71 /  60  60  30  30  40
SHOALS        74  88  70  91  70 /  60  60  30  30  40
VINEMONT      73  86  69  89  70 /  60  60  30  30  40
FAYETTEVILLE  73  86  68  88  68 /  50  60  30  30  40
ALBERTVILLE   74  87  69  89  68 /  50  60  30  30  40
FORT PAYNE    69  85  67  87  67 /  50  60  30  30  40

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-220500-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN
AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-
MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW LOCALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING BRIEF DAMAGAING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LEVELS COULD
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING AN ADDITIONAL THREAT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
323 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DOUGLAS                 34.17N 86.32W
06/21/2011                   MARSHALL           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FIFFTY TO SIXTY MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED AND BLEW OFF SOME
            AWNING AT A SCHOOL.

&&

KWEBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

ALZ016-212115-
CULLMAN-
329 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CULLMAN COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

AT 329 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF GOOD HOPE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF
CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  PHELAN...CULLMAN.
  WALTER...SOUTH VINEMONT.
  FAIRVIEW...HOLLY POND.
  BAILEYTON.
  JOPPA.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES...TREE
LIMBS...AND POWERLINES. SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3389 8704 3397 8709 3431 8691 3429 8646
      3425 8649 3425 8652 3420 8655 3409 8666
      3409 8669 3407 8668 3395 8681 3391 8691
      3388 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 220DEG 47KT 3406 8683

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE ARAB              34.33N 86.49W
06/21/2011                   MARSHALL           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 69.

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW PAINTER           34.33N 86.12W
06/21/2011                   MARSHALL           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN ON 4TH STREET.

&&

KWEBER

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>